307 NE Skyline Cir · Lawton, OK 73507

$158,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,309 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1983 Est $147k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 4 bedroom home with many updates. Wood laminate flooring in living and hallway. All new fixtures, carpets, tile in both baths, kitchen, and dining. Stainless steel appliances new within last 2 years, and new front window in October, 2011. Freshly painted. Great kitchen and dining. Covered patio and wood privacy fence.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Giant backyard
• Ceramic tile

Tags

• MAC ARTHUR SCHOOL DISTRICT
• QUIET STREET
• GIANT BACKYARD
• 6FT WOODEN FENCE
• GENUINE HARDWOOD FLOORING
• CERAMIC TILE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway (open parking available)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Brick veneer construction
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Brick veneer
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Wood fencing; Publicly maintained road frontage on a city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Cooktop, Microwave, Dishwasher, Gas water heater; Fireplace: None
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($672/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Carriage Hills Es (math 27% / reading 17%, grade F, #413 of 845 statewide, top 54%, 311 students, 0% FRL); Macarthur Ms (math 16% / reading 31%, grade F, #113 of 345 statewide, top 34%, 865 students, 0% FRL); Macarthur Hs (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #139 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,163 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 208 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,626 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.52%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,608
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2609 NE Euclid	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,290 (-2%)	2mo	$145,000	$112	79
2620 NE Euclid Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (+0%)	6mo	$171,000	$130	76
2713 NE Bell Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+7%)	5mo	$164,500	$118	73
2905 NE Lakeview Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-1%)	17mo	$164,900	$127	71
2908 NE Lakeview Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+7%)	6mo	$156,900	$112	70
2602 NE Lake Ave	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+7%)	18mo	$154,900	$111	66
2711 NE Euclid	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-8%)	6mo	$122,000	$102	64
2603 NE Lake Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (+9%)	21mo	$154,900	$109	60
2637 NE Lake Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+7%)	17mo	$173,000	$124	60
216 SE Coachman Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,400 (+7%)	10mo	$124,900	$89	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-25,695
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-31,992
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73507

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,358/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $101	+0% $56	+5% $11	+10% $-33
Rent	-10% $-50	-5% $3	+0% $56	+5% $109	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $136	-0.5pp $96	base $56	+0.5pp $15	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-05-12
   listed $158,000 Active
4. 2012-02-03
   soldstatus $112,000 330-char remark

   Show marketing remark (330 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bedroom home with many updates. Wood laminate flooring in living and hallway. All new fixtures, carpets, tile in both baths, kitchen, and dining. Stainless steel appliances new within last 2 years, and new front window in October, 2011. Freshly painted. Great kitchen and dining. Covered patio and wood privacy fence.

5. 2012-01-31
   soldstatus $112,000
6. 2011-11-17
   listed $112,000 330-char remark

   Show marketing remark (330 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bedroom home with many updates. Wood laminate flooring in living and hallway. All new fixtures, carpets, tile in both baths, kitchen, and dining. Stainless steel appliances new within last 2 years, and new front window in October, 2011. Freshly painted. Great kitchen and dining. Covered patio and wood privacy fence.

7. 2007-11-15
   soldstatus $108,000
8. 2002-12-30
   soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,358 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,422 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$64/yr (+$5/mo · 4.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$1,358
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$2,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$486
• After-tax cash flow: $1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 21,046
• Household income: $62,132
• Rent vs Own: 42.1% rent · 57.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 979.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Black 13% Native American 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.48%
• Current HPI: 127.057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.25%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+102.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — LBRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — LBRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $158,000 LBRMLS
• 2012-02-03 Sold (MLS) $112,000 LBRMLS
• 2012-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2011-11-17 Listed $112,000 LBRMLS
• 2007-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,358 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.