15869 Blass Valley Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$247,159

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $240k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Contact Sales for Details

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 15869 Blass Valley Dr, Conroe TX 77302; Status: Active; Last modified: 2026-06-07
• Financial info: List price $247,159

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Spec inventory, Plan name: Adams

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1204

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-611/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,763 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,596
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16125 Sepia Manor St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	3mo	$239,840	$199	90
16408 Windy Cove Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	6mo	$234,460	$195	85
16181 Sepia Manor St	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,204 (0%)	7mo	$239,990	$199	85
15229 Canyon Rapids Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	10mo	$239,990	$199	83
16956 Juniper Blossom Bnd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+0%)	6mo	$228,485	$189	79
16944 Juniper Blossom Bnd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	8mo	$248,847	$207	78
16317 Sun View Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-4%)	5mo	$190,000	$165	72
16293 Sun View Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,264 (+5%)	5mo	$189,000	$150	70
16675 Sterling Cliff St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+7%)	7mo	$261,690	$203	69
16371 Long Valley Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,264 (+5%)	6mo	$190,000	$150	67
16228 Sun View Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,145 (-5%)	5mo	$180,000	$157	67
16699 Sterling Cliff St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+7%)	10mo	$266,440	$207	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-42,628
• Equity at exit: $36,852

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,546
• Equity at exit: $21,370

Cash invested: $69,205 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,296
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$309 /mo · $3,707/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,162

Max offer price $239,789

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $34	+0% $-51	+5% $-136	+10% $-222
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-134	+0% $-51	+5% $32	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $74	-0.5pp $12	base $-51	+0.5pp $-115	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,790
• Closing costs: $7,415
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $247,159 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,159 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,159 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,159 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,159 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,159 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $247,159 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $247,159 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 25-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $247,159 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,845
• − Property taxes: −$3,707
• − Insurance: −$1,236
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − Depreciation: −$7,190
• Taxable loss: −$4,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,160
• After-tax cash flow: $549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good layout and is move-in ready. Potential buyers and renters would appreciate updates to the exterior, kitchen, and lighting to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can modernize the kitchen and appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Fresh flooring can make bathrooms more appealing and increase the property's resale value.
• Resale Updating the paint in the bedrooms — Fresh paint can make bedrooms more inviting and increase the property's resale value.
• Both Upgrading the lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can enhance the overall aesthetic and increase the property's rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the property's appeal and value, both for resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can modernize the kitchen and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Fresh flooring can make bathrooms more appealing and increase the property's resale value. ↑
• Resale Updating the paint in the bedrooms — Fresh paint can make bedrooms more inviting and increase the property's resale value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can enhance the overall aesthetic and increase the property's rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the property's appeal and value, both for resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B