15427 Winter Breeze Ln · Wimauma, FL 33598

$315,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2009 5,000 sqft lot $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a 4 bedroom home in a highly sought after neighborhood? Super spacious Great room that opens to kitchen and lanai, creating a great flow for parties and everyday living. Kitchen offers lots of work for your creations and room to add a table for informal meals plus a counter bar. Master bedroom with walk in closet opens to the screen lanai. 3 other bedrooms perfect for guests or office space. Home features an inside laundry room and a 2 car garage. Homes in this neighborhood are moving quickly so please schedule your appointment to see this today. Close to schools and churches, shopping and restaurants. Minutes to I-75 for easy commuting to Tampa, Orlando as well as the Gulf Beaches.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Open-concept
• Brand new roof

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• FULLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OPEN-CONCEPT
• FENCED IN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: HOA present (annual fee $500; monthly equivalent $41.67) — association requires fees; Community street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east; Residential zoning (PD); Homesteaded
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with approximately 1,618 living area (public records)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Screened porch; Patio; Above-ground private pool; In-county lot; Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 100

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Wimauma — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#699 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Reddick Elementary School (math 34% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 794 students, 78% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,694 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-57,945
• Equity at exit: $56,219

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-82,550
• Equity at exit: $43,396

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,617 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$368 /mo · $4,422/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,775

Max offer price $292,874

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $-36	+0% $-125	+5% $-214	+10% $-304
Rent	-10% $-332	-5% $-229	+0% $-125	+5% $-22	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $33	-0.5pp $-45	base $-125	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,250	$1.27	19d	1	0.60mi
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,250	$1.44	7d	1	0.60mi
10237 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1914	$2,526	$1.32	1d	1	0.71mi
10438 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,500	$1.34	26d	1	0.72mi
10324 Geese Trail Cir Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	0d	1	0.87mi
15416 Gopher Trop Pl Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.0	1771	$2,300	$1.30	26d	1	0.91mi
14525 Scottburgh Glen Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$3,300	$1.94	23d	1	1.03mi
2421 E Del Webb Blvd Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1901	$2,300	$1.21	26d	1	1.12mi
16260 Amethyst Key Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1889	$2,300	$1.22	26d	1	1.21mi
14435 Barley Field Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,231	$1.09	16d	1	1.41mi
15504 Florence Hollow Pl Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,150	$1.20	7d	1	1.48mi
16616 Windmill Forge Pass Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,350	$1.27	26d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $315,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $325,000 Active 1947-char remark
17. 2026-02-24
    historical
18. 2026-01-02
    status Active
19. 2026-01-01
    historical
20. 2025-10-07
    status Active
21. 2025-08-05
    status Active
22. 2025-03-11
    status Active
23. 2025-01-15
    price $335,000
24. 2025-01-08
    price $340,000
25. 2025-01-02
    listed $345,000 Active
26. 2022-01-13
    soldstatus $255,000
27. 2021-10-08
    soldstatus $255,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    Looking for a 4 bedroom home in a highly sought after neighborhood? Super spacious Great room that opens to kitchen and lanai, creating a great flow for parties and everyday living. Kitchen offers lots of work for your creations and room to add a table for informal meals plus a counter bar. Master bedroom with walk in closet opens to the screen lanai. 3 other bedrooms perfect for guests or office space. Home features an inside laundry room and a 2 car garage. Homes in this neighborhood are moving quickly so please schedule your appointment to see this today. Close to schools and churches, shopping and restaurants. Minutes to I-75 for easy commuting to Tampa, Orlando as well as the Gulf Beaches.

28. 2021-09-05
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    Looking for a 4 bedroom home in a highly sought after neighborhood? Super spacious Great room that opens to kitchen and lanai, creating a great flow for parties and everyday living. Kitchen offers lots of work for your creations and room to add a table for informal meals plus a counter bar. Master bedroom with walk in closet opens to the screen lanai. 3 other bedrooms perfect for guests or office space. Home features an inside laundry room and a 2 car garage. Homes in this neighborhood are moving quickly so please schedule your appointment to see this today. Close to schools and churches, shopping and restaurants. Minutes to I-75 for easy commuting to Tampa, Orlando as well as the Gulf Beaches.

29. 2021-09-04
    listed $254,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    Looking for a 4 bedroom home in a highly sought after neighborhood? Super spacious Great room that opens to kitchen and lanai, creating a great flow for parties and everyday living. Kitchen offers lots of work for your creations and room to add a table for informal meals plus a counter bar. Master bedroom with walk in closet opens to the screen lanai. 3 other bedrooms perfect for guests or office space. Home features an inside laundry room and a 2 car garage. Homes in this neighborhood are moving quickly so please schedule your appointment to see this today. Close to schools and churches, shopping and restaurants. Minutes to I-75 for easy commuting to Tampa, Orlando as well as the Gulf Beaches.

30. 2006-08-03
    soldstatus $2,880,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,422 · $368/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,422 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,422
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,512
• − Management: −$2,512
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,919
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,660
• After-tax cash flow: $157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wimauma

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #699
• US rank: #14659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wimauma, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 32,820
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-89.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $340,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-02 Listed $345,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-08 Sold (MLS) $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-04 Listed $254,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $2,880,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,422 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.