4464 Key Ranch Rd · Trinidad, TX 75163

$269,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily · 130 Days on market

Built 2025 0.31 ac lot $159/sqft · 18% below area Est $328k · 18% under $4/mo HOA ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$5,000 SELLER SAID TO GIVE IT AWAY! YES $5,000 SELLER CONCESSIONS! Newley reduced price and a credit? Take this now before someone else does. Why wait for vacation when you can live where every day feels like one? Located near Cedar Creek Lake, this home offers the kind of lifestyle that invites you to slow down, breathe deep, and enjoy the simple moments. Picture early mornings with the windows open, a gentle breeze moving through the home as you sip your coffee before a peaceful walk or a quick dog run down the road. Afternoons feel effortless, and evenings carry that calm, lake-area energy, perfect for unwinding after a long day or hosting friends who never want to leave. Inside, the open-concept layout creates a natural flow between the living space and kitchen, making the home feel both welcoming and connected. The kitchen island becomes the gathering spot—whether it’s breakfast before heading out to the lake or late-night conversations that stretch just a little longer. With four bedrooms and two bathrooms, there’s room for family, guests, or a home office without ever feeling crowded. And to help you start this next chapter with ease, the seller is offering $2,000 in concessions, adding extra value and flexibility as you make this home your own. This isn’t just about buying a home, it’s about choosing mornings filled with peace, days touched by summer energy, and a lifestyle that feels like a breath of fresh air.

Key facts

• Kitchen island
• Open concept layout
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• NEAR CEDAR CREEK LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-682 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (36.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (44.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (44.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.5% in Trinidad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,274 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Malakoff ISD (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #187 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,500 (44.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.86%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,411
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -18.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Lbj Ranch Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (+8%)	2mo	$309,000	$170	73
207 Anchor Ranch Rd	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+4%)	8mo	$329,000	$188	68
234 Matador Ranch Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (+3%)	9mo	$799,000	$459	68
157 Loving Ranch Rd	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,876 (+11%)	13mo	$345,000	$184	60
143 Lbj Ranch Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+11%)	7mo	$340,000	$181	57
431 Stirrup Ranch Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (+2%)	8mo	$305,000	$176	54
403 Door Key Ranch Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,770 (+5%)	19mo	$399,999	$226	52
105 Goodknight Ranch Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,718 (+2%)	21mo	$445,000	$259	44
220 Matador Ranch Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,455 (-14%)	20mo	$950,000	$653	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-37,924
• Equity at exit: $92,316

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-37,775
• Equity at exit: $123,054

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75163

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,035/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,358

Max offer price $170,321

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Plumthicket Ln Trinidad, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	44d	1	1.25mi
102 Plumthicket Ln Trinidad, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	44d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-02-26
   price $269,000 1478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1478 chars)

   $5,000 SELLER SAID TO GIVE IT AWAY! YES $5,000 SELLER CONCESSIONS! Newley reduced price and a credit? Take this now before someone else does. Why wait for vacation when you can live where every day feels like one? Located near Cedar Creek Lake, this home offers the kind of lifestyle that invites you to slow down, breathe deep, and enjoy the simple moments. Picture early mornings with the windows open, a gentle breeze moving through the home as you sip your coffee before a peaceful walk or a quick dog run down the road. Afternoons feel effortless, and evenings carry that calm, lake-area energy, perfect for unwinding after a long day or hosting friends who never want to leave. Inside, the open-concept layout creates a natural flow between the living space and kitchen, making the home feel both welcoming and connected. The kitchen island becomes the gathering spot—whether it’s breakfast before heading out to the lake or late-night conversations that stretch just a little longer. With four bedrooms and two bathrooms, there’s room for family, guests, or a home office without ever feeling crowded. And to help you start this next chapter with ease, the seller is offering $2,000 in concessions, adding extra value and flexibility as you make this home your own. This isn’t just about buying a home, it’s about choosing mornings filled with peace, days touched by summer energy, and a lifestyle that feels like a breath of fresh air.

2. 2026-01-16
   listed $279,000 Active 1478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1478 chars)

   $5,000 SELLER SAID TO GIVE IT AWAY! YES $5,000 SELLER CONCESSIONS! Newley reduced price and a credit? Take this now before someone else does. Why wait for vacation when you can live where every day feels like one? Located near Cedar Creek Lake, this home offers the kind of lifestyle that invites you to slow down, breathe deep, and enjoy the simple moments. Picture early mornings with the windows open, a gentle breeze moving through the home as you sip your coffee before a peaceful walk or a quick dog run down the road. Afternoons feel effortless, and evenings carry that calm, lake-area energy, perfect for unwinding after a long day or hosting friends who never want to leave. Inside, the open-concept layout creates a natural flow between the living space and kitchen, making the home feel both welcoming and connected. The kitchen island becomes the gathering spot—whether it’s breakfast before heading out to the lake or late-night conversations that stretch just a little longer. With four bedrooms and two bathrooms, there’s room for family, guests, or a home office without ever feeling crowded. And to help you start this next chapter with ease, the seller is offering $2,000 in concessions, adding extra value and flexibility as you make this home your own. This isn’t just about buying a home, it’s about choosing mornings filled with peace, days touched by summer energy, and a lifestyle that feels like a breath of fresh air.

3. 2025-12-02
   historical
4. 2025-11-10
   price $289,000
5. 2025-10-17
   price $299,000
6. 2025-09-12
   price $309,000
7. 2025-07-28
   price $319,000
8. 2025-07-10
   listed $340,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,035
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$13,252
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,180
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malakoff ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828780
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,970
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3200
• State rank: #187 of 826 in TX

Livability — Trinidad

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1274
• US rank: #22143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,569
• Population (ZIP): 2,569

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 1% European 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Arabic 10% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.03%
• Current HPI: 211.6125
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $269,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $279,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $289,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $299,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $309,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $319,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $340,000 NTREIS