409 N Fifth St · St. Clair, MI 48079

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,433 sqft · SingleFamily · 117 Days on market

Built 1950 3,049 sqft lot $115/sqft · 20% below area Est $206k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely renovated throughout, new kitchen, flooring, bath. Nice home walking distance to downtown St. Clair.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Built 1950

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• WALKING DISTANCE TO DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.9% in St. Clair — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• East China School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #208 of 540 in MI (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $165k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,557 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,149
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -19.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
606 N Sixth St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+6%)	2mo	$220,000	$145	79
718 N Ninth St	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,468 (+2%)	1mo	$248,000	$169	77
402 S 5th St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,354 (-6%)	3mo	$95,000	$70	73
112 S Tenth St	0.34mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,375 (-4%)	7mo	$200,000	$145	65
310 S 6th St	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,550 (+8%)	4mo	$370,000	$239	64
715 S 9th St	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-2%)	0mo	$127,000	$91	62
615 S 8th St	0.47mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,354 (-6%)	6mo	$168,000	$124	59
209 S 7th St	0.25mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,240 (-14%)	1mo	$195,000	$157	58
517 Cedar St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,548 (+8%)	8mo	$175,200	$113	56
635 N 3rd St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,246 (-13%)	8mo	$215,000	$173	55
841 S 12th St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,570 (+10%)	2mo	$250,000	$159	50
814 S 7th St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+11%)	5mo	$235,000	$148	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-32,308
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-35,189
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48079

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,890/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $149,433

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-41	+0% $-88	+5% $-135	+10% $-182
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-142	+0% $-88	+5% $-34	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $-5	-0.5pp $-46	base $-88	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2700 Cox Rd St Clair, MI	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,099	$0.95	0d	1	1.22mi
322 Hathaway St East China, MI	2.0	1.0	875	$1,800	$2.06	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $165,000 Pending 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-04-24
    price $179,000 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Completely renovated throughout, new kitchen, flooring, bath. Nice home walking distance to downtown St. Clair.

14. 2026-04-24
    price $179,000 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Completely renovated throughout, new kitchen, flooring, bath. Nice home walking distance to downtown St. Clair.

15. 2026-04-08
    price $189,000 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Completely renovated throughout, new kitchen, flooring, bath. Nice home walking distance to downtown St. Clair.

16. 2026-04-08
    price $189,000 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Completely renovated throughout, new kitchen, flooring, bath. Nice home walking distance to downtown St. Clair.

17. 2026-03-11
    price $199,000 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Completely renovated throughout, new kitchen, flooring, bath. Nice home walking distance to downtown St. Clair.

18. 2026-03-11
    price $199,000 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Completely renovated throughout, new kitchen, flooring, bath. Nice home walking distance to downtown St. Clair.

19. 2026-02-17
    listed $210,000 Active 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Completely renovated throughout, new kitchen, flooring, bath. Nice home walking distance to downtown St. Clair.

20. 2026-02-17
    listed $210,000 Active 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Completely renovated throughout, new kitchen, flooring, bath. Nice home walking distance to downtown St. Clair.

21. 2024-03-07
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold
22. 2024-03-07
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed
23. 2024-02-20
    status Pending
24. 2024-02-20
    status Pending
25. 2024-02-03
    price $90,000
26. 2024-02-02
    price $90,000
27. 2024-01-18
    price $123,250
28. 2024-01-17
    price $123,250
29. 2023-11-15
    price $130,500
30. 2023-11-15
    price $130,500
31. 2023-10-17
    price $137,750
32. 2023-10-17
    price $137,750
33. 2023-09-13
    listed $145,000 Active
34. 2023-09-13
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,890 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,890 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,890
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,891
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$934
• After-tax cash flow: $-124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East China School District
• NCES district ID: 2612420
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $56,455
• Composite: 34.23/100
• National rank: #5260
• State rank: #208 of 540 in MI

Livability — St. Clair

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Clair, MI
• Population (ZIP): 12,683

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.23%
• Current HPI: 195.2392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+23.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $179,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $179,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $189,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $189,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $199,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $199,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-17 Listed $210,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-17 Listed $210,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-03-07 Sold (MLS) $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-03-07 Sold (MLS) $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-02-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-20 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-02-03 Price Changed $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-02 Price Changed $90,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-01-18 Price Changed $123,250 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-17 Price Changed $123,250 REALCOMP
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $130,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $130,500 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-17 Price Changed $137,750 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-17 Price Changed $137,750 REALCOMP
• 2023-09-13 Listed $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-13 Listed $145,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,890 · +72.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.