77 Montgomery · Poughkeepsie, NY 12601

$245,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1900 8,276 sqft lot Est $310k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Build equity in this home. Great bones, home needs renovation but has great features. 4 bedrooms. two baths, Hardwood floors. Recently installed gas Furnace and updated electric. Outside is a 6 bay Garage, with off street parking and is convenient to hospitals, the train station and commuting routes. Needs TLC. Priced for a quick sale. Cash or Rehab loan. More photos to come. Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:4+ Car Detached,

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-820/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (4.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $233k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in Poughkeepsie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#165 in NY, #2,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Poughkeepsie City School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #559 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poughkeepsie Middle School (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #650 of 729 statewide, top 90%, 877 students, 82% FRL); Poughkeepsie High School (math 59% / reading 67%, grade B-, #819 of 1,100 statewide, top 74%, 1,165 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,492/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 2891% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $232,929 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,472
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Carroll St	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,600 (+2%)	6mo	$410,000	$256	77
4 Fairmont St	0.37mi	4/1.5	1,576 (0%)	6mo	$380,000	$241	76
42 Columbia St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,536 (-2%)	6mo	$265,000	$173	65
167 Cannon St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (+2%)	9mo	$309,000	$192	61
152 Montgomery St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (+6%)	16mo	$310,000	$186	59
16 Eastman Ter	0.26mi	4/1.5	1,356 (-14%)	5mo	$265,000	$195	58
235 Mansion St	0.72mi	4/1.0	1,600 (+2%)	12mo	$315,000	$197	50
20 Lent St	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,592 (+1%)	11mo	$355,000	$223	48
6 Fox Ter	0.60mi	4/1.0	1,452 (-8%)	10mo	$290,000	$200	47
21 Edgar St	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,530 (-3%)	14mo	$275,000	$180	44
89 Smith St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,800 (+14%)	3mo	$378,000	$210	35
87 Winnikee Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-14%)	12mo	$175,000	$129	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-42,113
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,230
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12601

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,492 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$650 /mo · $7,800/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,578

Max offer price $232,929

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 S Hamilton St Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	43d	1	0.20mi
1 Grove St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	43d	1	0.33mi
1 Dean Pl Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.5	1700	$4,000	$2.35	13d	1	0.35mi
1 S Hamilton St Unit 3 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	43d	1	0.36mi
36 Pine St Unit Three Bedroom Waitlist Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.0	1299	$3,300	$2.54	43d	1	0.43mi
25 Virginia Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$2,200	$1.91	43d	1	0.43mi
15 Forbus St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	2140	$2,500	$1.17	23d	1	0.44mi
6mt Carmel PL Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.46mi
8 Fox Ter Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	43d	1	0.63mi
32 Balding Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1226	$2,500	$2.04	43d	1	0.70mi
94 Winnikee Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	13d	1	0.71mi
236 Mansion St #2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	2076	$2,600	$1.25	43d	1	0.72mi
77 Marshall St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$2,250	$2.14	43d	1	0.73mi
77 Marshall St Fl 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$2,250	$2.14	23d	1	0.73mi
77 Marshall St Unit 1F Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$2,350	$2.24	43d	1	0.73mi
2 Park Pl Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1380	$1,900	$1.38	23d	1	0.73mi
104 Winnikee Ave #3 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	43d	1	0.73mi
43 High St Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	4.0	1.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	23d	1	0.78mi
40 Parker Ave Apt 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	43d	1	0.84mi
148 Winnikee Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,900	$1.59	43d	1	0.84mi
50 Parker Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	23d	1	0.85mi
50 Parker Ave Unit 3 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	0.85mi
197 Winnikee Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1344	$2,600	$1.93	43d	1	0.93mi
61 Delafield St Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,600	$1.86	13d	1	0.95mi
156 N Clinton St Apt 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.97mi
197 N Hamilton St #2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1056	$2,200	$2.08	23d	1	1.06mi
37 Roosevelt Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	21d	1	1.07mi
18 Innis Ave Unit 1 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1344	$2,500	$1.86	23d	1	1.08mi
15 Hoffman Ave Unit 2 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	13d	1	1.14mi
9 Bartlett St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	1.0	1080	$2,000	$1.85	23d	1	1.19mi
6 Taconic St Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.5	1380	$3,300	$2.39	23d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2024-03-02
   status Pending
2. 2024-02-29
   soldstatus $230,000 Closed 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Build equity in this home. Great bones, home needs renovation but has great features. 4 bedrooms. two baths, Hardwood floors. Recently installed gas Furnace and updated electric. Outside is a 6 bay Garage, with off street parking and is convenient to hospitals, the train station and commuting routes. Needs TLC. Priced for a quick sale. Cash or Rehab loan. More photos to come. Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:4+ Car Detached,

3. 2024-02-13
   status Pending 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Build equity in this home. Great bones, home needs renovation but has great features. 4 bedrooms. two baths, Hardwood floors. Recently installed gas Furnace and updated electric. Outside is a 6 bay Garage, with off street parking and is convenient to hospitals, the train station and commuting routes. Needs TLC. Priced for a quick sale. Cash or Rehab loan. More photos to come. Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:4+ Car Detached,

4. 2023-12-15
   listed $245,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Build equity in this home. Great bones, home needs renovation but has great features. 4 bedrooms. two baths, Hardwood floors. Recently installed gas Furnace and updated electric. Outside is a 6 bay Garage, with off street parking and is convenient to hospitals, the train station and commuting routes. Needs TLC. Priced for a quick sale. Cash or Rehab loan. More photos to come. Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:4+ Car Detached,

5. 2023-12-15
   listed $245,000 Active 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Build equity in this home. Great bones, home needs renovation but has great features. 4 bedrooms. two baths, Hardwood floors. Recently installed gas Furnace and updated electric. Outside is a 6 bay Garage, with off street parking and is convenient to hospitals, the train station and commuting routes. Needs TLC. Priced for a quick sale. Cash or Rehab loan. More photos to come. Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:4+ Car Detached,

6. 2000-12-07
   soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,800 · $650/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,800 · $650/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$7,800
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,392
• − Management: −$2,392
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,142
• After-tax cash flow: $322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poughkeepsie City School District
• NCES district ID: 3623760
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $39,159
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6459
• State rank: #559 of 590 in NY

Livability — Poughkeepsie

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #2577

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poughkeepsie, NY
• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• City population: 86,468
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,164
• Household income: $63,652
• Rent vs Own: 56.8% rent · 43.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2891.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.62%
• Current HPI: 293.9789
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+271.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-29 Sold (MLS) $230,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-15 Listed $245,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-15 Listed $245,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,800 · +33.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.