25 Tree Top Ln · Willow Creek, CA 95573

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1978 0.25 ac lot Est $289k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Tired of renting? This charming and affordable starter home sits on a lovely 0.25-acre corner lot in sunny Willow Creek It features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a living room, and a family/dining room off the kitchen, plus in-house laundry room, central heating and air conditioning, and a cozy wood stove in the family room. Enjoy the deck and solarium at the front, grassy backyard, and a fenced front yard with gravel. This manufactured home comes with a 433a permitted foundation. Sale contingent on Seller finding suitable replacement housing.

Key facts

• Cozy wood stove
• Grassy backyard
• Deck

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• IN-HOUSE LAUNDRY ROOM
• COZY WOOD STOVE
• DECK
• SOLARIUM
• GRASSY BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.25 acre; Roads to property are concrete and paved; Lot features include level and sloped areas; Other structures on site

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway access from Bigfoot Avenue
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Circuit breakers with 220V in laundry
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Irregular lot shape; Has a view
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Other roof material
• Exterior features: Garden; Outbuilding; Additional miscellaneous exterior features; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary suite downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove; Electric heating; Forced air heating; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Primary bedroom on main level; Wood-burning stove fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#422 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Klamath-Trinity Joint Unified (rural): math 11% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #1,307 of 1,400 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Trinity Valley Elementary (150 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $152k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 10→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,323 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.22%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,440
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 Sunset Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-11%)	8mo	$257,550	$201	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $117,820
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $339,318
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95573

• Home prices YoY: 30.8%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,524

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 544-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $199,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $930 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$582/yr (+$49/mo · 62.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 10 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
• − Management: −$1,645
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$382
• After-tax cash flow: $2,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klamath-Trinity Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0619950
• Math proficiency: 11% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $33,475
• Composite: 14.84/100
• National rank: #14389
• State rank: #1307 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Willow Creek

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #14363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Creek, CA
• Population (ZIP): 990

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Pacific Islander 5% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Scottish 6% Italian 5%
• Foreign-born: 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.17%
• Current HPI: 234.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+218.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $199,000 HAR
• 2007-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $151,500 Public Records
• 2000-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $930 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.