221 Plan · Oak Point, TX 75068

$107,758

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,133 sqft · Manufactured · 377 Days on market

Good condition $95/sqft · 20% below area Est $135k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in Estancia Toro Perezoso, a community where luxury meets nature, this 1133 square-foot model 221 home is a testament to modern living and environmental consciousness.

Key facts

• Listed 376 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 3.4% in Oak Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#887 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $746 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 377 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,827 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 377 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.41%
• DSCR: 2.80
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,033
• List price: $107,758
• Delta: -20.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $40,746
• Equity at exit: $16,067

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $93,695
• Equity at exit: $9,317

Cash invested: $30,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1306
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$565
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$135 /mo · $1,616/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $1,016

Break-even live

Break-even rent $943

Max offer price $107,758

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,940
• Closing costs: $3,233
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8924 Whirlwind Trl Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,995	$1.39	17d	1	0.19mi
8905 Deadwood Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,290	$1.63	15d	1	0.21mi
8821 Tumbleweed Dr Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,950	$1.42	18d	1	0.60mi
832 Cheyenne Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,300	$1.62	24d	1	0.62mi
8621 Chisholm Trl Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,795	$1.31	43d	1	0.67mi
8929 Holliday Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,895	$1.58	2d	1	0.70mi
9016 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,795	$1.40	7d	1	0.77mi
571 Lloyd's Rd Little Elm, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1751	$2,719	$1.55	1d	32	0.79mi
9005 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$2,300	$1.91	16d	1	0.80mi
9004 Eastwood Ave Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,750	$1.45	12d	1	0.83mi
8801 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,850	$1.53	18d	1	0.85mi
608 Crazy Horse Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$2,155	$1.62	43d	1	0.90mi
8923 Redford Rd Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,945	$1.62	43d	1	0.97mi
4480 FM 720 Aubrey, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$2,319	$2.29	12d	24	1.28mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $107,758 Active 377 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $107,758 Active 376 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $107,758 Active 375 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $107,758 Active 374 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $107,758 Active 372 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $107,758 Active 368 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $107,758 Active 367 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $107,758 Active 366 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $107,758 Active 363 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $107,758 Active 362 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $107,758 Active 361 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $107,758 Active 360 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,758 Active 359 DOM
14. 2025-06-06
    listed $107,758 Active 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Nestled in Estancia Toro Perezoso, a community where luxury meets nature, this 1133 square-foot model 221 home is a testament to modern living and environmental consciousness.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,616
• − Insurance: −$539
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − Depreciation: −$3,135
• Taxable income: $11,139
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,673
• After-tax cash flow: $9,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 1133 sq ft model 221 manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Point

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #15941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-06 Listed $107,758 Zillow