2809 Gainesville St SE · Washington, DC 20020

$1,000,000

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,600 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1945 4,653 sqft lot Est $954k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Licensed Apartments (4) and Rooming House (4) totaling * 8 units * , w/ w carpet in all units, a/c (window units) and ceiling fans, ceramic tile in kitchen in baths, light filled w lots of windows, baseboard heating, gas cooking, recent upgraded hallway carpet and painted rear and front of property, SECURITY CAMERAS high definition w 1tb storage, entire property fenced, well-lit at night with 'time-controlled feature', 2 parking spaces in rear and lots of street parking, apartments self-contained pay gas and electric, ROOMING HOUSE includes all utilities PLUS high-speed internet, basic cable TV w separate refrigerators , ceiling fans and a/c window units all four rooms, separate access to

Key facts

• Well lit at night
• 4,653 sq ft lot
• Built 1945

Tags

• ENTIRE PROPERTY FENCED
• WELL LIT AT NIGHT
• ONE BLOCK FROM POLICE STATION
• THREE METRO RAIL STOPS
• SHORT WALK TO SHOPPING CENTER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; Other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable TV available; Electric hot water
• Home design: Multifamily property with 4 total units; Built-up roof; Double-hung windows
• Construction: Brick and aluminum siding exterior; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas range; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Four single-room units; Two two-bedroom units; Two three-bedroom units
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Electric heating fuel; Ceiling fans; Wall cooling units; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Combination dining and living area; Additional unspecified interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($36k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $1.00M).
• Recommended offer: $940k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 296 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $11,567/mo this rent would consume 257% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 5148% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $280k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($940k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $1.00M implies a 1624% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $940,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.88%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $954,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2905 30th St SE	0.19mi	8/8.0	3,128 (-13%)	12mo	$830,000	$265	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $39,190
• Equity at exit: $149,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $321,557
• Equity at exit: $86,462

Cash invested: $280,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State District of Columbia: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Washington: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43

Rent Stabilization Program; TOPA gives tenants right of first refusal.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20020

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 57.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,244
• Tax from tax record: −$471 /mo · $5,656/yr
• Insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,429
• Net cashflow: $3,006

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,762

Max offer price $1,000,000

Occupancy floor 69%

8-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 8× units	1	1	$11,568
Total (8 units)			$11,567

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $250,000
• Closing costs: $30,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2211 32nd Pl SE Washington, DC	7.0	3.0	2569	$8,300	$3.23	24d	1	0.68mi
2530 Elvans Rd SE Washington, DC	7.0	3.5	2760	$8,500	$3.08	2d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $1,000,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,100,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,100,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,100,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,100,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    listed $1,100,000 Active
15. 1985-10-22
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DC · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,656 · $471/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,878 · $490/mo
• Expected delta: +$222/yr (+$19/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $138,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$56,016
• − Property taxes: −$5,656
• − Insurance: −$5,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,104
• − Management: −$11,104
• − Depreciation: −$29,091
• Taxable income: $20,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,000
• After-tax cash flow: $31,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: District Of Columbia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1100030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,671
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9606
• State rank: #8 of 32 in DC

Livability — Washington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #5327

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, DC
• County: District of Columbia · 671,873 people
• City population: 671,873
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 53,005
• Household income: $54,032
• Rent vs Own: 69.8% rent · 30.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5148.0

Population outlook (District of Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 821,926 people
• By 2030: 899,517 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 1,061,162 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 1,231,493 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 1,603,312 · +95.1%
• By 2100: 1,847,141 · +124.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% White 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · District of Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+86.1) · D 91.2% · R 5.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 85.9pp · 2024: 86.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+86.1 2020: D+86.8 2016: D+88.7 2012: D+84.2 2008: D+85.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -415.44%
• Current HPI: 306.5068
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.86%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in DC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$153B
▸Life Sciences / Industrials	1	$25B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$8B

Price history

+1796.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $1,100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1985-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,656 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.