Odyssey Plan · Sonterra, TX 76537

$224,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily · 266 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Odyssey is a great place for any couple or family looking for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. The kitchen features brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and a spacious island. There's room to spread out with a 2-car garage and a covered patio.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $224,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,434.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-430 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,938 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.76%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,434
• List price: $224,990
• Delta: -17.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Dirty Harry Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,412 (0%)	0mo	$257,044	$182	99
124 Perfect World Loop	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+1%)	2mo	$229,000	$161	80
360 Enforcer Loop	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+8%)	3mo	$234,891	$154	78
329 Enforcer Loop	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+8%)	1mo	$268,190	$176	76
240 Line Of Fire Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-3%)	5mo	$234,900	$172	71
381 Enforcer Loop	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,605 (+14%)	6mo	$259,741	$162	64
335 Enforcer Loop	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,605 (+14%)	4mo	$268,020	$167	62
312 The Bad Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-10%)	2mo	$199,999	$157	59
265 Escape Way	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+8%)	3mo	$268,990	$176	59
200 Escape Way	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+8%)	3mo	$274,990	$180	59
225 Firefox Way	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+8%)	3mo	$259,990	$170	58
240 Alcatraz Loop	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,606 (+14%)	6mo	$265,105	$165	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-76,872
• Equity at exit: $40,621

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-122,892
• Equity at exit: $23,555

Cash invested: $76,282 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,429
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,087/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,383

Max offer price $210,267

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,109
• Closing costs: $8,173
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	44d	1	0.21mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	44d	1	0.21mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	3d	1	0.31mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	4d	1	0.31mi
376 Rae Ln Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	22d	1	0.33mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,895	$1.47	18d	1	0.33mi
420 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	4d	1	0.41mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	44d	1	0.44mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	24d	1	0.44mi
125 Unforgiven Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	3d	1	0.55mi
637 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	44d	1	0.59mi
125 Drifter Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,845	$1.05	4d	1	0.60mi
465 Unforgiven Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,750	$1.14	18d	1	0.64mi
195 Outlaw Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$1,799	$1.14	44d	1	0.69mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	24d	1	0.75mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	15d	1	0.77mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	20d	1	0.81mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	4d	1	0.90mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	18d	1	1.04mi
108 Igneous Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,800	$1.17	13d	1	1.04mi
324 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1661	$1,650	$0.99	11d	1	1.05mi
1100 Jackson Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1839	$1,745	$0.95	4d	1	1.11mi
244 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,545	$1.24	20d	1	1.11mi
224 Amber Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,475	$1.30	20d	1	1.21mi
140 Amber Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,749	$1.10	18d	1	1.22mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	44d	1	1.27mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	44d	1	1.30mi
417 Sapphire Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1537	$1,499	$0.98	24d	1	1.30mi
140 Calcite Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,650	$1.18	24d	1	1.33mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	44d	1	1.42mi
400 Captain Grumbles Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,550	$1.06	24d	1	1.46mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	2d	1	1.50mi
5033 Cressler Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1339	$1,595	$1.19	4d	1	1.50mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	2d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,990 Active 266 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,990 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,990 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,990 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,990 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,990 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,990 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,990 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $224,990 Active 252 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,990 Active 251 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,990 Active 250 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,990 Active 249 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,990 Active 248 DOM
14. 2025-12-03
    price $250,990 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    The Odyssey is a great place for any couple or family looking for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. The kitchen features brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and a spacious island. There's room to spread out with a 2-car garage and a covered patio.

15. 2025-10-16
    price $249,990 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    The Odyssey is a great place for any couple or family looking for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. The kitchen features brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and a spacious island. There's room to spread out with a 2-car garage and a covered patio.

16. 2025-10-02
    price $266,990 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    The Odyssey is a great place for any couple or family looking for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. The kitchen features brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and a spacious island. There's room to spread out with a 2-car garage and a covered patio.

17. 2025-09-26
    listed $265,990 Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    The Odyssey is a great place for any couple or family looking for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. The kitchen features brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and a spacious island. There's room to spread out with a 2-car garage and a covered patio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,261
• − Property taxes: −$4,087
• − Insurance: −$1,362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − Depreciation: −$7,925
• Taxable loss: −$10,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,422
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a great value for both resale and rental due to its well-maintained appearance and modern features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New countertops in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New countertops in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $250,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Listed $265,990 Zillow