976 Arco Ln · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1980 0.82 ac lot $105/sqft · 44% below area Est $313k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You will love the hilltop location from this home! The view goes on forever. There is an open living area and a spilt floor plan. The master is good size and has a walk in closet. The secondary bedrooms are also good size and have a convenient bath on that end of the house. Off the living area you will find a large Arizona room. This home fautes an oversized 1 car garage with laundry area. This is a great opportunity! This is an AS IS sale. ''Due to condition, the property may have health/safety risk(s). Prior to entry / access, all parties must sign a Hold Harmless Agreement and the property may only be shown by appointment''

Key facts

• Hilltop location
• Split floor plan
• Open living area

Tags

• HILLTOP LOCATION
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• WALK IN CLOSET
• LARGE ARIZONA ROOM
• OVERSIZED 1 CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,700
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -44.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
598 Paseo Reforma	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,656 (-1%)	8mo	$298,001	$180	79
608 Paseo Reforma --	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,828 (+9%)	7mo	$500,000	$274	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $106,425
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $304,656
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,076/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,473

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $175,000 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    You will love the hilltop location from this home! The view goes on forever. There is an open living area and a spilt floor plan. The master is good size and has a walk in closet. The secondary bedrooms are also good size and have a convenient bath on that end of the house. Off the living area you will find a large Arizona room. This home fautes an oversized 1 car garage with laundry area. This is a great opportunity! This is an AS IS sale. ''Due to condition, the property may have health/safety risk(s). Prior to entry / access, all parties must sign a Hold Harmless Agreement and the property may only be shown by appointment''

16. 2026-03-24
    price $185,000 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    You will love the hilltop location from this home! The view goes on forever. There is an open living area and a spilt floor plan. The master is good size and has a walk in closet. The secondary bedrooms are also good size and have a convenient bath on that end of the house. Off the living area you will find a large Arizona room. This home fautes an oversized 1 car garage with laundry area. This is a great opportunity! This is an AS IS sale. ''Due to condition, the property may have health/safety risk(s). Prior to entry / access, all parties must sign a Hold Harmless Agreement and the property may only be shown by appointment''

17. 2026-02-16
    listed $195,000 Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    You will love the hilltop location from this home! The view goes on forever. There is an open living area and a spilt floor plan. The master is good size and has a walk in closet. The secondary bedrooms are also good size and have a convenient bath on that end of the house. Off the living area you will find a large Arizona room. This home fautes an oversized 1 car garage with laundry area. This is a great opportunity! This is an AS IS sale. ''Due to condition, the property may have health/safety risk(s). Prior to entry / access, all parties must sign a Hold Harmless Agreement and the property may only be shown by appointment''

18. 2021-12-07
    soldstatus $300,000 Closed 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    If you are wanting Privacy and Spectatctular views. this is the one! A 3-2 split bedroom floor plan with a great room open to the kitchen. Circular driveway to well taken care of home! A awsome arizona room with a jaccuzi perfect for a great workout area or home office! Extra storage and more on the property with a large shed! Fenced in area for animals or garden! new roof in 2017.

19. 2021-12-07
    soldstatus $300,000

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    If you are wanting Privacy and Spectatctular views. this is the one! A 3-2 split bedroom floor plan with a great room open to the kitchen. Circular driveway to well taken care of home! A awsome arizona room with a jaccuzi perfect for a great workout area or home office! Extra storage and more on the property with a large shed! Fenced in area for animals or garden! new roof in 2017.

20. 2021-09-09
    listed $310,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    If you are wanting Privacy and Spectatctular views. this is the one! A 3-2 split bedroom floor plan with a great room open to the kitchen. Circular driveway to well taken care of home! A awsome arizona room with a jaccuzi perfect for a great workout area or home office! Extra storage and more on the property with a large shed! Fenced in area for animals or garden! new roof in 2017.

21. 1995-11-06
    soldstatus $82,000
22. 1992-04-23
    soldstatus $86,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,076 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,076 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,076
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$770
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$185
• After-tax cash flow: $2,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+103.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $175,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-16 Listed $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-07 Sold (MLS) $300,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-09-09 Listed $310,000 MLSSAZ
• 1995-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1992-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,076 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.