206 Chestnut · Needles, CA 92363

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1964 4,000 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This home has a large open living area along with three bedroom and two bathrooms. The home is located on a corner lot. The front yard and small back yard are both enclosed by chain link and a block wall. A gated driveway extends into a covered carport. The central cooling and heating are electric while the stove/oven and water heater use natural gas. The beautiful Colorado river is literally 1/4 of a mile away. Nearby river recreational areas include swimming beaches, public parks, camping areas, and boat launch facilities.

Key facts

• 4,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1964
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single residential unit (no ADU)
• HOA & community: Street lighting

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story house; Entry at level 1; No shared/common walls; Property listed as fixer; View present
• Construction: Foam roof; Concrete slab foundation; Built year sourced from assessor
• Exterior features: House structure; Front yard; Block wall and chain link fencing; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas and electric range; Eating area located in the living room
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms with shower and tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (central furnace); Heat pump; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: One-level layout; West-facing entry; All bedrooms on the main level; Street lighting in the community
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.1% in Needles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#492 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Needles Unified (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #1,194 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.22%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,592
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
211 Walnut St	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,700 (+6%)	2mo	$205,000	$121	83
571 California Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+1%)	13mo	$145,000	$89	72
525 S L St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+3%)	8mo	$190,000	$114	68
1224 Beach Dr	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,584 (-2%)	6mo	$440,000	$278	56
1205 Marina Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+4%)	8mo	$425,000	$253	54
1023 Bailey Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-10%)	22mo	$240,000	$166	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $27,999
• Equity at exit: $48,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $81,339
• Equity at exit: $67,879

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92363

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,422 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $374	+0% $338	+5% $301	+10% $265
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $282	+0% $338	+5% $394	+10% $450
Rate	-1.0pp $403	-0.5pp $371	base $338	+0.5pp $304	+1.0pp $270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
503 California Ave Needles, CA	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,500	$1.05	14d	1	0.38mi
412 D St Needles, CA	2.0	1.0	1096	$1,200	$1.09	14d	1	0.86mi
1929 Flora Vis Needles, CA	3.0	1.0	1184	$1,700	$1.44	14d	1	1.02mi
316 Bazoobuth St Needles, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	14d	1	1.03mi
316 Cibola St Unit Frt Needles, CA	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,300	$1.02	21d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $129,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 530-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    listed $129,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $666 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$314/yr (+$26/mo · 47.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥116°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$666
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,365
• − Management: −$1,365
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $2,046
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$491
• After-tax cash flow: $3,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626760
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,795
• Composite: 23.35/100
• National rank: #13305
• State rank: #1194 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Needles

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #492
• US rank: #16661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Needles, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,392

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 16% Native American 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Current HPI: 279.7931
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Coming Soon $129,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $666 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.