319 N Sherman Ave · Lubbock, TX 79415

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1939 7,125 sqft lot $53/sqft · 72% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• En-suite bath
• Rear master suite
• Cozy front porch

Tags

• COZY FRONT PORCH
• REAR MASTER SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATH
• BREAKFAST BAR
• DETACHED METAL CARPORT
• ENCLOSED REAR PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Brick, concrete, and Masonite construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Built as residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Private yard; Storage; Enclosed patio, front porch, and patio; Chain link, wood, full perimeter fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Laminate countertops; Double-pane windows with screens and window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Carmona-Harrison El (593 students, 94% FRL); Cavazos Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 479 students, 97% FRL); Lubbock H S (math 45% / reading 52%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 1,839 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.29%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,222
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -72.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $5,871
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $31,477
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79415

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $784

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $372	-5% $346	+0% $321	+5% $295	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $227	-5% $274	+0% $321	+5% $368	+10% $415
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $344	base $321	+0.5pp $297	+1.0pp $274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 N Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,100	$0.79	44d	1	0.02mi
2512 1st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$900	$0.86	14d	1	0.79mi
2709 Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,050	$0.92	21d	1	0.94mi
707 Avenue T Lubbock, TX	3.0–4.0	3.0–4.0	1559	$474	$0.30	44d	45	0.96mi
2715 Fordham St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	1.05mi
1202 Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	919	$1,653	$1.80	14d	13	1.31mi
1220 Broadway St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,500	$1.61	14d	7	1.39mi
1220 Broadway St Unit 1704 Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1098	$999	$0.91	44d	1	1.39mi
3114 Baylor St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1411	$1,150	$0.82	44d	1	1.41mi
2102 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	44d	1	1.41mi
2108 N Avenue L Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,299	$0.96	44d	1	1.41mi
2101 N Texas Ave Unit 2-B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,295	$1.09	14d	1	1.42mi
2109 North Avenue K Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	44d	1	1.43mi
2109 North Avenue K Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	21d	1	1.43mi
2402 N Avenue O Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,299	$0.98	44d	1	1.44mi
2112 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,325	$1.12	21d	1	1.45mi
2117 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,325	$1.12	44d	1	1.46mi
2114 North Avenue K Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,350	$1.14	44d	1	1.47mi
2125 N Texas Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	44d	1	1.47mi
2118 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,325	$0.98	44d	1	1.48mi
2118 N Jayton Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,325	$1.12	21d	1	1.48mi
2409 13th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	44d	1	1.48mi
2119 North Avenue K Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,450	$1.00	44d	1	1.48mi
2418 North Avenue P Unit P Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,450	$1.10	44d	1	1.49mi
2123 N Jayton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,175	$0.87	44d	1	1.49mi
2420 North Avenue P Unit P Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,399	$1.06	44d	1	1.49mi
2122 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,500	$1.26	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 881-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $89,900 Active 881-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$26/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$616
• After-tax cash flow: $3,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,794
• Household income: $36,468
• Rent vs Own: 62.9% rent · 37.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1287.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 26% Two or more races 19% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.79%
• Current HPI: 165.7933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $89,900 LARMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,328 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.