77 Connelly Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$159,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1925 5,120 sqft lot Est $178k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick exterior - Great room sizes- 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. In need of your TLC. Good investment or live-In. Owner states the property is open to offers. SOLD in "AS IS CONDITION". No repairs will performed by owner as a result of any Inspection.

Key facts

• Versatile layout
• Quality updates
• Newer hot water tank

Tags

• ALL BRICK HOME
• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEWER HOT WATER TANK
• WELL MAINTAINED BOILER SYSTEM
• VERSATILE LAYOUT
• QUALITY UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 239 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $159k implies a 354% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.32%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,369
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
353 Warwick Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,611 (-3%)	1mo	$161,800	$100	81
14 Roosevelt Ave	0.34mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (-2%)	3mo	$185,000	$113	74
141 Millicent Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,620 (-3%)	2mo	$142,000	$88	69
34 Copsewood Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,602 (-4%)	6mo	$170,000	$106	68
303 Weston Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,638 (-2%)	3mo	$205,000	$125	64
597 Norfolk Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,490 (-11%)	4mo	$160,000	$107	59
65 Deerfield Ave	0.66mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,621 (-3%)	6mo	$170,000	$105	53
73 Davidson Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,547 (-7%)	5mo	$175,000	$113	52
127 Durham Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,550 (-7%)	1mo	$216,000	$139	47
84 Elmer Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,510 (-9%)	1mo	$125,000	$83	44
14 Thornton Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,445 (-13%)	4mo	$239,900	$166	41
123 Elmer Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,518 (-9%)	6mo	$140,000	$92	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,267
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $11,602
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $319/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,173

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $473	-5% $428	+0% $383	+5% $156	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $252	-5% $317	+0% $383	+5% $448	+10% $514
Rate	-1.0pp $463	-0.5pp $423	base $383	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	45d	1	0.18mi
25 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1914	$1,350	$0.71	16d	1	0.56mi
189 Westminster Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1065	$1,595	$1.50	12d	1	0.94mi
65 Domedion Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	3d	1	1.16mi
263 Minnesota Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	16d	1	1.21mi
265 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	45d	1	1.27mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,997	$2.93	3d	10	1.31mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	25d	1	1.32mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	45d	1	1.32mi
175 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	16d	1	1.33mi
517 Goodyear Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,800	$1.15	20d	1	1.34mi
85 Highgate Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2193	$3,750	$1.71	16d	1	1.45mi
96 Academy Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2247	$1,400	$0.62	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $159,000 Active
3. 2025-12-27
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-13
   listed $159,900 Active
5. 2014-12-23
   soldstatus $35,000 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Brick exterior - Great room sizes- 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. In need of your TLC. Good investment or live-In. Owner states the property is open to offers. SOLD in "AS IS CONDITION". No repairs will performed by owner as a result of any Inspection.

6. 2014-12-23
   soldstatus $35,000

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Brick exterior - Great room sizes- 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. In need of your TLC. Good investment or live-In. Owner states the property is open to offers. SOLD in "AS IS CONDITION". No repairs will performed by owner as a result of any Inspection.

7. 2014-09-12
   listed $36,900 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Brick exterior - Great room sizes- 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. In need of your TLC. Good investment or live-In. Owner states the property is open to offers. SOLD in "AS IS CONDITION". No repairs will performed by owner as a result of any Inspection.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $319 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,503 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,184/yr (+$99/mo · 370.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$319
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $2,061
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$495
• After-tax cash flow: $4,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+330.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $159,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2014-12-23 Sold (MLS) $35,000 WNYREIS
• 2014-09-12 Listed $36,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $319 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.