650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #106 · San Marcos, CA 92078

$230,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1972 $160/sqft · 20% below area Est $290k · 20% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location, and the views! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath Double wide home is located in a desirable 55+ rent-controlled community, ideally situated just steps from the tennis courts and clubhouse. The outside and inside of the home has been newly painted. New vinyl flooring has been put in the bathroom. Inside, the home has a spacious separate living room with brand-new carpet, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere. Home is priced to sell! Palomar Estates East is an active and highly social 55+ community offering an impressive array of amenities—be sure to review the photos to see all that the park has to offer. The location is exceptionally convenient, close to shopping, dining, entertainment, and outdoor recreation. Enjoy nearby Lake San Marcos, multiple golf courses, the San Marcos Senior Center, and an abundance of parks and walking trails. Plus, you’re just a short 8-mile drive to the beaches of Carlsbad. An excellent opportunity to enjoy comfortable living in a vibrant North County community.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1972
• Listed 113 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $210k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 2.5% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in CA, #3,074 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 232 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $65k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,755 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.44%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,789
• List price: $230,500
• Delta: -20.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #312	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$267,000	$199	88
650 S Rancho Santa Fe. Rd #294	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$228,500	$170	87
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #374	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$385,000	$267	82
3535 Linda Vista Dr Spc 29	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$174	81
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #191	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	1mo	$310,000	$208	76
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #54	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$260,000	$208	76
3535 Linda Vista Dr #50	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	1mo	$358,000	$262	73
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #437	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+6%)	2mo	$475,000	$310	66
3535 Linda Vista Dr #321	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$275,000	$205	65
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #425	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$320,000	$238	65
3535 Linda Vista Dr #255	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,624 (+13%)	2mo	$285,000	$175	59
2010 W San Marcos Blvd #54	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$684,999	$510	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $23,852
• Equity at exit: $34,368

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $76,672
• Equity at exit: $19,929

Cash invested: $64,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92078

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,408 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,458/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $1,099

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,016

Max offer price $230,500

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,625
• Closing costs: $6,915
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
830 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	826	$3,150	$3.81	2d	5	0.27mi
3919 Las Cruces Ave San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	4d	1	0.33mi
1643 Rue de Valle San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.5	1086	$3,222	$2.97	17d	1	0.38mi
910 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd Unit 1 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,900	$3.05	24d	1	0.38mi
2010 W San Marcos Blvd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,000	$3.11	43d	1	0.42mi
603 Beverly Pl San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.5	1068	$3,150	$2.95	43d	1	0.42mi
3815 La Rosa Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	1.0	1014	$3,700	$3.65	12d	1	0.56mi
658 Las Flores Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	1.0	1284	$3,650	$2.84	43d	1	0.58mi
3834 La Rosa Dr Unit A San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	1014	$4,200	$4.14	43d	1	0.59mi
1029 Martina Ct San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,995	$2.50	43d	1	0.65mi
1560 Circa Del Lago Unit D302 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1030	$4,500	$4.37	43d	1	0.77mi
1560 Circa Del Lago Unit D304 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1030	$4,500	$4.37	24d	1	0.77mi
1241 W San Marcos Blvd San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	883	$2,400	$2.72	43d	1	0.86mi
1635 Creek St San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0	1047	$3,450	$3.29	14d	3	0.90mi
1510 Calle Devanar San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1222	$3,595	$2.94	4d	1	1.16mi
1604 Via Inspirar San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1222	$3,850	$3.15	43d	1	1.17mi
420 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	896	$2,445	$2.73	2d	3	1.40mi
1257 Armorlite Dr San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	1189	$4,330	$3.64	1d	24	1.41mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,500 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,500 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,500 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $230,500 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $230,500 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $230,500 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $230,500 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $230,500 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-04-13
   price $230,500 1032-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

   Location, Location, and the views! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath Double wide home is located in a desirable 55+ rent-controlled community, ideally situated just steps from the tennis courts and clubhouse. The outside and inside of the home has been newly painted. New vinyl flooring has been put in the bathroom. Inside, the home has a spacious separate living room with brand-new carpet, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere. Home is priced to sell! Palomar Estates East is an active and highly social 55+ community offering an impressive array of amenities—be sure to review the photos to see all that the park has to offer. The location is exceptionally convenient, close to shopping, dining, entertainment, and outdoor recreation. Enjoy nearby Lake San Marcos, multiple golf courses, the San Marcos Senior Center, and an abundance of parks and walking trails. Plus, you’re just a short 8-mile drive to the beaches of Carlsbad. An excellent opportunity to enjoy comfortable living in a vibrant North County community.

10. 2026-02-16
    listed $255,500 Active 1032-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

    Location, Location, and the views! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath Double wide home is located in a desirable 55+ rent-controlled community, ideally situated just steps from the tennis courts and clubhouse. The outside and inside of the home has been newly painted. New vinyl flooring has been put in the bathroom. Inside, the home has a spacious separate living room with brand-new carpet, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere. Home is priced to sell! Palomar Estates East is an active and highly social 55+ community offering an impressive array of amenities—be sure to review the photos to see all that the park has to offer. The location is exceptionally convenient, close to shopping, dining, entertainment, and outdoor recreation. Enjoy nearby Lake San Marcos, multiple golf courses, the San Marcos Senior Center, and an abundance of parks and walking trails. Plus, you’re just a short 8-mile drive to the beaches of Carlsbad. An excellent opportunity to enjoy comfortable living in a vibrant North County community.

11. 2026-02-11
    historical $255,500 1032-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

    Location, Location, and the views! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath Double wide home is located in a desirable 55+ rent-controlled community, ideally situated just steps from the tennis courts and clubhouse. The outside and inside of the home has been newly painted. New vinyl flooring has been put in the bathroom. Inside, the home has a spacious separate living room with brand-new carpet, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere. Home is priced to sell! Palomar Estates East is an active and highly social 55+ community offering an impressive array of amenities—be sure to review the photos to see all that the park has to offer. The location is exceptionally convenient, close to shopping, dining, entertainment, and outdoor recreation. Enjoy nearby Lake San Marcos, multiple golf courses, the San Marcos Senior Center, and an abundance of parks and walking trails. Plus, you’re just a short 8-mile drive to the beaches of Carlsbad. An excellent opportunity to enjoy comfortable living in a vibrant North County community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,912
• − Property taxes: −$3,458
• − Insurance: −$1,152
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,271
• − Management: −$3,271
• − Depreciation: −$6,705
• Taxable income: $10,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,429
• After-tax cash flow: $10,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634880
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,752
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #3093
• State rank: #249 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #3074

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 100,940
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 53,605
• Household income: $120,268
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1594.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -351.55%
• Current HPI: 358.3294
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $230,500 CRMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $255,500 CRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Coming Soon $255,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2013): $264 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.