1004 Laguna Cove Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$285,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,857 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 3,998 sqft lot $153/sqft · 11% below area Est $313k · 9% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the amazing new community of Sunterra, this Springfield Plan by Centex Homes is built to keep growing families connected with a contemporary oversized great room and spacious kitchen and dining area. With all 4 bedrooms upstairs, it adds the flexibility for your family’s needs. Many features include modern grey cabinets, granite countertops, stainless cabinet hardware, upgraded vinyl flooring downstairs, full gutters, sprinkler system, high efficient HVAC, large primary bedroom has double sinks, sep tub & shower with walk in closet and so MUCH MORE. Zoned to Katy ISD. Fridge, Washer and dryer are included.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Modern grey cabinets
• Oversized great room

Tags

• OVERSIZED GREAT ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• MODERN GREY CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPGRADED VINYL FLOORING
• FULL GUTTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-461 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (26.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2728 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,121 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.93%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,935
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -8.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5028 Marcasca Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-1%)	2mo	$301,990	$165	65
4632 Cleo Day Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (+0%)	0mo	$299,990	$161	58
5065 Marcasca Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,102 (+13%)	0mo	$331,990	$158	57
3021 Eagle Bay Dr	0.69mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,884 (+2%)	1mo	$302,990	$161	57
3036 Eagle Bay Dr	0.72mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,884 (+2%)	1mo	$284,990	$151	56
3040 Avalos Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+1%)	1mo	$363,990	$194	56
3007 Fall Gold Ln	0.74mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,884 (+2%)	4mo	$299,990	$159	53
5017 Marcasca Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (-9%)	2mo	$269,990	$160	53
3012 Fall Gold Ln	0.73mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,947 (+5%)	3mo	$319,990	$164	50
3032 Avalos Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-4%)	2mo	$349,990	$195	50
4921 Sun Falls Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,012 (+8%)	3mo	$299,995	$149	44
4633 Cleo Day Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,135 (+15%)	1mo	$309,990	$145	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-83,201
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-139,811
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2728
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,778 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$876 /mo · $10,506/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,361

Max offer price $210,121

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-299	-5% $-380	+0% $-461	+5% $-541	+10% $-622
Rent	-10% $-680	-5% $-570	+0% $-461	+5% $-351	+10% $-241
Rate	-1.0pp $-317	-0.5pp $-388	base $-461	+0.5pp $-535	+1.0pp $-610

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	44d	1	0.40mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	44d	1	0.71mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,599	$1.21	0d	1	0.71mi
2654 Aruba Bend Dr Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1958	$3,015	$1.54	0d	51	0.77mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	0d	17	0.83mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	0.96mi
2845 Shimmer Edge Dr Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	2362	$2,400	$1.02	6d	1	0.98mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	13d	1	0.98mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	25d	1	0.99mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	25d	1	1.01mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	25d	1	1.02mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	1.03mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	13d	1	1.04mi
28625 Clay Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,000	$1.07	44d	1	1.07mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	25d	1	1.10mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	1.13mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	21d	1	1.13mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	1.20mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	44d	1	1.23mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	44d	1	1.23mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	25d	1	1.24mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	44d	1	1.26mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	44d	1	1.27mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	25d	1	1.40mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	25d	1	1.44mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	18d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $285,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $285,000 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-02-09
   price $285,000 634-char remark

   Show marketing remark (634 chars)

   Located in the amazing new community of Sunterra, this Springfield Plan by Centex Homes is built to keep growing families connected with a contemporary oversized great room and spacious kitchen and dining area. With all 4 bedrooms upstairs, it adds the flexibility for your family’s needs. Many features include modern grey cabinets, granite countertops, stainless cabinet hardware, upgraded vinyl flooring downstairs, full gutters, sprinkler system, high efficient HVAC, large primary bedroom has double sinks, sep tub & shower with walk in closet and so MUCH MORE. Zoned to Katy ISD. Fridge, Washer and dryer are included.

4. 2025-12-13
   listed $299,000 Active 634-char remark

   Show marketing remark (634 chars)

   Located in the amazing new community of Sunterra, this Springfield Plan by Centex Homes is built to keep growing families connected with a contemporary oversized great room and spacious kitchen and dining area. With all 4 bedrooms upstairs, it adds the flexibility for your family’s needs. Many features include modern grey cabinets, granite countertops, stainless cabinet hardware, upgraded vinyl flooring downstairs, full gutters, sprinkler system, high efficient HVAC, large primary bedroom has double sinks, sep tub & shower with walk in closet and so MUCH MORE. Zoned to Katy ISD. Fridge, Washer and dryer are included.

5. 2025-12-12
   historical
6. 2025-10-09
   listed $2,300
7. 2025-10-08
   price $310,000
8. 2025-07-22
   listed $320,000 Active
9. 2024-02-15
   historical $2,300
10. 2024-01-26
    price $2,300
11. 2023-12-05
    listed $2,350
12. 2023-02-15
    soldstatus
13. 2023-02-13
    soldstatus Sold
14. 2023-01-18
    status Pending
15. 2023-01-11
    price $313,990
16. 2022-12-22
    listed $319,990 Active
17. 2022-12-22
    historical
18. 2022-11-09
    price $319,990
19. 2022-10-20
    listed $326,090 Active
20. 2022-10-20
    historical
21. 2022-10-17
    price $326,090
22. 2022-10-04
    price $349,990
23. 2022-08-24
    listed $352,770 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,506 · $876/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,506 · $876/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$10,506
• − Insurance: −$2,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,667
• − Management: −$2,667
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$10,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,444
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Sunterra is in good condition with modern finishes and efficient systems, ready for a new owner.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Clean gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Freshens interior and improves comfort
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Clean gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Freshens interior and improves comfort ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-15 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-01-26 Price Changed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2023-12-05 Listed for Rent $2,350 HARMLS
• 2023-02-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-01-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-01-11 Price Changed $313,990 HARMLS
• 2022-12-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-12-22 Listed $319,990 HARMLS
• 2022-11-09 Price Changed $319,990 HARMLS
• 2022-10-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-10-20 Listed $326,090 HARMLS
• 2022-10-17 Price Changed $326,090 HARMLS
• 2022-10-04 Price Changed $349,990 HARMLS
• 2022-08-24 Listed $352,770 HARMLS

Property tax history

+104.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,506 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.