17 Lorraine Ave · Buffalo, NY 14220

$167,500

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,780 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1928 4,400 sqft lot Est $292k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Welcome to 17 Lorraine in the Heart of South Buffalo just steps from Cazenovia Park and Mercy Hospital. Newer tear off roof. Good mechanicals with copper plumbing, circuit breakers and copper plumbing. Upper unit has an open front porch and the lower has an enclosed sunroom. Both units have large soaking tubs and hardwood floors. Lower apartment is in need of some repair which will limit funding options. This large 3/3 double has lots of original charm and character ready for someone to capitalize on this opportunity.

Key facts

• Enclosed sunroom
• Open front porch
• Original charm

Tags

• OPEN FRONT PORCH
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• LARGE SOAKING TUBS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ORIGINAL CHARM

Property features AI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $168k).
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,993/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 602% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $120k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $167,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.98%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Lorraine Ave	0.03mi	6/2.0	2,688 (-3%)	6mo	$240,000	$89	88
276 Choate Ave	0.10mi	6/2.0	2,608 (-6%)	4mo	$195,000	$75	81
97 Red Jacket Pkwy	0.26mi	6/2.0	2,588 (-7%)	1mo	$220,000	$85	76
75 Harding Rd	0.48mi	6/2.0	2,703 (-3%)	0mo	$305,000	$113	73
155 Altruria St	0.55mi	6/2.0	2,720 (-2%)	2mo	$169,900	$62	69
51 Olcott Ave	0.34mi	6/2.0	2,592 (-7%)	6mo	$306,000	$118	68
33 Harding Rd	0.52mi	6/2.0	2,670 (-4%)	5mo	$329,000	$123	65
32 Magnolia Ave	0.26mi	6/2.0	2,376 (-14%)	5mo	$225,000	$95	59
896 Abbott Rd	0.58mi	6/2.0	2,966 (+7%)	3mo	$310,000	$105	59
137 Southside Pkwy	0.58mi	6/2.0	2,948 (+6%)	6mo	$290,000	$98	58
96 Stevenson St	0.69mi	6/2.0	2,496 (-10%)	6mo	$272,096	$109	46
30 Geary St	0.70mi	6/2.0	2,438 (-12%)	7mo	$301,000	$123	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $74,446
• Equity at exit: $24,975

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $242,482
• Equity at exit: $14,482

Cash invested: $46,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,993 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $588/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $1,367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,262

Max offer price $167,500

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,462	-5% $1,415	+0% $1,367	+5% $1,320	+10% $1,272
Rent	-10% $1,131	-5% $1,249	+0% $1,367	+5% $1,485	+10% $1,604
Rate	-1.0pp $1,452	-0.5pp $1,410	base $1,367	+0.5pp $1,324	+1.0pp $1,280

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$2,992
Total (2 units)			$2,993

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,875
• Closing costs: $5,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-02
   price $167,500
4. 2026-04-01
   listed $159,900 Active
5. 2019-02-14
   soldstatus $120,000
6. 2001-01-11
   soldstatus $67,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $588 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,121/yr (+$93/mo · 190.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,383
• − Property taxes: −$588
• − Insurance: −$838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,873
• − Management: −$2,873
• − Depreciation: −$4,873
• Taxable income: $14,488
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,477
• After-tax cash flow: $12,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+148.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $167,500 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $588 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.