4532 W Sweetbush Way · San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$379,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 246 Days on market

Built 2021 6,035 sqft lot $243/sqft · 10% below area Est $422k · 10% under $62/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful energy-efficient recently constructed home with front and back yard mountain views. You'll love the beautiful chef's kitchen with built-in oven and gas stovetop burners, staggered cabinets with crown molding, granite counters, farmhouse sink, all stainless appliances, breakfast bar, and well-placed pantry. Open floorplan connects kitchen and great room for entertaining, and your back yard is professionally landscaped with green easy to maintain turf and hardscape pavers. Your spacious 2-car garage provides room for storage and has a soft water loop. Neighborhood parks, playgrounds, and walking paths provide opportunities for outdoor activity, and you're conveniently close to downtown Queen Creek with its abundant shopping and restaurants. Welcome home!

Key facts

• Staggered cabinets
• Gas stovetop burners
• Crown molding

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• BUILT-IN OVEN
• GAS STOVETOP BURNERS
• STAGGERED CABINETS
• CROWN MOLDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-700 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (32.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (45.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (45.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 488 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,110 (45.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.90%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $421,618
• List price: $379,900
• Delta: -9.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4041 W Copperleaf Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+3%)	3mo	$374,900	$232	78
3830 W Santa Cruz Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,506 (-4%)	2mo	$338,000	$224	70
4418 W Kirkland Ave	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (+0%)	1mo	$390,000	$248	70
3728 W Carlos Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-4%)	0mo	$329,000	$219	67
3823 W Dancer Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,521 (-3%)	2mo	$339,000	$223	67
4528 W Crescent Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	1mo	$350,000	$228	66
4447 W Mountain Laural Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+11%)	0mo	$395,000	$228	65
4366 W White Canyon Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	0mo	$362,000	$236	63
4589 W Horsenettle Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (+12%)	2mo	$377,500	$215	59
4547 W Foldwing Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+14%)	2mo	$379,000	$212	54
4169 W Erik Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-9%)	1mo	$414,990	$291	53
33025 N Mildred Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,759 (+12%)	2mo	$325,000	$185	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $162,138
• Equity at exit: $342,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $512,253
• Equity at exit: $738,062

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85144

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 488
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,395/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,948

Max offer price $256,155

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-485	-5% $-593	+0% $-700	+5% $-808	+10% $-916
Rent	-10% $-863	-5% $-782	+0% $-700	+5% $-619	+10% $-538
Rate	-1.0pp $-509	-0.5pp $-604	base $-700	+0.5pp $-799	+1.0pp $-899

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4504 W Stonecrop Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,075	$1.15	6d	1	0.09mi
33948 N Beeblossom Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,850	$1.37	17d	1	0.19mi
4590 W Foldwing DR Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,449	$1.36	3d	1	0.41mi
3877 W Naomi Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2010	$1,850	$0.92	6d	1	0.43mi
33810 N Mercedes Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1504	$1,925	$1.28	44d	1	0.48mi
3854 W Carlos Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,825	$1.20	6d	1	0.50mi
3792 W Santa Cruz Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1852	$1,795	$0.97	44d	1	0.51mi
3809 W Five Mile Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,895	$1.41	6d	1	0.60mi
3569 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,550	$0.91	25d	1	0.62mi
33889 N Barbara Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1868	$1,975	$1.06	6d	1	0.65mi
3541 Dreamy Draw Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	1918	$2,700	$1.41	25d	1	0.70mi
35032 N Barrel Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	2213	$3,900	$1.76	2d	1	0.70mi
4165 W Monika Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,450	$1.20	44d	1	0.71mi
33993 N Danja Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,450	$1.23	44d	1	0.73mi
3439 W Oil Well Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	44d	1	0.76mi
4287 W Jeanette Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,450	$1.20	19d	1	0.84mi
4265 W Janie St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,100	$1.14	25d	1	0.90mi
3194 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1925	$1,908	$0.99	44d	1	0.90mi
35623 N Seedling St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,000	$1.09	11d	1	0.91mi
35623 N Seedling St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,450	$1.33	44d	1	0.91mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	13d	1	0.92mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	16d	1	0.92mi
3560 W Mesquite Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,750	$1.20	12d	1	0.92mi
3849 W South Butte Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,846	$0.98	44d	1	0.93mi
3047 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,915	$1.32	44d	1	0.95mi
2993 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,700	$1.32	44d	1	0.98mi
33024 N Madison Way Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	16d	1	1.01mi
4332 W Hannah St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	44d	1	1.02mi
33897 N Wash View Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,980	$1.15	3d	1	1.02mi
3162 W Sunshine Butte Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	22d	1	1.06mi
33856 N Cherry Creek Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1928	$1,850	$0.96	44d	1	1.07mi
2828 Patagonia Ct Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	2230	$2,500	$1.12	44d	1	1.07mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,955	$1.11	11d	1	1.14mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,880	$1.07	3d	1	1.14mi
2822 W Blue River Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,395	$1.49	44d	1	1.18mi
2574 W Sawtooth Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,995	$1.50	44d	1	1.24mi
2699 W Camp River Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$1,975	$1.12	44d	1	1.25mi
2899 W White Canyon Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1981	$1,950	$0.98	3d	1	1.31mi
34437 N Picket Post Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	1507	$1,650	$1.09	44d	1	1.35mi
2460 W Tanner Ranch Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1520	$1,980	$1.30	2d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr
• Likely covers: watergaslandscaping

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,900 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,900 Active 243 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,900 Active 242 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,900 Active 241 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,900 Active 240 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,900 Active 238 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,900 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,900 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,900 Active 233 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,900 Active 232 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $379,900 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,900 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,900 Active 227 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,900 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,900 Active 225 DOM
16. 2025-10-18
    listed $379,900 Active 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Wonderful energy-efficient recently constructed home with front and back yard mountain views. You'll love the beautiful chef's kitchen with built-in oven and gas stovetop burners, staggered cabinets with crown molding, granite counters, farmhouse sink, all stainless appliances, breakfast bar, and well-placed pantry. Open floorplan connects kitchen and great room for entertaining, and your back yard is professionally landscaped with green easy to maintain turf and hardscape pavers. Your spacious 2-car garage provides room for storage and has a soft water loop. Neighborhood parks, playgrounds, and walking paths provide opportunities for outdoor activity, and you're conveniently close to downtown Queen Creek with its abundant shopping and restaurants. Welcome home!

17. 2025-10-06
    historical
18. 2025-10-01
    price $381,499
19. 2025-10-01
    price $399,000
20. 2025-09-26
    price $381,499
21. 2025-09-24
    price $382,900
22. 2025-09-23
    price $385,000
23. 2025-09-16
    price $382,000
24. 2025-09-16
    status Active
25. 2025-09-12
    historical
26. 2025-09-03
    price $382,900
27. 2025-09-03
    price $385,000
28. 2025-09-01
    price $382,900
29. 2025-08-31
    price $387,000
30. 2025-08-18
    listed $382,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,395 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,507 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,113/yr (+$93/mo · 79.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$1,395
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$15,594
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,743
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.94%
• Current HPI: 372.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-18 Listed $379,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $381,499 ARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $399,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $381,499 ARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $382,900 ARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $385,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $382,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $382,900 ARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $385,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $382,900 ARMLS
• 2025-08-31 Price Changed $387,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $382,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+94.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,395 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.