509 3rd St SE · Willmar, MN 56201

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 778 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1890 7,535 sqft lot $161/sqft · 28% above area Est $146k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step inside this well-loved and cared for 3 bedroom, 2 bath home full of classic 1890 character and charm. From the welcoming front yard with established hostas to the garden shed tucked in the backyard, this property offers warmth, history, and plenty of potential. Inside, you’ll find a main floor bedroom, cozy kitchen, formal dining area, and inviting living spaces that reflect the craftsmanship and personality of the era. Enjoy the beautiful backyard from the rear deck, with newer sidewalks adding convenience around the home. Previously used as a duplex a few decades ago, the home may offer future flexibility for a buyer interested in exploring that possibility again, subject to lo

Key facts

• 7,535 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1890

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area and listed living area details available; Other on-site structures present

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking; 1-car garage (approx. 20 x 12)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Electric service with circuit breakers; Electric fuel
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Main entry on main level
• Construction: Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Foundation includes brick/mortar, stone and other materials; Foundation dimensions approximately 40 x 20
• Exterior features: Front porch, enclosed porch, screened porch, and deck; Tree coverage - medium; City street with curbs, paved streets, sidewalks, street lights and storm sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one on the main floor; two on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bath; Upper level 3/4 bath
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Radiant heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen window; Main floor primary bedroom; Eat-in kitchen and separate/formal dining room; Main floor bedroom; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Laundry sink; Water softener owned; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Willmar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#233 in MN, #4,984 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Willmar Public School District (town): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #246 of 301 in MN (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 159 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Kandiyohi County in 2024 (118 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $125k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,755 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,301
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -14.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-11,444
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,350
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56201

• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,294/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $174	+0% $139	+5% $103	+10% $68
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $91	+0% $139	+5% $186	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $170	base $139	+0.5pp $106	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1100 Elizabeth Ave Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	45d	1	0.54mi
1116 2nd St SE Unit 7 Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,099	$1.16	45d	1	0.59mi
405 15th Ave SW Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	669	$1,115	$1.67	45d	1	0.96mi
405 12th St NW Unit 2 Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	620	$950	$1.53	45d	1	1.06mi
1003 16th St NE Unit 3 Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	875	$1,075	$1.23	45d	1	1.29mi
301 23rd St SE Unit Lower Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,199	$1.50	45d	1	1.32mi
305 23rd St SE Unit Lower Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,199	$1.50	45d	1	1.32mi
301 24th Ave SE Apt 207 Willmar, MN	2.0	2.0	970	$1,395	$1.44	45d	1	1.36mi
201 24th Ave SE Unit 102 Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	957	$1,425	$1.49	45d	1	1.40mi
201 24th Ave SE Unit 305 Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	957	$1,345	$1.41	45d	1	1.40mi
201 24th Ave SE Apt 211 Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	957	$1,295	$1.35	45d	1	1.40mi
1020 Lakeland Dr NE Unit 218 Willmar, MN	2.0	2.0	971	$1,595	$1.64	45d	1	1.41mi
1020 Lakeland Dr NE Unit 210 Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	924	$1,495	$1.62	45d	1	1.41mi
503 24th Ave SE Unit 308 Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	957	$1,425	$1.49	45d	1	1.44mi
2420 4th Ave SE Unit 1 Willmar, MN	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $125,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
19. 2026-05-07
    listed $137,500 Active 937-char remark
20. 2018-04-11
    soldstatus $56,764

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,294 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,347 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$53/yr (+$4/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,294
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$385
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$92
• After-tax cash flow: $1,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willmar Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2742720
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,727
• Composite: 30.85/100
• National rank: #6128
• State rank: #246 of 301 in MN

Livability — Willmar

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #4984

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willmar, MN
• City population: 24,860
• Population (ZIP): 24,860

Population outlook (Kandiyohi County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,956 people
• By 2030: 42,825 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 42,343 · -1.4%
• By 2050: 42,124 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 43,726 · +1.8%
• By 2100: 45,974 · +7.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Iranian 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kandiyohi

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.0) · D 33.7% · R 64.7% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -31.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.0 2020: R+25.7 2016: R+25.5 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.48%
• Current HPI: 161.1663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+120.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $137,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $56,764 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,294 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.