Odyssey Plan · Jarrell, TX 76537

$233,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily · 364 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Odyssey is a great place for any couple or family looking for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. The kitchen features brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and a spacious island. There's room to spread out with a 2-car garage and a covered patio.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $233,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,240.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-434 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1040 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 87d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,241 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.83%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,240
• List price: $233,990
• Delta: -14.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Dirty Harry Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,412 (0%)	3mo	$257,044	$182	96
124 Perfect World Loop	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+1%)	5mo	$229,000	$161	78
213 Firefox Way	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-2%)	1mo	$274,990	$198	76
329 Enforcer Loop	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+8%)	4mo	$268,190	$176	74
121 Rowdy Yates Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-12%)	2mo	$195,000	$158	60
217 Bronco Billy Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,616 (+14%)	2mo	$229,900	$142	59
220 Escape Way	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+8%)	2mo	$259,990	$170	59
260 Escape Way	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+8%)	2mo	$279,990	$183	58
312 The Bad Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-10%)	5mo	$199,999	$157	57
265 Escape Way	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+8%)	6mo	$268,990	$176	56
468 Josey Wales Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+5%)	2mo	$272,900	$184	54
236 Firefox Way	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,587 (+12%)	1mo	$289,990	$183	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-77,085
• Equity at exit: $40,592

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-123,340
• Equity at exit: $23,538

Cash invested: $76,227 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.9 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $239,945 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 177 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1040
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,428
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$340 /mo · $4,084/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,382

Max offer price $209,471

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-246	-5% $-340	+0% $-434	+5% $-528	+10% $-622
Rent	-10% $-579	-5% $-506	+0% $-434	+5% $-361	+10% $-289
Rate	-1.0pp $-297	-0.5pp $-365	base $-434	+0.5pp $-504	+1.0pp $-576

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,060
• Closing costs: $8,167
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
608 Magnum Force Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,775	$1.27	40d	1	0.01mi
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	139d	1	0.21mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	139d	1	0.21mi
342 Line of Fire Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,595	$1.16	42d	1	0.27mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	100d	1	0.31mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	98d	1	0.31mi
157 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	68d	1	0.33mi
157 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,725	$1.09	76d	1	0.33mi
376 Rae Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	24d	1	0.33mi
376 Rae Ln Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	117d	1	0.33mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	40d	1	0.33mi
273 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,700	$1.27	3d	1	0.35mi
420 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	100d	1	0.41mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	119d	1	0.44mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	139d	1	0.44mi
300 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,750	$1.08	10d	1	0.48mi
128 Dollars Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	78d	1	0.49mi
617 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,795	$1.07	63d	1	0.55mi
125 Unforgiven Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	98d	1	0.55mi
140 Drifter Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1623	$1,840	$1.13	74d	1	0.55mi
637 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	139d	1	0.59mi
125 Drifter Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,795	$1.02	24d	1	0.60mi
125 Drifter Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,795	$1.02	87d	1	0.60mi
465 Unforgiven Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,750	$1.14	113d	1	0.64mi
195 Outlaw Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$1,799	$1.14	140d	1	0.69mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	119d	1	0.75mi
2131 County Road 314 Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,000	$1.20	62d	1	0.75mi
744 Xanadu Dr Unit 53K Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1764	$1,750	$0.99	64d	1	0.76mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	110d	1	0.77mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	88d	1	0.81mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	100d	1	0.90mi
137 Hematite Ln Unit 1 Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,650	$1.25	74d	1	0.90mi
424 Cosmos Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1774	$1,825	$1.03	5d	1	0.91mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	113d	1	1.04mi
108 Igneous Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,800	$1.17	108d	1	1.04mi
344 Circle Way Unit 35E Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,575	$1.13	67d	1	1.05mi
325 Ammonite Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1774	$1,675	$0.94	10d	1	1.05mi
324 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1661	$1,650	$0.99	106d	1	1.05mi
208 Plata Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,750	$1.16	10d	1	1.09mi
448 Major Lee Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$1,650	$0.98	7d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $233,990 Active 364 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $233,990 Active 363 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $233,990 Active 362 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $233,990 Active 361 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $233,990 Active 360 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $233,990 Active 359 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $233,990 Active 358 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $233,990 Active 357 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $233,990 Active 356 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $233,990 Active 355 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $233,990 Active 354 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $233,990 Active 353 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $233,990 Active 352 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $233,990 Active 351 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $233,990 Active 345 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $233,990 Active 344 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $233,990 Active 343 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $232,990 Active 340 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $232,990 Active 339 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $232,990 Active 338 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $232,990 Active 337 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $232,990 Active 336 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $232,990 Active 335 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $232,990 Active 334 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $232,990 Active 333 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $232,990 Active 332 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $232,990 Active 331 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $232,990 Active 330 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $232,990 Active 329 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $232,990 Active 328 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $232,990 Active 327 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $232,990 Active 326 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $232,990 Active 325 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $232,990 Active 324 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $232,990 Active 323 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $232,990 Active 322 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $232,990 Active 320 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $232,990 Active 319 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $232,990 Active 318 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $232,990 Active 317 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $232,990 Active 315 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $232,990 Active 314 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $232,990 Active 313 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $231,990 Active 312 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $231,990 Active 309 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $231,990 Active 308 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $231,990 Active 307 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $231,990 Active 306 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $231,990 Active 304 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $231,990 Active 302 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,250
• − Property taxes: −$4,084
• − Insurance: −$1,361
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − Depreciation: −$7,920
• Taxable loss: −$10,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,434
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a great value for both resale and rental due to its well-maintained appearance and modern features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New countertops in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $250,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Listed $265,990 Zillow