27150 Shadel Rd #122 · Menifee, CA 92586

$89,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $70k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully upgraded 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offering 1,040 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space in the desirable Bel Air Estates 55+ community. Combining modern updates with low-maintenance living, this home offers the perfect setting to enjoy comfort, convenience, and an active lifestyle. Inside, you’ll find an open and inviting floor plan that makes both everyday living and entertaining feel effortless. Hardwood laminate flooring flows throughout the home, creating a clean and cohesive feel from room to room. For year-round comfort, the living room and both bedrooms each feature their own mini-split system, allowing for efficient and personalized heating

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Mini-split system
• Upgraded home

Tags

• UPGRADED HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HARDWOOD LAMINATE FLOORING
• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM
• TWO CLUBHOUSES
• TWO POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features indicate 0-1 unit per acre; Elevation measured in feet
• Financial info: Monthly land lease fee
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required for residency; Pets: contact manager for details; Land lease applicable

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space; 1 carport space; Located in Bel Air Estates park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District / public water
• Home design: Single-unit mobile home (Freedom model); Single-story; Entry at main level; Has a view
• Construction: Mobile home dimensions approximately 12 ft wide by 40 ft long; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Community pool; Dog park; Mountainous setting; Suburban neighborhood; One shed on the property; Mobile home remains on site

Interior

• Kitchen: Range with stove hood; Gas range; Gas oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; All bedrooms on main level; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Community laundry facilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 3.6% in Menifee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,344/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1163% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,649 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.56%
• DSCR: 3.61
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,680
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27150 Shadel Rd #108	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	1mo	$72,500	$67	93
27150 Shadel Rd #82	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+8%)	4mo	$75,000	$67	84
27601 Sun City Blvd Spc 194	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	14mo	$110,000	$106	66
27150 Shadel Rd #75	0.19mi	2/1.0	960 (-8%)	14mo	$59,000	$61	63
27150 Shadel Rd #37	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+8%)	20mo	$48,000	$43	62
27601 Sun City Blvd #291	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,060 (+2%)	19mo	$110,000	$104	58
27601 Sun City Blvd #143	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,068 (+3%)	18mo	$115,000	$108	57
27601 Sun City Blvd #248	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	12mo	$70,000	$65	57
27601 Sun City Blvd #37	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	16mo	$105,000	$97	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $71,310
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.78×
• Total profit: $196,055
• Equity at exit: $7,781

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92586

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $1,230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27709 Camino Donaire Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1317	$3,000	$2.28	2d	1	0.35mi
28082 Bavaria Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,250	$2.11	2d	1	0.49mi
28230 Avenida Francesca Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,250	$2.02	2d	1	0.64mi
28244 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	2d	1	0.66mi
28301 Encanto Dr Unit 10 Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	17d	1	0.72mi
28301 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,025	$2.32	2d	5	0.77mi
27757 Aspel Rd Menifee, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$2,869	$2.80	2d	15	0.78mi
28377 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	815	$2,150	$2.64	2d	7	0.84mi
27051 Sun City Blvd Unit 1 Menifee, CA	2.0	1.0	729	$1,975	$2.71	2d	1	0.89mi
29196 Crestone Dr Sun City, CA	2.0	2.0	1393	$1,995	$1.43	19d	1	1.09mi
26217 Birkdale Rd Menifee, CA	1.0	1.0	876	$2,150	$2.45	2d	1	1.29mi
26156 Birkdale Rd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1285	$2,000	$1.56	2d	1	1.32mi
28375 Paseo Grande Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1285	$2,395	$1.86	2d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,999 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,999 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,999 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,999 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,999 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,999 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,999 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,999 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,999 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,999 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $89,999 Active
15. 2026-04-07
    historical
16. 2025-12-18
    listed $89,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
• − Management: −$2,250
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $14,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,400
• After-tax cash flow: $11,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Menifee, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,767
• Household income: $57,708
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1163.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $89,999 CRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $89,999 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $58 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.