95 Sheila Ln · Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

$49,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 450 sqft · Manufactured · 247 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1957 Poor condition 7,944 sqft lot $110/sqft · 48% below area Est $95k · 48% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.1

Listing remarks MLS

Two 1 Bed 1 Bath manufactured homes on one lot in the City of Sierra Vista. Homes need work but has newer main sewer line installed. All utilities are available. Owner May Carry. Sold AS IS.

Key facts

• 7,944 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1957

Tags

• NEWER MAIN SEWER LINE
• ALL UTILITIES AVAILABLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($695 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.3% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Town & Country Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #600 of 1,109 statewide, top 56%, 433 students, 48% FRL); Joyce Clark Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #70 of 218 statewide, top 32%, 670 students, 46% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 289 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.89%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,000
• List price: $49,500
• Delta: -47.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
230 N 1st St	0.91mi	2/1.0 (+1)	400 (-11%)	1mo	$95,000	$238	41
3300 E Fry Blvd #71	2.09mi	1/1.0	516 (+15%)	37mo	$5,000	$10	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $3,115
• Equity at exit: $7,381

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $11,835
• Equity at exit: $4,280

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 0.0 mo

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85635

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $742/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$146
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $433

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $224	+0% $207	+5% $190	+10% $172
Rent	-10% $152	-5% $179	+0% $207	+5% $234	+10% $262
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $219	base $207	+0.5pp $194	+1.0pp $181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
555 N 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	521	$792	$1.52	1d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $49,500 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $49,500 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $49,500 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $49,500 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $49,500 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $49,500 Active 242 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $49,500 Active 241 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $49,500 Active 240 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $49,500 Active 239 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $49,500 Active 238 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $49,500 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $49,500 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $49,500 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $49,500 Active 229 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $49,500 Active 228 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $49,500 Active 227 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $49,500 Active 226 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $49,500 Active 223 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $49,500 Active 222 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $49,500 Active 221 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $49,500 Active 220 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $49,500 Active 219 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $49,500 Active 218 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $49,500 Active 217 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $49,500 Active 216 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $49,500 Active 215 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $49,500 Active 214 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $49,500 Active 213 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $49,500 Active 212 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $49,500 Active 211 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $49,500 Active 210 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $49,500 Active 209 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $49,500 Active 208 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $49,500 Active 207 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $49,500 Active 206 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $49,500 Active 205 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $49,500 Active 204 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $49,500 Active 203 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $49,500 Active 202 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $49,500 Active 201 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $49,500 Active 200 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $49,500 Active 199 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $49,500 Active 198 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $49,500 Active 197 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $49,500 Active 196 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $49,500 Active 193 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $49,500 Active 192 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $49,500 Active 191 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $49,500 Active 189 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $49,500 Active 187 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$742
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$667
• − Management: −$667
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $1,799
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$432
• After-tax cash flow: $2,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $22,500–$40,500 screening

This property requires extensive renovations to bring it up to a livable condition. Immediate repairs and updates are needed to improve its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — Severe wear and tear
• Major kitchen countertops — Severe wear and tear
• Major bathroom fixtures — Severe wear and tear
• Major bathroom flooring — Severe wear and tear
• Major exterior siding — Severe wear and tear
• Major exterior foundation — Severe wear and tear
• Major interior walls — Severe wear and tear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — Modern kitchen will attract buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom renovation — Modern bathroom will attract buyers ↑
• Resale Exterior siding and foundation repair — Improved curb appeal will attract buyers ↑
• Resale Interior wall repair and painting — Improved interior will attract buyers ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — Improved HVAC will attract buyers and renters ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improved landscaping will attract buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Town & Country Elementary School F AZ #600/1,109 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Joyce Clark Middle School F AZ #70/218 Nat'l #8,188/14,009 High Buena High School F AZ #202/381 Nat'l #13,437/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 113,402 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,193
• Household income: $61,580
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.93%
• Current HPI: 175.5821
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-17.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $62,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $69,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $75,000 ARMLS