10769 Sugar Point Dr NW · Gould, MN 56633

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 688 Days on market

Built 2015 Fair condition 1.00 ac lot ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom cabin rests on the shores of Leech Lake on Tribal Leased land. This cabin is ready for a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member to purchase and make their year around home as required. The shore line is solid with a great mix of sand and gradual all the way out. The sale of this cabin includes a dock and boat lift. Realtor note: This property is on leased Tribal Land and can only be purchased by a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member

Key facts

• Dock and boat lift
• Solid shore line
• Shores of leech lake

Tags

• SHORES OF LEECH LAKE
• SOLID SHORE LINE
• DOCK AND BOAT LIFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Northland Community Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #395 of 467 in MN (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 688 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $68k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 688 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $49,229
• Equity at exit: $81,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $136,899
• Equity at exit: $154,320

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56633

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,000 Active 688 DOM
2. 2026-01-13
   status Active 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   This 3 bedroom cabin rests on the shores of Leech Lake on Tribal Leased land. This cabin is ready for a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member to purchase and make their year around home as required. The shore line is solid with a great mix of sand and gradual all the way out. The sale of this cabin includes a dock and boat lift. Realtor note: This property is on leased Tribal Land and can only be purchased by a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member

3. 2025-12-22
   status Pending 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   This 3 bedroom cabin rests on the shores of Leech Lake on Tribal Leased land. This cabin is ready for a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member to purchase and make their year around home as required. The shore line is solid with a great mix of sand and gradual all the way out. The sale of this cabin includes a dock and boat lift. Realtor note: This property is on leased Tribal Land and can only be purchased by a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member

4. 2025-07-10
   status Active 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   This 3 bedroom cabin rests on the shores of Leech Lake on Tribal Leased land. This cabin is ready for a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member to purchase and make their year around home as required. The shore line is solid with a great mix of sand and gradual all the way out. The sale of this cabin includes a dock and boat lift. Realtor note: This property is on leased Tribal Land and can only be purchased by a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member

5. 2025-06-14
   historical Contingent - Subject to Financing 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   This 3 bedroom cabin rests on the shores of Leech Lake on Tribal Leased land. This cabin is ready for a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member to purchase and make their year around home as required. The shore line is solid with a great mix of sand and gradual all the way out. The sale of this cabin includes a dock and boat lift. Realtor note: This property is on leased Tribal Land and can only be purchased by a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member

6. 2024-10-09
   price $119,000 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   This 3 bedroom cabin rests on the shores of Leech Lake on Tribal Leased land. This cabin is ready for a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member to purchase and make their year around home as required. The shore line is solid with a great mix of sand and gradual all the way out. The sale of this cabin includes a dock and boat lift. Realtor note: This property is on leased Tribal Land and can only be purchased by a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member

7. 2024-09-25
   price $139,500 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   This 3 bedroom cabin rests on the shores of Leech Lake on Tribal Leased land. This cabin is ready for a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member to purchase and make their year around home as required. The shore line is solid with a great mix of sand and gradual all the way out. The sale of this cabin includes a dock and boat lift. Realtor note: This property is on leased Tribal Land and can only be purchased by a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member

8. 2024-07-26
   price $169,500 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   This 3 bedroom cabin rests on the shores of Leech Lake on Tribal Leased land. This cabin is ready for a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member to purchase and make their year around home as required. The shore line is solid with a great mix of sand and gradual all the way out. The sale of this cabin includes a dock and boat lift. Realtor note: This property is on leased Tribal Land and can only be purchased by a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member

9. 2024-06-20
   listed $187,500 Active 442-char remark

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   This 3 bedroom cabin rests on the shores of Leech Lake on Tribal Leased land. This cabin is ready for a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member to purchase and make their year around home as required. The shore line is solid with a great mix of sand and gradual all the way out. The sale of this cabin includes a dock and boat lift. Realtor note: This property is on leased Tribal Land and can only be purchased by a Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe member

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$78
• After-tax cash flow: $1,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom cabin on Leech Lake requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and paint the interior walls. The dock and natural setting add value, but the home's current condition limits its appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — remodeling in progress
• Minor flooring — wear and tear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both complete bathroom renovation — a fully updated bathroom would significantly increase the home's value
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · remodeling in progress	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
flooring · wear and tear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$9,500–48,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both complete bathroom renovation — a fully updated bathroom would significantly increase the home's value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northland Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2730870
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,741
• Composite: 28.13/100
• National rank: #12208
• State rank: #395 of 467 in MN

Livability — Gould

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,863

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,371 people
• By 2030: 26,311 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 23,945 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 21,889 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 18,435 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 14,478 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.90)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 51% White 32% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 32.6% · R 66.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+31.7 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.89%
• Current HPI: 340.4577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-36.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-14 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-09 Price Changed $119,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $139,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-26 Price Changed $169,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-20 Listed $187,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid