2138 Hobby Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 4,400 sqft lot $184/sqft · 16% below area Est $308k · 16% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and without builder wait, this well-maintained 2021 built home in Forney offers a rare opportunity to own a one-story home in Clements Ranch with no construction delays and all the exterior work already done. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Forney ISD features open-concept living, granite countertops, pantry storage, an eat-in kitchen, and a welcoming living room with a fireplace. The single-story floor plan offers a functional and manageable layout that works well for first-time buyers, downsizers, or buyers seeking a low-maintenance home with modern finishes. The spacious primary suite includes a private bath with separate shower and walk-in closet, while the backyard offers a covered patio, wood fencing, sprinkler system, and established landscaping that many buyers want but do not get with unfinished new construction. Located in a popular master-planned community with pool, clubhouse, and neighborhood amenities, this Forney home for sale also offers convenient access for those commuting to Dallas. Enjoy the comfort of a move-in ready home with the benefit of a completed neighborhood setting and no waiting for construction to finish. Virtually staged images to showcase the room without furniture.

Key facts

• 4,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewis El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 763 students, 50% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 26% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2639 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,862 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.04%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,754
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -13.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2340 Neff Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+0%)	6mo	$269,900	$190	89
2804 Lenham Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	4mo	$243,000	$169	84
2124 Hobby Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+8%)	5mo	$220,000	$144	80
1028 Ingram Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-3%)	6mo	$229,000	$166	73
2031 Jack County Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-4%)	3mo	$245,000	$181	71
1719 Ackerly Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,540 (+9%)	5mo	$260,000	$169	67
1610 Kalamath St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+0%)	2mo	$225,000	$159	66
5520 Yarborough Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+13%)	2mo	$250,000	$157	60
1413 Ganado Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-14%)	6mo	$224,500	$185	56
2041 Henrietta Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+10%)	3mo	$240,900	$154	51
2203 Vance Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+10%)	3mo	$254,900	$163	42
2431 Rosharon Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+12%)	1mo	$248,000	$157	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-76,253
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-118,555
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.2 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $264,800 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 42% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +31.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2639
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,124 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$636 /mo · $7,632/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,742

Max offer price $173,862

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-340	-5% $-414	+0% $-488	+5% $-561	+10% $-635
Rent	-10% $-655	-5% $-572	+0% $-488	+5% $-404	+10% $-320
Rate	-1.0pp $-357	-0.5pp $-421	base $-488	+0.5pp $-555	+1.0pp $-624

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1004 Trickham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,250	$1.23	48d	1	0.25mi
2047 Enchanted Rock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,000	$1.22	53d	1	0.27mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1619	$1,895	$1.17	64d	1	0.36mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1619	$1,895	$1.17	62d	1	0.36mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,895	$1.25	43d	1	0.39mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$1,895	$1.25	40d	1	0.39mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$2,095	$1.39	71d	1	0.39mi
2117 Silsbee Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,995	$1.20	66d	1	0.47mi
2317 Mount Olive Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1728	$2,200	$1.27	38d	1	0.48mi
1080 Norias Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,200	$1.29	10d	1	0.48mi
2143 Erika Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,100	$1.25	28d	1	0.56mi
1037 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	73d	1	0.57mi
1037 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	69d	1	0.57mi
1031 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,950	$1.21	53d	1	0.57mi
17235 Lake Ray Hubbard Dr Unit Labs Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1056	$2,950	$2.79	0d	1	0.61mi
2010 Diamondback Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,099	$1.20	73d	1	0.64mi
2014 Zavala Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$1,900	$1.18	4d	1	0.68mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	62d	1	0.79mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	55d	1	0.79mi
5661 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,945	$1.22	43d	1	0.79mi
5516 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,875	$1.48	93d	1	0.82mi
5537 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,740	$1.40	28d	1	0.82mi
5693 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1685	$1,839	$1.09	56d	1	0.82mi
2116 Hartley Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1582	$1,995	$1.26	27d	1	0.83mi
1304 Broaddus Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1624	$2,100	$1.29	10d	1	0.93mi
2075 Hartley Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	43d	1	0.94mi
1622 Governors Blvd Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,000	$1.67	93d	1	0.99mi
1606 Governors Blvd Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1791	$3,000	$1.68	73d	1	0.99mi
2401 Lalun Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,049	$1.11	43d	1	1.02mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,399	$1.29	73d	1	1.04mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,299	$1.24	51d	1	1.04mi
2157 Clarion Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,975	$1.23	93d	1	1.25mi
4349 Johnstown Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,250	$1.79	19d	1	1.29mi
2412 Bold Venture Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,895	$1.31	93d	1	1.31mi
4307 Johnstown Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,745	$1.40	73d	1	1.32mi
4416 Culrin Way Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	38d	1	1.33mi
4119 Wintergreen Dr Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,500	$1.48	68d	1	1.36mi
4423 Culrin Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1497	$2,250	$1.50	26d	1	1.37mi
4101 Wintergreen Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,645	$1.33	55d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail $58/mo · $696/yr

• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-08-05
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $260,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2025-09-19
   listed $265,000 Active 1238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1238 chars)

   Move-in ready and without builder wait, this well-maintained 2021 built home in Forney offers a rare opportunity to own a one-story home in Clements Ranch with no construction delays and all the exterior work already done. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Forney ISD features open-concept living, granite countertops, pantry storage, an eat-in kitchen, and a welcoming living room with a fireplace. The single-story floor plan offers a functional and manageable layout that works well for first-time buyers, downsizers, or buyers seeking a low-maintenance home with modern finishes. The spacious primary suite includes a private bath with separate shower and walk-in closet, while the backyard offers a covered patio, wood fencing, sprinkler system, and established landscaping that many buyers want but do not get with unfinished new construction. Located in a popular master-planned community with pool, clubhouse, and neighborhood amenities, this Forney home for sale also offers convenient access for those commuting to Dallas. Enjoy the comfort of a move-in ready home with the benefit of a completed neighborhood setting and no waiting for construction to finish. Virtually staged images to showcase the room without furniture.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,632 · $636/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,632 · $636/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$7,632
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$10,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,482
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,065–$21,195 screening

This move-in ready, 2021-built home in Travis Ranch, TX, offers a well-maintained single-story floor plan with modern finishes and no construction delays. It is ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or those seeking a low-maintenance home with a spacious primary suite and open-concept living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New countertops in kitchen — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lewis El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Jackson Middle High North Forney H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-19 Listed $265,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+60.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,632 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.