3004 Cane Ridge Rd · North Middletown, KY 40361

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 889 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Fair condition 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 065-60-02-010.00

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block and stone foundation; Built area approximately 889
• Exterior features: Barn(s); Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Range; Refrigerator; No fireplace; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($422/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#409 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bourbon County (town): math 26% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #108 of 165 in KY (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cane Ridge Elementary School (math 25% / reading 26%, grade F, #477 of 676 statewide, top 71%, 464 students, 56% FRL); Bourbon County Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 593 students, 63% FRL); Bourbon County High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 790 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Bourbon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $109,427 (8.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-17,188
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-12,015
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40361

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,050
• − Management: −$1,050
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$380
• After-tax cash flow: $802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations to improve its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major flooring — Worn-out carpet
• Major interior walls/paint — Worn paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and increases appeal
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space and increases appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn-out carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Worn paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bourbon County
• NCES district ID: 2100540
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $47,654
• Composite: 25.13/100
• National rank: #7523
• State rank: #108 of 165 in KY

Livability — North Middletown

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #19598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bourbon County · 18,361 people
• City population: 94
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 18,361
• Household income: $63,333
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 509.0

Population outlook (Bourbon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,485 people
• By 2030: 20,559 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 20,491 · +0.0%
• By 2050: 20,065 · -2.1%
• By 2075: 19,173 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 16,646 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bourbon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.4% · R 65.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.2pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.0 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+17.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.90%
• Current HPI: 241.9393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $120,000 ImagineMLS