20683 Waalew Rd Unit B201 · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$63,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Built 1978 Fair condition Est $59k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great location in the desirable Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park! Situated on a spacious corner lot, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 800 square feet of comfortable living space surrounded by mature landscaping that enhances its curb appeal and creates a welcoming atmosphere. The functional floor plan features a bright living area, a well-appointed kitchen, and a private primary suite with its own bathroom. Outside, you'll find plenty of space and convenience with a fenced dog run, storage shed, and exceptional parking accommodations. The covered 3-car carport, additional driveway parking for 2 vehicles, and available street parking provide ample room for residents and

Key facts

• Fenced dog run
• Spacious corner lot
• Storage shed

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• FENCED DOG RUN
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED FRONT PATIO
• ABUNDANT PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Rent includes: see remarks; Living area source: assessor's data
• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $1,017 (park-reported)
• HOA & community: Community amenities include pool, clubhouse and spa; Manager approval required for park residency

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Located in Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Mobile home (10 ft x 40 ft) — mobile home remains; FM Homes Inc model; Single-story
• Construction: Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Awning; Community pool; Park nearby; Close to clubhouse; Located on a walkstreet; Has a view

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Wall/window and evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One-level home with front entry; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $63k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $839 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $63k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.3% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Vanguard Preparatory (1,135 students, 69% FRL); Granite Hills High (1,759 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 537 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $436 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,055 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.06%
• DSCR: 3.54
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,200
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20683 Waalew Unit B-84	0.00mi	2/2.0	800 (0%)	2mo	$59,000	$74	98
20683 Waalew #59	0.17mi	2/2.0	821 (+3%)	2mo	$55,000	$67	86
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B50	0.00mi	2/2.0	804 (+0%)	23mo	$66,000	$82	80
20683 Waalew Sp #74	0.09mi	2/1.0	784 (-2%)	10mo	$55,000	$70	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $47,358
• Equity at exit: $9,394

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.25×
• Total profit: $127,928
• Equity at exit: $5,447

Cash invested: $17,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 537
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,613 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$79 /mo · $945/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $839

Break-even live

Break-even rent $551

Max offer price $63,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $882	-5% $860	+0% $839	+5% $817	+10% $795
Rent	-10% $711	-5% $775	+0% $839	+5% $902	+10% $966
Rate	-1.0pp $870	-0.5pp $855	base $839	+0.5pp $822	+1.0pp $806

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,750
• Closing costs: $1,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21225 Wigwam Rd Unit 2 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	934	$1,200	$1.28	45d	1	1.02mi
15866 Sago Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	996	$1,750	$1.76	26d	1	1.12mi
15728 Sago Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	26d	1	1.26mi
20316 Rimrock Rd E Unit 3 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,450	$1.78	45d	1	1.40mi
20130 Rimrock Rd E Apt B Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	22d	1	1.44mi
20236 Pawhuska Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$1,400	$1.61	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $63,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $63,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $63,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $63,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $63,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $63,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $63,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $63,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $63,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $63,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,529
• − Property taxes: −$945
• − Insurance: −$315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,548
• − Management: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$1,833
• Taxable income: $9,635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,312
• After-tax cash flow: $7,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home in a desirable location requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, and interior walls, which can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are dated and could benefit from an update.
• Moderate Bathroom fixtures — The fixtures are functional but could be replaced for a more modern look.
• Moderate Exterior siding — The siding shows some discoloration and wear, which could be addressed.
• Moderate Interior walls — The wood paneling and paint are dated and could be updated.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — Updating the kitchen with modern appliances and cabinetry can significantly increase the home's appeal and value.
• Resale Bathroom updates — Replacing outdated fixtures and adding modern elements can enhance the home's appeal and value.
• Resale Exterior siding and paint — Updating the exterior can improve the home's curb appeal and overall appearance, increasing its resale value.
• Resale Interior wall updates — Updating the interior walls with fresh paint and modern decor can enhance the home's appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · The cabinets are dated and could benefit from an update.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom fixtures · The fixtures are functional but could be replaced for a more modern look.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior siding · The siding shows some discoloration and wear, which could be addressed.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior walls · The wood paneling and paint are dated and could be updated.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$12,000–60,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — Updating the kitchen with modern appliances and cabinetry can significantly increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Replacing outdated fixtures and adding modern elements can enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Exterior siding and paint — Updating the exterior can improve the home's curb appeal and overall appearance, increasing its resale value. ↑
• Resale Interior wall updates — Updating the interior walls with fresh paint and modern decor can enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $63,000 CRMLS