6415 Creekbend Dr #107 · Houston, TX 77096

$179,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,384 sqft · Condo public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1974 $358/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4/2.5/2 DC: Rare, one of the largest units in the complex. With Saltillo flooring running thru/out the 1st floor, French doors off den to the bricked patio & garden, & the den itself w/ fireplace & ceiling fan. All bedrooms are upstairs, with w/ carpeting. Two bedrooms w/ their own personal balconies. Tremendous walk-in closet in primary bedroom. Kitchen on 1st floor contains SS French door refrigerator, dishwasher, free-standing range & built-in-microwave. The living area looks out to patio w/ bricked step-up, & concrete patio w/ landscaping. Refrigerator, washer & dryer to remain.

Key facts

• Bricked patio
• Ceiling fan
• Personal balconies

Tags

• SALTILLO FLOORING
• FRENCH DOORS
• BRICKED PATIO
• FIREPLACE
• CEILING FAN
• PERSONAL BALCONIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 31 x 54 (concrete road surface)
• HOA & community: Association: Northbrook South; Monthly association fee; Association amenities include gated access, clubhouse, community pool, recreation facilities, maintenance of grounds and structures, sewer, water, trash, and common areas; Community features: clubhouse, community pool, curbs, gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with electric gate; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Security gate; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2 stories; Faces east; Fractional ownership
• Construction: Built in 1974; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second floor) — 13 x 16; Bedroom (Second floor) — 13 x 14; Bedroom (Second floor) — 12 x 13; Bedroom (Second floor) — 12 x 12
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Laminate counters; Tub with shower; Window treatments / coverings; Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry in utility room; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($352/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tinsley El (math 25% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 595 students, 99% FRL); Fondren Middle (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 840 students, 99% FRL); Westbury H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,243 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 192 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $179k implies a 234% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.70%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-31,952
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-44,171
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77096

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,873/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$358
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $80	+0% $29	+5% $-21	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-53	+0% $29	+5% $111	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $119	-0.5pp $75	base $29	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6011 Bankside Dr Unit Labs Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,140	$1.31	45d	1	0.42mi
6222 Rutherglenn Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2202	$2,400	$1.09	45d	1	0.54mi
11418 Braewick Dr Unit 1514798P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1991	$12,178	$6.12	24d	1	0.72mi
5907 Warm Springs Rd Unit 1019555P Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2357	$14,324	$6.08	24d	1	0.80mi
5907 Warm Springs Rd Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2368	$8,750	$3.70	24d	1	0.80mi
6031 Cerritos Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2232	$2,450	$1.10	45d	1	0.96mi
6119 Reamer St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1967	$2,250	$1.14	26d	1	1.03mi
11714 Hillcroft Ave Unit 1019510P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2152	$14,236	$6.62	24d	1	1.07mi
11714 Hillcroft Ave Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2156	$8,750	$4.06	24d	1	1.10mi
8115 Braesview Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2272	$2,500	$1.10	45d	1	1.22mi
6171 Dryad Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2240	$2,000	$0.89	16d	1	1.27mi
5762 Kuldell Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2577	$1,650	$0.64	9d	1	1.27mi
11280 Braes Forest Dr #301 Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2908	$1,000	$0.34	45d	1	1.28mi
6007 Dryad Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1769	$2,175	$1.23	1d	1	1.30mi
5631 Cerritos Dr Unit 1514826P Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	1883	$11,906	$6.32	24d	1	1.35mi
5615 Cerritos Dr Unit 1514815P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1883	$7,300	$3.88	45d	1	1.38mi
12115 Hillcroft Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,961	$1.07	45d	1	1.40mi
6038 W Airport Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$1,755	$1.09	16d	1	1.42mi
10965 S Gessner Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,464	$0.89	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $358 · $4,296/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $179,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 599-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $179,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,873 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$403/yr (+$34/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,873
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − HOA: −$4,296
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$2,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$569
• After-tax cash flow: $921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,032
• Household income: $82,852
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1244.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 18% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -221.78%
• Current HPI: 205.8102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+233.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 1998-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,664 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,873 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.