5141 Draco Cir · Orangetree, FL 34120

$346,780

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,790 sqft · Townhouse · 187 Days on market

Built 2025 $317/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

In Progress - SkySail - Avery - Homesite 0102 Come home to the Avery - a beautiful townhome design by award winning Neal Communities. This 2 story townhome includes 3 bedrooms, 2.1 baths and an attached 1 car garage. Upon entering you will be greeted by the spacious living room with a well appointed kitchen and dining space all leading out to your lanai. A powder room and access to the garage are also on the first floor. The bedrooms are on the upper level with two full baths. The images shown are not an exact representation of this feature home.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• $317 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SOFT CLOSING CABINETRY
• DESIGNER SELECTED BACKSPLASH
• UNDER CABINET LED LIGHTING
• GE STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No commercial use allowed; RVs not permitted; Units in complex: 36; units in building: 6; floors in building: 2; this unit is in Building 1
• Financial info: Community Development District tax structure
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with professional management; Quarterly HOA fee; Annual recurring fees total $3,808; One-time fees include a $1,215 special assessment; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool and spa, exercise room, tennis court, pickleball, basketball, bike/jog path, BBQ/picnic area, fishing pier, dog park, streetlights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space; Paved driveway
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water service; Central sewer service; Cable available; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential low-rise building (1–3 stories); 2-story home; 2-story floor plan
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Impact-resistant windows and doors; Vinyl siding; Regular lot; Central irrigation; Rear exposure faces east; View: see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas available; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling; Central electric heating; Natural gas heating available
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Laundry in residence; Screened lanai/porch; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Auto garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $347k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#636 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1124 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,166 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.35%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-77,315
• Equity at exit: $51,706

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-119,247
• Equity at exit: $29,983

Cash invested: $97,098 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34120

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1124
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,399 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,819
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$433 /mo · $5,202/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$317
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,627

Max offer price $320,651

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,695
• Closing costs: $10,403
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4580 Centaurus Cir Naples, FL	4.0	2.5	2428	$3,200	$1.32	21d	1	0.08mi
4003 Pegasus Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1966	$3,300	$1.68	23d	1	0.29mi
4013 Perseus St Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2441	$3,150	$1.29	21d	1	0.39mi
4191 Pegasus Way Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	2014	$4,000	$1.99	21d	1	0.49mi
3660 39th Ave NE Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,900	$2.09	21d	1	1.00mi
4383 Randall Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1735	$3,600	$2.07	23d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $317 · $3,804/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $346,780 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $346,780 Active 186 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $346,780 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $346,780 Active 184 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $346,780 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $346,780 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $346,780 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $346,780 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $346,780 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $346,780 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $346,780 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $346,780 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $346,780 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-01-27
    price $346,780 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    In Progress - SkySail - Avery - Homesite 0102 Come home to the Avery - a beautiful townhome design by award winning Neal Communities. This 2 story townhome includes 3 bedrooms, 2.1 baths and an attached 1 car garage. Upon entering you will be greeted by the spacious living room with a well appointed kitchen and dining space all leading out to your lanai. A powder room and access to the garage are also on the first floor. The bedrooms are on the upper level with two full baths. The images shown are not an exact representation of this feature home.

15. 2026-01-27
    price $346,780

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    In Progress - SkySail - Avery - Homesite 0102 Come home to the Avery - a beautiful townhome design by award winning Neal Communities. This 2 story townhome includes 3 bedrooms, 2.1 baths and an attached 1 car garage. Upon entering you will be greeted by the spacious living room with a well appointed kitchen and dining space all leading out to your lanai. A powder room and access to the garage are also on the first floor. The bedrooms are on the upper level with two full baths. The images shown are not an exact representation of this feature home.

16. 2025-12-13
    listed $366,780 Active
17. 2025-10-14
    price $366,780 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    In Progress - SkySail - Avery - Homesite 0102 Come home to the Avery - a beautiful townhome design by award winning Neal Communities. This 2 story townhome includes 3 bedrooms, 2.1 baths and an attached 1 car garage. Upon entering you will be greeted by the spacious living room with a well appointed kitchen and dining space all leading out to your lanai. A powder room and access to the garage are also on the first floor. The bedrooms are on the upper level with two full baths. The images shown are not an exact representation of this feature home.

18. 2025-06-13
    price $365,330 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    In Progress - SkySail - Avery - Homesite 0102 Come home to the Avery - a beautiful townhome design by award winning Neal Communities. This 2 story townhome includes 3 bedrooms, 2.1 baths and an attached 1 car garage. Upon entering you will be greeted by the spacious living room with a well appointed kitchen and dining space all leading out to your lanai. A powder room and access to the garage are also on the first floor. The bedrooms are on the upper level with two full baths. The images shown are not an exact representation of this feature home.

19. 2025-06-12
    listed $374,151 Active 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    In Progress - SkySail - Avery - Homesite 0102 Come home to the Avery - a beautiful townhome design by award winning Neal Communities. This 2 story townhome includes 3 bedrooms, 2.1 baths and an attached 1 car garage. Upon entering you will be greeted by the spacious living room with a well appointed kitchen and dining space all leading out to your lanai. A powder room and access to the garage are also on the first floor. The bedrooms are on the upper level with two full baths. The images shown are not an exact representation of this feature home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,425
• − Property taxes: −$5,202
• − Insurance: −$3,558
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,263
• − Management: −$3,263
• − HOA: −$3,804
• − Depreciation: −$10,088
• Taxable loss: −$7,818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,876
• After-tax cash flow: $-290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orangetree

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #636
• US rank: #12453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,345
• Household income: $93,861
• Rent vs Own: 9.4% rent · 90.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 409.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 13%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 28% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.18%
• Current HPI: 316.2474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $346,780 Zillow
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $346,780 BEARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $366,780 BEARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $366,780 Zillow
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $365,330 Zillow
• 2025-06-12 Listed $374,151 Zillow