10223 Dawson Hill Ln · Houston, TX 77044

$229,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,634 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2016 4,695 sqft lot $141/sqft · at area comps Est $238k · at est. $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a home that actually feels new without the new-build price? This is it. Welcome to 10223 Dawson Hill Ln—a nicely updated, move-in ready home in Sunrise Pines that checks every box. From the moment you walk in, you’ll love the open layout, fresh finishes, and durable luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main level. The kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring new stainless steel appliances, a large island, and plenty of cabinet space—perfect for hosting or just hanging out after a long day. Upstairs, you’ll find all bedrooms plus a flexible game room that can double as a home office or play space. The primary suite features a relaxing garden tub/shower combo and updated finishes. Out back? A fully fenced yard with room for kids, pets, or weekend BBQs. Conveniently located just minutes from Sheldon Lake Elementary and Beltway 8. If you’ve been searching for a clean, updated home where you don’t have to fix a thing—this is your opportunity.

Key facts

• Flexible game room
• Large island
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND
• FLEXIBLE GAME ROOM
• GARDEN TUB SHOWER COMBO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sheldon Early Childhood Academy (589 students, 87% FRL); Michael R Null Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,164 students, 89% FRL); C E King H S (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,473 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,589 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,988
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -3.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10223 Dawson Hill Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,634 (0%)	0mo	$229,900	$141	98
10114 Orchid Spring Ln	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,655 (+1%)	4mo	$219,990	$133	86
13438 Gardenia Mist Ln	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,669 (+2%)	4mo	$252,000	$151	78
11007 Sunturf Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,612 (-1%)	8mo	$245,999	$153	65
12911 Italian Cypress Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-2%)	9mo	$238,000	$149	60
10307 Leafy Autumn Path	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,595 (-2%)	10mo	$235,000	$147	57
13111 Italian Cypress Trl	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,788 (+9%)	3mo	$255,000	$143	57
13015 Italian Cypress Trl	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,545 (-5%)	7mo	$235,000	$152	55
9734 Vanessa Glen Ct	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,800 (+10%)	1mo	$290,000	$161	49
9742 Raisbeck Pl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+8%)	6mo	$235,000	$133	48
12819 Blue Timbers Ct	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,801 (+10%)	3mo	$229,900	$128	45
13230 Montane Manor Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,876 (+15%)	6mo	$234,500	$125	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-38,452
• Equity at exit: $49,099

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-51,369
• Equity at exit: $46,287

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,149 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$538 /mo · $6,452/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,366

Max offer price $199,589

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-107	+0% $-172	+5% $-237	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-341	-5% $-256	+0% $-172	+5% $-87	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-56	-0.5pp $-113	base $-172	+0.5pp $-231	+1.0pp $-292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10103 Dawson Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2021	$2,249	$1.11	24d	1	0.06mi
10306 White Fir Villa Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,100	$1.35	45d	1	0.42mi
13206 Clifton Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	19d	1	0.61mi
10410 Solitude Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2174	$2,100	$0.97	5d	1	0.66mi
10007 Copper Hollow Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$1,700	$0.96	46d	1	0.68mi
9418 Belleclaire Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,950	$1.37	26d	1	0.93mi
12319 Garden Gale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,766	$1.03	7d	1	1.06mi
12315 Roy Mix Bohn Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	45d	1	1.28mi
12703 Enchanted Path Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,701	$1.19	14d	1	1.37mi
12227 Ghita Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	45d	1	1.39mi
12610 Fern Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,736	$1.45	45d	1	1.41mi
12539 Fern Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,750	$1.47	6d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-03
   price $229,900 1014-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

   Looking for a home that actually feels new without the new-build price? This is it. Welcome to 10223 Dawson Hill Ln—a nicely updated, move-in ready home in Sunrise Pines that checks every box. From the moment you walk in, you’ll love the open layout, fresh finishes, and durable luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main level. The kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring new stainless steel appliances, a large island, and plenty of cabinet space—perfect for hosting or just hanging out after a long day. Upstairs, you’ll find all bedrooms plus a flexible game room that can double as a home office or play space. The primary suite features a relaxing garden tub/shower combo and updated finishes. Out back? A fully fenced yard with room for kids, pets, or weekend BBQs. Conveniently located just minutes from Sheldon Lake Elementary and Beltway 8. If you’ve been searching for a clean, updated home where you don’t have to fix a thing—this is your opportunity.

2. 2026-04-07
   listed $234,900 Active 1014-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

   Looking for a home that actually feels new without the new-build price? This is it. Welcome to 10223 Dawson Hill Ln—a nicely updated, move-in ready home in Sunrise Pines that checks every box. From the moment you walk in, you’ll love the open layout, fresh finishes, and durable luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main level. The kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring new stainless steel appliances, a large island, and plenty of cabinet space—perfect for hosting or just hanging out after a long day. Upstairs, you’ll find all bedrooms plus a flexible game room that can double as a home office or play space. The primary suite features a relaxing garden tub/shower combo and updated finishes. Out back? A fully fenced yard with room for kids, pets, or weekend BBQs. Conveniently located just minutes from Sheldon Lake Elementary and Beltway 8. If you’ve been searching for a clean, updated home where you don’t have to fix a thing—this is your opportunity.

3. 2026-02-12
   soldstatus
4. 2026-01-20
   soldstatus Closed 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   This two-story home features three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. The open concept living room connects to the kitchen, which includes an island breakfast bar. Additional amenities comprise an attached two-car garage, a fully fenced backyard, and an upstairs area offering all bedrooms along with a spacious game room.

5. 2025-12-27
   status Pending 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   This two-story home features three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. The open concept living room connects to the kitchen, which includes an island breakfast bar. Additional amenities comprise an attached two-car garage, a fully fenced backyard, and an upstairs area offering all bedrooms along with a spacious game room.

6. 2025-12-15
   status Pending 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   This two-story home features three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. The open concept living room connects to the kitchen, which includes an island breakfast bar. Additional amenities comprise an attached two-car garage, a fully fenced backyard, and an upstairs area offering all bedrooms along with a spacious game room.

7. 2025-11-21
   price $179,900 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   This two-story home features three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. The open concept living room connects to the kitchen, which includes an island breakfast bar. Additional amenities comprise an attached two-car garage, a fully fenced backyard, and an upstairs area offering all bedrooms along with a spacious game room.

8. 2025-10-15
   price $189,900 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   This two-story home features three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. The open concept living room connects to the kitchen, which includes an island breakfast bar. Additional amenities comprise an attached two-car garage, a fully fenced backyard, and an upstairs area offering all bedrooms along with a spacious game room.

9. 2025-09-12
   price $199,900 326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (326 chars)

   This two-story home features three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. The open concept living room connects to the kitchen, which includes an island breakfast bar. Additional amenities comprise an attached two-car garage, a fully fenced backyard, and an upstairs area offering all bedrooms along with a spacious game room.

10. 2025-08-13
    listed $209,900 Active 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    This two-story home features three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. The open concept living room connects to the kitchen, which includes an island breakfast bar. Additional amenities comprise an attached two-car garage, a fully fenced backyard, and an upstairs area offering all bedrooms along with a spacious game room.

11. 2025-07-16
    historical
12. 2025-06-29
    price $224,999
13. 2025-05-21
    price $249,999
14. 2025-05-20
    price $229,999
15. 2025-05-01
    listed $249,999 Active
16. 2022-07-27
    soldstatus
17. 2022-07-26
    soldstatus Sold
18. 2022-06-04
    status Pending
19. 2022-05-31
    status Option Pending
20. 2022-05-23
    listed $244,900 Active
21. 2018-10-15
    soldstatus
22. 2018-10-10
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2018-09-03
    status Pending
24. 2018-08-23
    status Option Pending
25. 2018-08-14
    listed $160,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,452 · $538/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,452 · $538/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$6,452
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,063
• − Management: −$2,063
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$5,868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,408
• After-tax cash flow: $-651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+43.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $224,999 HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $249,999 HARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $229,999 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $249,999 HARMLS
• 2022-07-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-23 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2018-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-09-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-14 Listed $160,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,452 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.