12127 Kingsley Trl · Ruskin, FL 34219

$417,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,605 sqft · Land · 45 Days on market

Built 2025 6,351 sqft lot $147/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Receive up to $15,000 towards closing costs and special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender + $5,000 towards upgrades - Now through Sunday, May 31st. This two-story, all concrete block constructed, two-car garage home has a large open-concept downstairs with a kitchen overlooking the living and dining room. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator, electric range, microwave, and built-in dishwasher. The first floor also features a flex room that provides an area for work or for play, a secondary bedroom, and a full bathroom. The second floor includes an expansive Bedroom 1, three additional bedrooms that surround a second living area, a third full b

Key facts

• 6,351 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,675; Total monthly fees listed as $147 (total annual fees $1,764)
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $147); Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool, and sidewalks; Association approval required; Association managed by ICON Management Services Florida, LLC; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20x20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-05-08); Two levels; Facing northeast; Residential property in a planned development (PD-MU)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by D.R. Horton (model: Hayden); Builder license CBC039052; Permit CO BLD2510-2711; Built/expected completion in 2026
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $417k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $393k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $326,213 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-85,973
• Equity at exit: $62,176

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-123,342
• Equity at exit: $36,055

Cash invested: $116,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,262 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,187
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,490/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$147
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$685
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,437

Max offer price $392,625

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,250
• Closing costs: $12,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	3d	1	0.07mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	10d	1	0.29mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	3d	1	0.29mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	12d	1	0.34mi
10832 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,899	$0.98	12d	1	0.58mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	23d	1	1.10mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	16d	1	1.40mi
12227 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3326	$3,500	$1.05	3d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $147 · $1,764/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   price $417,000
3. 2026-05-06
   price $414,000
4. 2026-05-04
   status Active
5. 2026-05-04
   price $428,990
6. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-03
   price $421,990
8. 2026-01-15
   listed $420,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,490 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,461 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$971/yr (+$81/mo · 39.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,358
• − Property taxes: −$2,490
• − Insurance: −$2,085
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,132
• − Management: −$3,132
• − HOA: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$12,131
• Taxable loss: −$8,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,147
• After-tax cash flow: $491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $417,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $414,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $428,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $421,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $420,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,490 · +35.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.