13419 Fourth St · Fort Myers Shores, FL 33905

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1973 9,670 sqft lot Est $307k · 35% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special with Strong Income Potential and Flexibility. This property presents an excellent opportunity for buy and hold investors, roommate rental strategies, or a family looking for an affordable home with future potential. Major updates have already been completed, including a newer roof and AC replaced in 2020, along with updated interior paint and flooring throughout. The layout offers unique versatility with three separate exterior entrances, creating the potential for multiple rental streams. With minimal modifications, the home could easily be configured to add additional bedrooms with private entrances, making it ideal for roommate style rentals or maximizing income from a s

Key facts

• Ac replaced
• Half bath
• Newer roof

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• AC REPLACED
• UPDATED INTERIOR PAINT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• HALF BATH
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (0.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.1% in Fort Myers Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#433 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $200k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,281 (0.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.36%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,248
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13344 3rd St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+7%)	1mo	$275,000	$186	82
13513 Marquette Blvd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,357 (-2%)	1mo	$362,500	$267	82
13505 Island Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-5%)	7mo	$460,000	$350	71
2008 Aruba Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+1%)	4mo	$375,000	$268	69
13833 River Forest Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,403 (+1%)	6mo	$300,000	$214	60
2080 E Tobago Cir	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+14%)	12mo	$465,000	$294	57
13007 3rd St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-8%)	9mo	$180,000	$141	53
12931 Fifth St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,304 (-6%)	5mo	$290,000	$222	50
14026 Barcelona Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+14%)	3mo	$309,000	$196	49
14031 Marquette Blvd	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-10%)	9mo	$204,100	$164	42
1966 Bahama Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+12%)	13mo	$369,900	$238	39
2330 Caladium Rd	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-12%)	7mo	$187,500	$154	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,252
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,697
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33905

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,983 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,771/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,725

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $260	+0% $203	+5% $147	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $47	-5% $125	+0% $203	+5% $282	+10% $360
Rate	-1.0pp $304	-0.5pp $254	base $203	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13802 2nd St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,900	$1.05	16d	1	0.17mi
13802 2nd St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,900	$1.05	24d	1	0.17mi
2143 W Tobago Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	24d	1	0.22mi
13606 River Forest Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,860	$1.07	24d	1	0.22mi
13832 1st St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,900	$1.63	15d	1	0.27mi
13861 First St Unit 13863 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,400	$1.60	24d	1	0.33mi
13208 Fourth St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	1.0	1103	$1,500	$1.36	4d	1	0.34mi
13926 1st St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	1.0	982	$1,550	$1.58	16d	1	0.37mi
13214 1st St Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1405	$2,000	$1.42	4d	1	0.37mi
13650 Caribbean Blvd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,700	$1.63	22d	1	0.46mi
13320 Marquette Blvd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$5,500	$3.06	24d	1	0.49mi
2804 River Ridge Blvd Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,350	$0.96	24d	1	0.62mi
12937 Fourth St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	1236	$1,900	$1.54	24d	1	0.65mi
12941 1st St #943 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,350	$1.54	24d	1	0.66mi
2231 Lotus Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,885	$1.44	4d	1	0.68mi
13730 Willow Haven Ct Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1820	$3,000	$1.65	12d	1	0.69mi
2510 Barcelona Ave Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1257	$1,870	$1.49	4d	1	0.72mi
12639 5th St Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	24d	1	0.83mi
12619 Third St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	1.0	1015	$1,950	$1.92	24d	1	0.89mi
14181 Old Olga Rd Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	1512	$1,299	$0.86	2d	1	0.95mi
15688 Spring Line Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,840	$1.25	24d	1	0.98mi
15603 Spring Line Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,900	$1.17	4d	1	1.00mi
14018 Aledo Ct Unit 14018 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$2,450	$1.32	15d	1	1.04mi
15624 Sunny Crest Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,776	$1.38	12d	1	1.04mi
14093 Oviedo Pl Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,850	$1.34	16d	1	1.10mi
12274 1st St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,545	$1.52	16d	1	1.19mi
12274 1st St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,495	$1.47	3d	1	1.19mi
3131 Orangetree Bnd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	1842	$7,000	$3.80	24d	1	1.20mi
2244 Iris Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	24d	1	1.25mi
14236 Oviedo Pl Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,895	$1.38	24d	1	1.28mi
3850 Treasure Oak Way Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,195	$1.21	24d	1	1.29mi
14297 Oviedo Pl Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,795	$1.30	4d	1	1.30mi
3740 Pebblebrook Ridge Ct #102 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1652	$2,500	$1.51	24d	1	1.34mi
2431 Hawks Preserve Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1595	$1,995	$1.25	24d	1	1.35mi
3721 Pebblebrook Ridge Ct #102 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1532	$2,950	$1.93	24d	1	1.35mi
14980 Coopers Hawk Way Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,100	$1.31	24d	1	1.36mi
3460 Lakeview Isle Ct Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1637	$5,500	$3.36	24d	1	1.39mi
3791 Pebblebrook Ridge Ct #102 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1618	$3,900	$2.41	24d	1	1.42mi
3071 Meandering Way #101 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1421	$3,000	$2.11	24d	1	1.48mi
14060 Vindel Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$2,700	$1.46	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   listed $200,000 Active
3. 2025-12-31
   historical
4. 2025-09-11
   status Active
5. 2025-09-07
   status Pending
6. 2025-07-19
   price $230,000
7. 2025-03-18
   listed $260,000 Active
8. 2005-01-05
   soldstatus $127,000
9. 2002-07-25
   soldstatus $84,000
10. 1997-03-13
    soldstatus $47,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,771 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,771 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,771
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,903
• − Management: −$1,903
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$806
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$193
• After-tax cash flow: $2,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers Shores

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #433
• US rank: #7747

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Myers Shores, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,381
• Household income: $71,987
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1358.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 17% Black 9% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.89%
• Current HPI: 268.4598
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.97%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+323.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $200,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-09-11 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2025-09-07 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $230,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listed $260,000 FORTMLS
• 2005-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 1997-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $47,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+23.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,771 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.