958 Ny-30 · Wells, NY 12190

$89,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1920 0.72 ac lot $67/sqft · 72% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located in the heart of the southern Adirondacks, this seasonal cabin at 958 State Hwy 30 in Wells, NY has been enjoyed by the same owners for over 40 years as a summer getaway and hunting base camp. Tucked just minutes from thousands of acres of state land, this property offers a great opportunity for outdoor enthusiasts looking for a peaceful retreat close to hunting, hiking, fishing, and snowmobile trails. The first floor features a kitchen, living room, bedroom, and full bathroom. Upstairs is a spacious open bunk room with two separate exits and a wood stove that helps keep the cabin comfortable during cooler Adirondack evenings. The sellers installed a 750-gallon concrete septic system

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Sacandaga river
• Drilled well

Tags

• SPACIOUS OPEN BUNK ROOM
• WOOD STOVE
• DRILLED WELL
• SACANDAGA RIVER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: 100 Amp electric service with circuit breakers; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One story (living area listed as 1,344); Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Built on pier/post/pillar foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the first floor
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Space heater; Wood stove heating
• Interior features: Wood flooring throughout; Five total rooms; Wood-burning stove fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Basement with pier/pillar/post foundation access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#921 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Wells Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #369 of 755 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($619 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Hamilton County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,815 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.08%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,531
• List price: $89,500
• Delta: -71.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $57,227
• Equity at exit: $69,923

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $152,529
• Equity at exit: $140,675

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12190

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,336/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,500 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,500 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,500 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,500 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,500 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,500 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $89,500 Active 1078-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,336 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,424 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,336
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $2,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$537
• After-tax cash flow: $2,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wells Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630450
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,506
• Composite: 48.51/100
• National rank: #4624
• State rank: #369 of 755 in NY

Livability — Wells

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #921
• US rank: #17996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 683

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,374 people
• By 2030: 4,157 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 3,641 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 3,238 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 2,644 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 2,017 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.3% · R 64.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+30.3 2016: R+38.8 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.32%
• Current HPI: 339.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $89,500 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,336 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.