Claremont Plan · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$184,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Manufactured · 99 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DBA: Decal: CAV220CA2542899A/B Dealer Number: 91126.Welcome to Los Ranchos, an all-age, active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand-new 2026 4-bed, 2-bath home for sale featuring 1,310.40 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in/near Apple Valley, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, hardwood floors, high ceilings, and natural light. The kitchen boasts features like custom cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with dual vanities and a spacious walk-in shower. Additional bedrooms provide versatility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Located in the desirable Los Ranchos community, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities, including three resort-style pools, a fitness center, two clubhouses, playgrounds, tennis courts, and a half basketball court. Conveniently situated near schools, shopping, dining, major highways, parks, and public transportation, you'll have everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're looking for relaxation or recreation, this community has it all. Ask us about financing options. Call today to schedule a tour!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Quartz countertops
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• HIGH CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY

🏗️ New construction. The $184,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $86,205.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.5% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 526 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,680/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 1069% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $596 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,259 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 114.90%
• DSCR: 6.11
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,205
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: 114.49%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C44	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-1%)	8mo	$95,000	$73	86
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C79	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-1%)	16mo	$125,000	$96	80
20843 Waalew Rd #19	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,344 (+3%)	16mo	$125,000	$93	77
20843 Waalew Unit C4	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-10%)	2mo	$71,000	$60	77
20843 Waalew Rd #12	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+3%)	12mo	$89,999	$67	77
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C94	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,440 (+10%)	13mo	$90,000	$63	73
20843 Waalew C57 Unit C57	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-12%)	3mo	$68,500	$59	72
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C92	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-12%)	5mo	$75,000	$65	70
20843 Waalew #163	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+11%)	13mo	$89,000	$61	60
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B87	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (+6%)	12mo	$111,500	$80	58
20683 Waalew SPC B54 Rd Unit B54	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+10%)	9mo	$130,600	$91	54
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B120	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (+9%)	13mo	$90,000	$63	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $142,701
• Equity at exit: $12,853

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.69×
• Total profit: $354,663
• Equity at exit: $7,453

Cash invested: $24,137 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,680 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$452
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$108 /mo · $1,293/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$773
• Net cashflow: $2,311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $754

Max offer price $86,205

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,551
• Closing costs: $2,586
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16100 Navajo Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	4.0	2.5	1600	$2,450	$1.53	24d	1	1.24mi
16100 Navajo Rd Apple Valley, CA	4.0	2.5	1600	$7,900	$4.94	18d	1	1.24mi
20414 Zuni Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $184,900 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $184,900 1313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1313 chars)

    DBA: Decal: CAV220CA2542899A/B Dealer Number: 91126.Welcome to Los Ranchos, an all-age, active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand-new 2026 4-bed, 2-bath home for sale featuring 1,310.40 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in/near Apple Valley, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, hardwood floors, high ceilings, and natural light. The kitchen boasts features like custom cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with dual vanities and a spacious walk-in shower. Additional bedrooms provide versatility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Located in the desirable Los Ranchos community, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities, including three resort-style pools, a fitness center, two clubhouses, playgrounds, tennis courts, and a half basketball court. Conveniently situated near schools, shopping, dining, major highways, parks, and public transportation, you'll have everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're looking for relaxation or recreation, this community has it all. Ask us about financing options. Call today to schedule a tour!

16. 2026-05-16
    status Active 1313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1313 chars)

    DBA: Decal: CAV220CA2542899A/B Dealer Number: 91126.Welcome to Los Ranchos, an all-age, active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand-new 2026 4-bed, 2-bath home for sale featuring 1,310.40 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in/near Apple Valley, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, hardwood floors, high ceilings, and natural light. The kitchen boasts features like custom cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with dual vanities and a spacious walk-in shower. Additional bedrooms provide versatility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Located in the desirable Los Ranchos community, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities, including three resort-style pools, a fitness center, two clubhouses, playgrounds, tennis courts, and a half basketball court. Conveniently situated near schools, shopping, dining, major highways, parks, and public transportation, you'll have everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're looking for relaxation or recreation, this community has it all. Ask us about financing options. Call today to schedule a tour!

17. 2026-05-15
    historical 1313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1313 chars)

    DBA: Decal: CAV220CA2542899A/B Dealer Number: 91126.Welcome to Los Ranchos, an all-age, active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand-new 2026 4-bed, 2-bath home for sale featuring 1,310.40 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in/near Apple Valley, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, hardwood floors, high ceilings, and natural light. The kitchen boasts features like custom cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with dual vanities and a spacious walk-in shower. Additional bedrooms provide versatility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Located in the desirable Los Ranchos community, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities, including three resort-style pools, a fitness center, two clubhouses, playgrounds, tennis courts, and a half basketball court. Conveniently situated near schools, shopping, dining, major highways, parks, and public transportation, you'll have everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're looking for relaxation or recreation, this community has it all. Ask us about financing options. Call today to schedule a tour!

18. 2026-05-14
    price $187,900 1313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1313 chars)

    DBA: Decal: CAV220CA2542899A/B Dealer Number: 91126.Welcome to Los Ranchos, an all-age, active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand-new 2026 4-bed, 2-bath home for sale featuring 1,310.40 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in/near Apple Valley, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, hardwood floors, high ceilings, and natural light. The kitchen boasts features like custom cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with dual vanities and a spacious walk-in shower. Additional bedrooms provide versatility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Located in the desirable Los Ranchos community, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities, including three resort-style pools, a fitness center, two clubhouses, playgrounds, tennis courts, and a half basketball court. Conveniently situated near schools, shopping, dining, major highways, parks, and public transportation, you'll have everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're looking for relaxation or recreation, this community has it all. Ask us about financing options. Call today to schedule a tour!

19. 2026-03-11
    listed $189,900 Active 1313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1313 chars)

    DBA: Decal: CAV220CA2542899A/B Dealer Number: 91126.Welcome to Los Ranchos, an all-age, active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand-new 2026 4-bed, 2-bath home for sale featuring 1,310.40 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in/near Apple Valley, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, hardwood floors, high ceilings, and natural light. The kitchen boasts features like custom cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with dual vanities and a spacious walk-in shower. Additional bedrooms provide versatility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Located in the desirable Los Ranchos community, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities, including three resort-style pools, a fitness center, two clubhouses, playgrounds, tennis courts, and a half basketball court. Conveniently situated near schools, shopping, dining, major highways, parks, and public transportation, you'll have everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're looking for relaxation or recreation, this community has it all. Ask us about financing options. Call today to schedule a tour!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥100°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,829
• − Property taxes: −$1,293
• − Insurance: −$431
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,533
• − Management: −$3,533
• − Depreciation: −$2,508
• Taxable income: $28,031
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,727
• After-tax cash flow: $21,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Claremont Plan manufactured home in Apple Valley, CA, is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs and maintenance needed, and potential for significant value increases through cosmetic updates and modernizations.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replacing the flooring with modern tiles or hardwood — Improves durability and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to modern models — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers/renters.
• Both Installing smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replacing the flooring with modern tiles or hardwood — Improves durability and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to modern models — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Installing smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $184,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $187,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Listed $189,900 Zillow