2923 Rising Sun Rd · Houston, TX 77449

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1995 4,051 sqft lot $157/sqft · 6% below area Est $255k · 6% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME TO THIS CHARMING AND WELL-MAINTAINED HOME, OFFERS A SPACIOUS OPEN LAYOUT WITH TILE FLOORING TRHROUGHOUT THE MAIN LIVING AREAS, THE KITCHEN FEATURES AMPLE CABINET SPACE, LIGHT WOOD CABINETRY, ENJOY A BRIGHT AND COMFORTABLE LIVING ROOM WITH COZY FIREPLACE, PERFECT FOR RELAXING EVENINGS. THE HOME ALSO OFFERS A GENEROUSLY SIZED DINING SPACE. CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR SHOPPING, DINNING, IDEAL FOR FIRS-TIME BUYERS. AC UNIT WAS REPLACED ON 2024. COME AND TAKE A LOOK.

Key facts

• Light wood cabinetry
• Open layout
• Tile flooring

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• TILE FLOORING
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• LIGHT WOOD CABINETRY
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GENEROUSLY SIZED DINING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,069 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,267
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -6.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20115 Golden Mesa Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-2%)	2mo	$225,000	$151	86
20111 Sunchase Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-0%)	2mo	$250,000	$165	82
2606 Sunbird Drive Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+0%)	1mo	$235,000	$154	76
20319 S Sabinal Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+10%)	6mo	$260,000	$155	73
3111 Rainpark Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+1%)	1mo	$254,000	$165	72
2926 High Plains Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-14%)	3mo	$260,000	$199	70
2918 Silver Cedar Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,307 (-14%)	1mo	$220,000	$168	67
2906 Fort Stockton Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-14%)	6mo	$229,900	$176	56
20111 Beechview Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,654 (+8%)	1mo	$229,995	$139	55
2715 Silk Tree Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,644 (+8%)	7mo	$285,000	$173	52
20426 Pomegranate Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-9%)	6mo	$265,000	$191	46
2522 Silver Cypress Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,298 (-15%)	1mo	$220,000	$169	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-46,866
• Equity at exit: $54,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-72,370
• Equity at exit: $54,946

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$516 /mo · $6,198/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,430

Max offer price $184,069

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2919 Amber Cliff Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,900	$1.25	43d	1	0.08mi
20102 Twilight Canyon Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1633	$3,395	$2.08	2d	1	0.21mi
2603 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,213	$2.32	1d	39	0.36mi
3130 Birchleaf Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,840	$1.08	43d	1	0.52mi
20000 Saums Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	841	$1,839	$2.19	1d	22	0.55mi
2622 Broomsedge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,050	$0.60	5d	1	0.75mi
2203 Wheathall Camp Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,745	$1.25	43d	1	0.76mi
19638 Southaven Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,769	$1.05	16d	1	0.81mi
3427 W Rainmill Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,850	$1.24	24d	1	0.82mi
2607 Cypressvine Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	19d	1	0.92mi
2503 Silver Trumpet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,791	$1.29	11d	1	0.95mi
2014 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1129	$1,265	$1.12	43d	1	0.97mi
2606 Olster Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,571	$1.03	5d	1	1.00mi
21402 Doral Rose Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,950	$1.05	24d	1	1.02mi
20070 N Navaho Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,695	$1.24	21d	1	1.05mi
19434 Brook Village Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,950	$1.07	43d	1	1.06mi
2000 Westborough Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,857	$1.81	2d	16	1.06mi
19407 Dawn Canyon Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,716	$1.09	43d	1	1.11mi
2411 Shady Brook Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$1,916	$1.12	5d	1	1.15mi
21622 Stonecross Terrace Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,050	$1.15	24d	1	1.27mi
20104 Park Row Blvd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,309	$1.06	43d	1	1.27mi
3507 Banks Run Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,806	$0.93	5d	1	1.40mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 2047 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,419	$1.32	11d	1	1.41mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit DW5 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	2d	1	1.41mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 1607 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,409	$1.31	43d	1	1.41mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,384	$1.28	5d	1	1.41mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 1587 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,408	$1.31	10d	1	1.41mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 2112 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,376	$1.28	2d	1	1.41mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 1583 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,974	$1.18	43d	1	1.41mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit DW4 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1235	$1,639	$1.33	5d	1	1.41mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,963	$1.18	10d	1	1.41mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 3112 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,931	$1.16	2d	1	1.41mi
1562 N Westgreen Blvd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	43d	1	1.43mi
1501 Foxlake Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1181	$1,653	$1.40	24d	1	1.44mi
1550 Westborough Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	43d	1	1.46mi
19403 Misty Cove Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,999	$1.17	5d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   WELCOME TO THIS CHARMING AND WELL-MAINTAINED HOME, OFFERS A SPACIOUS OPEN LAYOUT WITH TILE FLOORING TRHROUGHOUT THE MAIN LIVING AREAS, THE KITCHEN FEATURES AMPLE CABINET SPACE, LIGHT WOOD CABINETRY, ENJOY A BRIGHT AND COMFORTABLE LIVING ROOM WITH COZY FIREPLACE, PERFECT FOR RELAXING EVENINGS. THE HOME ALSO OFFERS A GENEROUSLY SIZED DINING SPACE. CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR SHOPPING, DINNING, IDEAL FOR FIRS-TIME BUYERS. AC UNIT WAS REPLACED ON 2024. COME AND TAKE A LOOK.

2. 2026-03-29
   listed $239,900 Active 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   WELCOME TO THIS CHARMING AND WELL-MAINTAINED HOME, OFFERS A SPACIOUS OPEN LAYOUT WITH TILE FLOORING TRHROUGHOUT THE MAIN LIVING AREAS, THE KITCHEN FEATURES AMPLE CABINET SPACE, LIGHT WOOD CABINETRY, ENJOY A BRIGHT AND COMFORTABLE LIVING ROOM WITH COZY FIREPLACE, PERFECT FOR RELAXING EVENINGS. THE HOME ALSO OFFERS A GENEROUSLY SIZED DINING SPACE. CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR SHOPPING, DINNING, IDEAL FOR FIRS-TIME BUYERS. AC UNIT WAS REPLACED ON 2024. COME AND TAKE A LOOK.

3. 2026-03-03
   historical
4. 2026-02-02
   price $234,000
5. 2026-01-09
   status Active
6. 2026-01-03
   status Pending
7. 2025-10-26
   price $240,000
8. 2025-08-09
   price $249,900
9. 2025-07-01
   listed $254,000 Active
10. 2006-06-12
    soldstatus
11. 2005-10-25
    historical
12. 2005-03-01
    listed $105,900
13. 2004-11-19
    historical
14. 2004-10-28
    listed $110,000
15. 2004-10-27
    historical
16. 2004-04-27
    listed $106,900
17. 2003-11-03
    soldstatus
18. 1996-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,198 · $516/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,198 · $516/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$6,198
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$7,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,895
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+124.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $234,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $254,000 HARMLS
• 2006-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-10-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-03-01 Listed $105,900 HARMLS
• 2004-11-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-10-28 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2004-10-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-04-27 Listed $106,900 HARMLS
• 2003-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,198 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.