173 Akins Ranch Road Rd NE · Ludowici, GA 31316

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,061 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 2022 0.54 ac lot $158/sqft · 7% below area Est $351k · 7% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-616 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.4% in Ludowici — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 409 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $199,979 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.12%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,825
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -7.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Serene Ct NE	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,926 (-7%)	5mo	$318,000	$165	68
511 Akins Ranch Rd NE	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,926 (-7%)	12mo	$315,000	$164	58
276 Palmer Place Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,321 (+13%)	12mo	$380,000	$164	53
200 Palmer Place Ln NE	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,321 (+13%)	12mo	$348,000	$150	51
21 Halcyon Way NE	0.41mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,820 (-12%)	1mo	$330,000	$181	51
106 Castaway Ct NE	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,272 (+10%)	3mo	$308,000	$136	50
975 Palmer Rd NE	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,175 (+6%)	11mo	$305,900	$141	50
28 Red Rock Ct NE	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,244 (+9%)	14mo	$335,000	$149	45
114 Palmetto Way NE	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,166 (+5%)	8mo	$299,900	$138	43
939 Palmer Rd NE	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,786 (-13%)	12mo	$282,900	$158	43
81 Palmetto Way NE	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,783 (-14%)	11mo	$289,880	$163	30
779 Palmer Rd NE	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,772 (-14%)	16mo	$284,500	$161	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-30,602
• Equity at exit: $113,639

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-12,972
• Equity at exit: $153,117

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 409
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$311 /mo · $3,728/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,779

Max offer price $216,256

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-432	-5% $-524	+0% $-616	+5% $-708	+10% $-800
Rent	-10% $-774	-5% $-695	+0% $-616	+5% $-537	+10% $-458
Rate	-1.0pp $-452	-0.5pp $-533	base $-616	+0.5pp $-700	+1.0pp $-785

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
224 Enclave Way NE Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.5	2286	$2,175	$0.95	44d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $325,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $325,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $325,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $325,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $325,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $325,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-01-30
   price $325,000
8. 2026-01-07
   listed $335,000 Active
9. 2025-07-25
   price $335,000
10. 2025-07-05
    price $345,000
11. 2024-02-26
    historical
12. 2023-07-24
    listed $348,000 New
13. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus $322,790
14. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus $322,790
15. 2021-09-23
    listed $323,570
16. 2021-09-22
    listed $323,570
17. 2021-09-22
    listed $323,570

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,728 · $311/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,728 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$3,728
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$13,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,215
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $325,000 HABR
• 2026-01-07 Listed $335,000 HABR
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $335,000 HABR
• 2025-07-05 Price Changed $345,000 HABR
• 2024-02-26 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2023-07-24 Listed $348,000 GAMLS
• 2022-04-26 Sold (MLS) $322,790 Hive MLS
• 2022-04-26 Sold (MLS) $322,790 HABR
• 2021-09-23 Listed $323,570 HABR
• 2021-09-22 Listed $323,570 Hive MLS
• 2021-09-22 Listed $323,570 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,728 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.