194 Nickerson Rd · Canton, NY 13617

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1983 1.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located at the end of a dead end road just minutes to the village of Canton, this 3BR 1 bath home offer peace, quiet, relaxation and affordability. .. .the owners of this home are very motivated to sell. All one floor living and an open floor plan make this home efficient to heat and maintain. Nice living room with picture window and lots of natural light, eat in kitchen with island, all appliances included. separate dining area w/ sliding doors to a back deck perfect to BBQ on. laminate hardwood floors and lots of natural dark wood. All 3 BR's have closets and ceilings fans. The "bonus" with this

Key facts

• Generous private lot
• Quiet dead-end road
• Peaceful setting

Tags

• PEACEFUL SETTING
• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD
• GENEROUS PRIVATE LOT
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• ATTACHED COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Gravel parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story
• Construction: Log construction; Shingle roof; Basement with walk-out access
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Fenced yard; Workshop; Satellite dish; Level lot; Public maintained road access; 263' frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Freezer; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Insulated windows; Walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.1% in Canton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#218 in NY, #3,402 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D, amenities D-, commute F.
• Canton Central School District (rural): math 49% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #321 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $180k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $127,305 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.10%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $79,096
• Equity at exit: $162,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $247,987
• Equity at exit: $349,700

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13617

• Home prices YoY: 22.5%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,524/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $127,305

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-196	-5% $-247	+0% $-298	+5% $-349	+10% $-400
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-349	+0% $-298	+5% $-248	+10% $-197
Rate	-1.0pp $-208	-0.5pp $-253	base $-298	+0.5pp $-345	+1.0pp $-392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $180,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $180,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   remarks 695-char remark
4. 2026-05-31
   listed $180,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,524 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,524 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$3,524
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$6,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,632
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606470
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,157
• Composite: 46.27/100
• National rank: #2481
• State rank: #321 of 590 in NY

Livability — Canton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #3402

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,294

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 56.56%
• Current HPI: 308.0415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+46.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $180,000 SLCMLS
• 2015-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $82,700 Public Records
• 2015-02-06 Sold (MLS) $82,700 SLCMLS
• 2015-02-06 Sold (MLS) $82,700 CNYIS
• 2014-11-21 Listed $100,000 SLCMLS
• 2014-11-21 Listed $100,000 CNYIS
• 2014-11-13 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2014-10-18 Listed $123,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,524 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.