121 Private Road 8382 · Evadale, TX 77615

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Fair condition 0.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location in Evadale, TX for this 2 bedroom , 1 bath home. With good proximity to FM 105 and Hwy 96, this is great for a commuter to Orange, Beaumont or Port Arthur. The property has plenty of area under the home for storage and boasts a nice porch overlooking the yard. Less than 5 minutes to Evadale schools.

Key facts

• Nice porch
• Overlooking the yard
• Great location

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• GOOD PROXIMITY
• NICE PORCH
• OVERLOOKING THE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-975/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $78k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $78k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#205 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Evadale ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #609 of 1,141 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,239 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.09%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,440
• Equity at exit: $32,814

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $11,808
• Equity at exit: $45,270

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77615

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $946

Max offer price $78,239

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 315-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   days on marketlisting id $90,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $90,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $90,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $90,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $90,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-05-05
   listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$1,952
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$809
• − Management: −$809
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$2,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$592
• After-tax cash flow: $-384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on the kitchen and exterior. Simple updates like painting and cleaning can significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exposed ductwork in kitchen — Aesthetic and possibly functional issue
• Minor Cluttered countertops in kitchen — Reduces functionality and appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace exposed ductwork — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Clean and organize countertops — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed ductwork in kitchen · Aesthetic and possibly functional issue	Minor	$500–3,000
Cluttered countertops in kitchen · Reduces functionality and appeal	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace exposed ductwork — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Clean and organize countertops — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evadale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818750
• Math proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,985
• Composite: 39.05/100
• National rank: #8273
• State rank: #609 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Evadale

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #5091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Evadale, TX
• City population: 256
• Population (ZIP): 256

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 81.228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $90,000 BBOR