1038 Capewood Ln · Windsor, CA 95492

$324,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · Manufactured · 90 Days on market

Built 1990 $198/sqft · 53% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Reduced for quick sale! Discover the perfect blend of comfort and elegance in this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath mfg. home which boasts over 1600 sq. ft. of living space! Built in 1990, this newer home is located in Windsor Senior Mobile Country Club located at the back of the Park close to the dog park. When you step inside you will find an open floor plan with a huge light-filled living room. Separate and adjacent to the kitchen is a nice sized dining room with beautiful double doors to the front deck. The kitchen, the heart of the home, is spacious with granite counters, newer cabinets, newer refrigerator, full gas range, microwave, dishwasher, a deep sink. The Mahogany laminate floors are throughout. The first bedroom is near the living room so could easily be used as an office. Another bedroom has a door to the backyard and the third bedroom is the main bedroom with a lovely ensuite. The hall bath is located in the center of the home conveniently located for everyone to use. Near the back door to the carport is the laundry room that has beautiful newer washer/dryers plus a second refrigerator for that extra Costco run! Outside you will find 2 car covered parking, a nice shed, and a backyard with a large, Trex deck and a space for plants. Nestled in the back of the Park, and where there is less traffic and greater privacy, this home has everything you need and More! It is conveniently located to the Windsor Town Greene, Oliver's Market, Safeway, and other wonderful small restaurants and shops to stroll through. This is a beautiful home with a great backyard. Come snatch it up before someone else does!

Key facts

• Newer cabinets
• Spacious kitchen
• Deep sink

Tags

• LIGHT FILLED LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• NEWER CABINETS
• DEEP SINK
• MAHOGANY LAMINATE FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $305k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.1% in Windsor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#210 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Windsor Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #362 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($134k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.52%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,820
• List price: $324,900
• Delta: 53.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1047 Maple Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+2%)	13mo	$173,000	$103	76
8178 Willow St #8178	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+2%)	21mo	$259,000	$154	74
702 Sequoia St	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-7%)	12mo	$170,000	$111	72
8115 Circle Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-6%)	17mo	$220,000	$142	71
1056 Maple Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,750 (+6%)	12mo	$425,000	$243	69
1032 Maple Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-10%)	8mo	$385,000	$259	67
8126 C St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-6%)	22mo	$273,000	$176	66
8317 Blue Spruce Way	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-12%)	7mo	$135,000	$94	64
830 Joshua Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (+8%)	13mo	$349,000	$196	62
1133 Chinaberry Way	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-12%)	12mo	$279,000	$194	60
8330 Blue Spruce Way	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+11%)	17mo	$210,000	$115	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $12,512
• Equity at exit: $48,444

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $94,399
• Equity at exit: $28,091

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95492

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $963/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$783
• Net cashflow: $1,025

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,430

Max offer price $324,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,209	-5% $1,117	+0% $1,025	+5% $933	+10% $841
Rent	-10% $731	-5% $878	+0% $1,025	+5% $1,173	+10% $1,320
Rate	-1.0pp $1,189	-0.5pp $1,108	base $1,025	+0.5pp $941	+1.0pp $855

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7924 Ferrari Way Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1476	$3,400	$2.30	45d	1	0.59mi
185 Johnson St Windsor, CA	3.0	2.5	1796	$3,300	$1.84	45d	1	0.59mi
236 Windsor River Rd Windsor, CA	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,100	$1.61	15d	1	0.64mi
776 McClelland Dr Windsor, CA	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,900	$2.16	45d	1	0.72mi
904 Bond Pl Windsor, CA	3.0	3.0	1587	$1,275	$0.80	45d	1	0.94mi
1145 Shiloh Rd Windsor, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$4,395	$5.66	9d	14	1.01mi
112 Knight Ct Windsor, CA	4.0	2.5	2202	$4,250	$1.93	13d	1	1.19mi
1011 Ventana Dr Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,400	$3.09	45d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $324,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $324,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $324,900 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $324,900 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $324,900 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $324,900 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $324,900 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-04-17
   price $324,900 1633-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1633 chars)

   Reduced for quick sale! Discover the perfect blend of comfort and elegance in this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath mfg. home which boasts over 1600 sq. ft. of living space! Built in 1990, this newer home is located in Windsor Senior Mobile Country Club located at the back of the Park close to the dog park. When you step inside you will find an open floor plan with a huge light-filled living room. Separate and adjacent to the kitchen is a nice sized dining room with beautiful double doors to the front deck. The kitchen, the heart of the home, is spacious with granite counters, newer cabinets, newer refrigerator, full gas range, microwave, dishwasher, a deep sink. The Mahogany laminate floors are throughout. The first bedroom is near the living room so could easily be used as an office. Another bedroom has a door to the backyard and the third bedroom is the main bedroom with a lovely ensuite. The hall bath is located in the center of the home conveniently located for everyone to use. Near the back door to the carport is the laundry room that has beautiful newer washer/dryers plus a second refrigerator for that extra Costco run! Outside you will find 2 car covered parking, a nice shed, and a backyard with a large, Trex deck and a space for plants. Nestled in the back of the Park, and where there is less traffic and greater privacy, this home has everything you need and More! It is conveniently located to the Windsor Town Greene, Oliver's Market, Safeway, and other wonderful small restaurants and shops to stroll through. This is a beautiful home with a great backyard. Come snatch it up before someone else does!

9. 2026-03-09
   listed $328,000 Active 1633-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1633 chars)

   Reduced for quick sale! Discover the perfect blend of comfort and elegance in this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath mfg. home which boasts over 1600 sq. ft. of living space! Built in 1990, this newer home is located in Windsor Senior Mobile Country Club located at the back of the Park close to the dog park. When you step inside you will find an open floor plan with a huge light-filled living room. Separate and adjacent to the kitchen is a nice sized dining room with beautiful double doors to the front deck. The kitchen, the heart of the home, is spacious with granite counters, newer cabinets, newer refrigerator, full gas range, microwave, dishwasher, a deep sink. The Mahogany laminate floors are throughout. The first bedroom is near the living room so could easily be used as an office. Another bedroom has a door to the backyard and the third bedroom is the main bedroom with a lovely ensuite. The hall bath is located in the center of the home conveniently located for everyone to use. Near the back door to the carport is the laundry room that has beautiful newer washer/dryers plus a second refrigerator for that extra Costco run! Outside you will find 2 car covered parking, a nice shed, and a backyard with a large, Trex deck and a space for plants. Nestled in the back of the Park, and where there is less traffic and greater privacy, this home has everything you need and More! It is conveniently located to the Windsor Town Greene, Oliver's Market, Safeway, and other wonderful small restaurants and shops to stroll through. This is a beautiful home with a great backyard. Come snatch it up before someone else does!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,469 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,507/yr (+$126/mo · 156.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$963
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,578
• − Management: −$3,578
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable income: $7,335
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,760
• After-tax cash flow: $10,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Windsor Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600034
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $81,297
• Composite: 25.06/100
• National rank: #7541
• State rank: #362 of 517 in CA

Livability — Windsor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #6671

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Windsor, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 27,429
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 27,429
• Household income: $134,211
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 628.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Native American 4% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 25% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.03%
• Current HPI: 249.6052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $324,900 BAREIS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $328,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $963 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.