Kerry Townhome Plan · Hinesville, GA 31313

$229,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily · 488 Days on market

Good condition $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two-story, open-concept townhome with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths & 1,411 heated square feet! The home opens up from the entry hallway into a spacious living space. Enjoy a clear view from the kitchen island to family room & dining area. The kitchen is fully equipped with stainless appliances (to include refrigerator), pantry & window looking into the backyard over the sink! Two bedrooms, full bath & primary suite located upstairs, along with a laundry room. The primary suite features 2 walk-in closets & a private bath with dual vanity.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Stainless appliances
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT TOWNHOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING SPACE
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $229,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $265,686.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#51 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 911 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 488 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $202,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 488 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.05%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,686
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -13.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Hamilton Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,462 (+4%)	3mo	$264,400	$181	74
169 Hamilton Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,462 (+4%)	4mo	$265,200	$181	73
85 Hamilton Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,462 (+4%)	6mo	$265,700	$182	72
39 Legacy Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+11%)	2mo	$294,000	$188	72
76 Hamilton Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,462 (+4%)	9mo	$265,300	$181	71
236 Providence Loop	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+9%)	0mo	$282,000	$183	66
324 Abode Ave	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+11%)	5mo	$285,000	$182	65
125 Providence Loop	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+9%)	6mo	$281,400	$182	64
44 Providence Loop	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,581 (+12%)	1mo	$291,200	$184	58
111 Providence Loop	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,581 (+12%)	8mo	$291,500	$184	52
605 Palmetto Trce	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-13%)	8mo	$170,000	$139	42
389 Gray Fox Rd	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-8%)	6mo	$260,000	$201	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-57,806
• Equity at exit: $39,615

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-53,653
• Equity at exit: $22,972

Cash invested: $74,392 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.4 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $262,400 ($173/sqft)
• Median days on market: 98 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 911
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,054 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$332 /mo · $3,985/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,451

Max offer price $220,368

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-130	-5% $-221	+0% $-313	+5% $-405	+10% $-497
Rent	-10% $-475	-5% $-394	+0% $-313	+5% $-232	+10% $-151
Rate	-1.0pp $-179	-0.5pp $-246	base $-313	+0.5pp $-382	+1.0pp $-452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,422
• Closing costs: $7,971
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
96 Beaumont Dr Unit 1 Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,975	$1.41	139d	1	0.01mi
78 Centennial Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1462	$2,100	$1.44	139d	1	0.11mi
193 Heirloom Rd Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,300	$1.64	139d	1	0.12mi
100 Centennial Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1703	$2,150	$1.26	139d	1	0.13mi
767 Abode Ave Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,150	$1.51	5d	1	0.21mi
158 Hamlet Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1458	$1,900	$1.30	5d	1	0.23mi
720 Thornwood Way Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,800	$1.33	5d	1	0.35mi
707 Thornwood Way Hinesville, GA	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	139d	1	0.46mi
130 Hazy Ln Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1518	$2,100	$1.38	139d	1	0.52mi
89 Hazy Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	1482	$2,100	$1.42	5d	1	0.56mi
92 Hazy Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1463	$2,300	$1.57	5d	1	0.57mi
25 Hazy Ln Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1392	$1,995	$1.43	5d	1	0.57mi
601 Tupelo Trl Hinesville, GA	2.0	1.0	1340	$1,200	$0.90	3d	1	0.68mi
601 Tupelo Trl Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,350	$0.90	5d	1	0.68mi
504 Heritage Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,025	$1.59	5d	1	1.00mi
404 Patton Rd Hinesville, GA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,425	$1.48	5d	1	1.15mi
145 Factors Walk Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1810	$2,300	$1.27	5d	1	1.39mi
454 Floyd Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,650	$1.60	5d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $229,900 Active 488 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $229,900 Active 487 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 486 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $229,900 Active 485 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $229,900 Active 484 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 483 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 482 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 481 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 480 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $229,900 Active 479 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $229,900 Active 478 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $229,900 Active 477 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $229,900 Active 476 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 470 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 469 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 468 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 467 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 464 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $229,900 Active 463 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $229,900 Active 462 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $229,900 Active 461 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $229,900 Active 460 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $229,900 Active 459 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $229,900 Active 458 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $229,900 Active 457 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $229,900 Active 456 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $229,900 Active 455 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $229,900 Active 454 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $229,900 Active 453 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $229,900 Active 452 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $229,900 Active 451 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $229,900 Active 450 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $229,900 Active 449 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $229,900 Active 448 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $229,900 Active 447 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $229,900 Active 446 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $229,900 Active 445 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $229,900 Active 444 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $229,900 Active 443 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 442 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 441 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $229,900 Active 440 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 439 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 438 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 437 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 434 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 433 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $229,900 Active 432 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $229,900 Active 430 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $229,900 Active 428 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,883
• − Property taxes: −$3,985
• − Insurance: −$1,328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,972
• − Management: −$1,972
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,729
• Taxable loss: −$8,418
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,020
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,055–$21,165 screening

This two-story townhome is in good condition with a clean and inviting exterior. It offers a spacious interior with hardwood flooring and a fully equipped kitchen. The property is ready for move-in and can be enhanced with minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Resale Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and can prevent water damage. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase property value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joseph Martin Elementary School F GA #784/1,228 Nat'l #31,434/41,679 Middle Midway Middle School F GA #260/470 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High Liberty County High School F GA #131/424 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Hinesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #5200

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hinesville, GA
• County: Liberty County · 58,689 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-24 Listed $229,900 Zillow