1509 Lafayette Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1952 8,758 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great rehab opportunity minutes from Niagara University! House needs full rehab! There are no utilities on and they will not be turned on prior to closing. There is also no water meter and there will not be one installed prior to closing as seller does not have heat on and has no idea about the condition of the plumbing. Any items left inside the house or outside on the property will not be removed by the seller prior to closing.

Key facts

• 8,758 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story listed (1 total story); Existing structure; Asphalt roof; Aluminum siding; Poured foundation
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Year built: existing
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 79 x 110)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen (approx. 10 x 11)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; One bedroom on the main level; Two bedrooms on the second level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 46.5% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $30,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 143.44%
• DSCR: 7.38
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,390
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4626 Patricia Dr	0.14mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,162 (-1%)	4mo	$175,257	$151	84
4654 Patricia Dr	0.09mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,162 (-1%)	11mo	$160,000	$138	80
1403 Lafayette Ave	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,162 (-1%)	14mo	$195,000	$168	78
5962 Hyde Park Blvd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+0%)	13mo	$248,000	$211	72
4233 Crescent Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,275 (+9%)	10mo	$185,000	$145	62
4331 Crescent Dr	0.20mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-8%)	14mo	$113,000	$105	61
3834 Deveaux St	0.69mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,184 (+1%)	12mo	$153,000	$129	51
807 Maple Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,099 (-6%)	8mo	$215,000	$196	49
3934 Macklem Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-10%)	4mo	$224,720	$213	49
1214 Roselle Ave	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,069 (-9%)	10mo	$179,000	$167	48
1210 Vanderbilt Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,006 (-14%)	7mo	$175,000	$174	43
1112 College Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,246 (+6%)	11mo	$165,000	$132	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.04×
• Total profit: $59,111
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.94×
• Total profit: $133,911
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $1,004

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2814 10th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	1d	1	1.22mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	1d	1	1.50mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	1d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $30,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 433-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $50,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $12,303
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,953
• After-tax cash flow: $9,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $50,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,826 · +28.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.