Pedernales Plan · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

$399,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 427 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You will also find access to your garage. If you are needing ample storage space, you are in luck! A two-and-a-half-car garage comes standard in this floor plan. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio. ..

Key facts

• Two bathroom
• Open-concept kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FOUR BEDROOM
• TWO BATHROOM
• SECLUDED WORK FROM HOME SPACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH

🏗️ New construction. The $399,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $436,686.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-841 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.9% in Liberty Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bill Burden El (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 808 students, 19% FRL); Liberty Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 944 students, 26% FRL); Liberty Hill H S (math 39% / reading 69%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,001 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 2064 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 427 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $275,590 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 427 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.25%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $436,686
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -8.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 Thoroughbred Trce	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,947 (+8%)	2mo	$749,999	$385	66
304 Leeland Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,801 (+0%)	3mo	$336,745	$187	65
117 Old Woods Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,018 (+12%)	5mo	$414,835	$206	62
508 Lariat Loop	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,903 (+6%)	4mo	$399,922	$210	58
208 High Valley Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,951 (+8%)	4mo	$399,805	$205	52
320 Leeland Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,964 (+9%)	3mo	$359,859	$183	49
732 Lariat Loop	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (+8%)	4mo	$439,900	$226	46
516 Bauer Loop	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,028 (+13%)	5mo	$334,990	$165	46
514 Outrider Ct	0.68mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,910 (+6%)	5mo	$398,900	$209	45
608 Leeland Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,002 (+11%)	5mo	$399,721	$200	43
527 Outrider Ct	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (+8%)	5mo	$399,900	$205	43
216 Foundation Ln	0.72mi	4/3.5	1,978 (+10%)	4mo	$524,900	$265	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-132,340
• Equity at exit: $65,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-215,229
• Equity at exit: $37,757

Cash invested: $122,272 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 80 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,994 ($211/sqft)
• Median days on market: 209 d
• This list price: 49% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 2064
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,756 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,290
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$546 /mo · $6,550/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-841

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,820

Max offer price $315,039

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-539	-5% $-690	+0% $-841	+5% $-992	+10% $-1,142
Rent	-10% $-1,058	-5% $-950	+0% $-841	+5% $-732	+10% $-623
Rate	-1.0pp $-621	-0.5pp $-730	base $-841	+0.5pp $-954	+1.0pp $-1,069

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,172
• Closing costs: $13,101
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
404 Langhorne Bnd Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2392	$3,000	$1.25	3d	1	0.28mi
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	3.0	1745	$2,350	$1.35	145d	1	0.31mi
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1745	$2,350	$1.35	157d	1	0.31mi
105 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2618	$2,800	$1.07	53d	1	0.34mi
125 Clemens Dr Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	3.0	1801	$2,135	$1.19	87d	1	0.39mi
217 McCrae Dr Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2453	$2,900	$1.18	138d	1	0.40mi
537 Bauer Loop Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2243	$2,350	$1.05	7d	1	0.41mi
217 Gary Wayne Dr Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2444	$2,600	$1.06	118d	1	0.68mi
362 Golden Paint Trl Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1997	$2,100	$1.05	0d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $399,990 Active 427 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $399,990 Active 426 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $399,990 Active 425 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $399,990 Active 424 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $399,990 Active 423 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $399,990 Active 421 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $399,990 Active 420 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $399,990 Active 419 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $399,990 Active 418 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $399,990 Active 417 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 416 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $399,990 Active 415 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $399,990 Active 414 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $399,990 Active 413 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $399,990 Active 412 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $399,990 Active 411 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $399,990 Active 410 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $399,990 Active 409 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $399,990 Active 408 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $399,990 Active 407 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $399,990 Active 406 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $399,990 Active 405 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $399,990 Active 404 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $399,990 Active 403 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $399,990 Active 402 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 401 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $399,990 Active 400 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $399,990 Active 399 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $399,990 Active 398 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $399,990 Active 397 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $399,990 Active 396 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $399,990 Active 395 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $399,990 Active 394 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $399,990 Active 393 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $399,990 Active 392 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $399,990 Active 391 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $399,990 Active 390 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $399,990 Active 389 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 388 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $399,990 Active 387 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 386 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $399,990 Active 385 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $399,990 Active 383 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $399,990 Active 382 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $399,990 Active 381 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $399,990 Active 380 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $399,990 Active 379 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $399,990 Active 378 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $399,990 Active 377 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $399,990 Active 376 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,461
• − Property taxes: −$6,550
• − Insurance: −$2,183
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,646
• − Management: −$2,646
• − Depreciation: −$12,704
• Taxable loss: −$18,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,349
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Liberty Hill, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can modernize the kitchen and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make bathrooms more appealing and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can enhance the home's ambiance and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bill Burden El F TX #1,490/4,322 Nat'l #19,191/41,679 Middle Liberty Hill Middle D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Liberty Hill H S C- TX #422/1,632 Nat'l #4,773/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-07 Listed $427,990 Zillow