363 E 38th St · Erie, PA 16504

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 912 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1952 5,227 sqft lot Est $116k · 34% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

WELCONE TO THIS DELIGHTFUL 2 BEDROOM HOME THAT OFFERS BOTH COMFORT AND VERSATILITY. NESTLED IN A PRIME LOCATION, THIS HOME WOULD WORK AS A SINGLE FAMILY HOME. MULTIGENERATIONAL LIVING, OR SAVVY INVESTORS. THE MAIN LIVING AREA FEATURES 2 SPACIOUS BEDROOMS, AND A LARGE LIVING ROOM. THE SEPARATE IN-LAW SUITE ABOVE THE MAIN HOME OFFERS A PRIVATE RETREAT. COMPLETE WITH ITS OWN BEDROOM, BATHROOM, AND KITCHEN, IT'S PERFECT FOR EXTENDED FAMILY MEMBERS OR VISITORS.

Key facts

• Very well maintained
• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1952

Tags

• TWO UNIT INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• VERY WELL MAINTAINED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Actual rents: one unit at $1,125 and one unit at $900

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Multi-family residential income property; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Paved road access; R-1 zoning

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Bathrooms: Two 1-bath units
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Forced air heating; No cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $123/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.80%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,824
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
819 E 37th St	0.58mi	2/— (-1)	986 (+8%)	22mo	$125,000	$127	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,387
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $12,262
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,081/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,436

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 81%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$1,748
Total (2 units)			$1,747

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
626 E 23rd St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	850	$800	$0.94	44d	1	1.03mi
132 W 23rd St Unit 218 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	670	$975	$1.46	44d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 104-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $155,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,081 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,081 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$3,081
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,677
• − Management: −$1,677
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$135
• After-tax cash flow: $2,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+933.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $155,000 GEBOR
• 2026-06-05 Listed $155,000 GEBOR
• 2024-11-10 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2024-11-10 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2024-11-06 Pending — GEBOR
• 2024-11-06 Pending — GEBOR
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $155,000 GEBOR
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $155,000 GEBOR
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed $160,000 GEBOR
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed $160,000 GEBOR
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $170,000 GEBOR
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $170,000 GEBOR
• 2024-06-29 Price Changed $180,000 GEBOR
• 2024-06-29 Price Changed $180,000 GEBOR
• 2024-06-04 Listed $195,000 GEBOR
• 2024-05-24 Listed $195,000 GEBOR
• 2021-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-20 Sold (MLS) $122,000 GEBOR
• 2021-05-08 Listed $119,900 GEBOR
• 1992-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1975-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,081 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.