YORKTOWN J Plan · Aledo, TX 76008

$460,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,154 sqft · SingleFamily · 353 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Yorktown plan is a two-story home featuring 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, a powder bath, and a game room offering approximately 3,154 square feet of living space. The oversized 2-car garage with an additional 3rd bay is perfect for a growing family or golf cart storage, a favorite among Morningstar residents. The foyer features a mud bench and a ceiling that opens to the second floor. The kitchen includes an island with beautiful quartz countertops, built-in stainless steel appliances, built-in gas cooktop, and a walk-in corner pantry. The family room ceiling vaults to an impressive 19' height and opens to a large covered patio, spanning the width of the family room. The primary bedroom is tucked away at the back of the house with a massive walk-in closet, utilizing space under the stairs. Upstairs features a game room, three secondary bedrooms, and two full baths. Additional features include: 8' Stained Entry Door, 10' First Floor Ceiling Height (per plan), Tankless Gas Water Heater; Revwood flooring at Entry, Hallways (per plan), Kitchen/Breakfast, Living Room, Utility, and Bathrooms; full yard sod, landscaping, and irrigation. This home includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package with an industry-leading suite of smart home products.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered patio
• Gas cooking range

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS COOKING RANGE
• WALK-IN CORNER PANTRY
• LUXURY WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $460,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $531,870.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $461k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-955 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $394k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $344k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Aledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#328 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Aledo ISD (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #11 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mccall El (math 60% / reading 64%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 570 students, 15% FRL); Aledo Middle (math 69% / reading 72%, grade A, #57 of 1,662 statewide, top 3%, 944 students, 11% FRL); Aledo H S (math 87% / reading 50%, grade B, #147 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 1,622 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 1331 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 80d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($406k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $344,406 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $531,870
• List price: $460,990
• Delta: -13.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15212 Everly Ct	0.24mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,122 (-1%)	4mo	$485,000	$155	79
14856 Gladstone Dr	0.40mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,046 (-3%)	0mo	$475,000	$156	70
14904 Gentry Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,004 (-5%)	3mo	$499,000	$166	67
741 Celestial Way	0.68mi	5/3.5	3,154 (0%)	2mo	$459,080	$146	67
15057 Ram Rock Dr	0.66mi	5/3.5	3,164 (+0%)	2mo	$468,080	$148	67
321 Windstream Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,137 (-0%)	4mo	$455,000	$145	66
701 Soaring Hawk Dr	0.68mi	5/3.5	3,164 (+0%)	4mo	$466,560	$147	64
237 Welch Folly Ln	0.33mi	5/3.5	3,510 (+11%)	4mo	$549,900	$157	63
120 Crimson Sky Ct	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,718 (-14%)	4mo	$350,000	$129	58
725 Brightstar Dr	0.73mi	5/4.0	2,956 (-6%)	1mo	$474,990	$161	52
417 Windstream Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,850 (-10%)	3mo	$449,000	$158	50
15068 Green Bluff Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,861 (-9%)	4mo	$504,900	$176	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-144,083
• Equity at exit: $79,304

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-191,608
• Equity at exit: $45,986

Cash invested: $148,924 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 66 active · 52 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $455,852 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 59% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76008

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 1331
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,444 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,789
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$665 /mo · $7,978/yr
• Insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $-955

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,653

Max offer price $393,705

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-587	-5% $-771	+0% $-955	+5% $-1,139	+10% $-1,322
Rent	-10% $-1,227	-5% $-1,091	+0% $-955	+5% $-819	+10% $-683
Rate	-1.0pp $-687	-0.5pp $-820	base $-955	+0.5pp $-1,093	+1.0pp $-1,233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,968
• Closing costs: $15,956
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15105 Stargazer Dr Unit O15105 Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	3141	$3,595	$1.14	79d	1	0.18mi
205 Mineral Point Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2352	$3,100	$1.32	1d	1	0.26mi
228 Open Sky Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2555	$3,395	$1.33	86d	1	0.26mi
701 Brody Trl Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2639	$2,640	$1.00	1d	1	0.28mi
701 Brody Trl Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2639	$3,136	$1.19	43d	1	0.28mi
14829 Star Creek Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	3050	$3,580	$1.17	127d	1	0.33mi
14824 Brettridge Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2782	$3,321	$1.19	184d	1	0.35mi
14848 Complacent Way Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2121	$2,995	$1.41	119d	1	0.37mi
253 Gill Point Ln Aledo, TX	4.0	2.5	2858	$3,650	$1.28	146d	1	0.37mi
14825 Complacent Way Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	3128	$3,600	$1.15	140d	1	0.40mi
15013 Gladstone Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	2.5	2820	$3,046	$1.08	57d	1	0.40mi
144 Peace Pl Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2780	$3,195	$1.15	7d	1	0.43mi
14800 Belclaire Ave Aledo, TX	5.0	3.0	3207	$3,500	$1.09	85d	1	0.45mi
14800 Belclaire Ave Aledo, TX	5.0	3.0	3207	$3,500	$1.09	7d	1	0.45mi
700 Talmadge Ave Hudson Oaks, TX	4.0	3.0	2131	$3,150	$1.48	0d	1	0.68mi
15129 Ram Rock Dr Hudson Oaks, TX	4.0	2.0	2140	$3,500	$1.64	93d	1	0.70mi
713 Brightstar Dr Hudson Oaks, TX	4.0	3.0	2153	$2,950	$1.37	43d	1	0.77mi
14328 Capridge Rd Aledo, TX	4.0	4.5	3509	$5,000	$1.42	142d	1	1.12mi
1617 Purple Thistle Ln Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	3164	$4,150	$1.31	29d	1	1.12mi
2013 Tolleson Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2687	$3,495	$1.30	38d	1	1.18mi
2165 Sandlin Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2679	$3,825	$1.43	184d	1	1.24mi
14204 Overlook Park Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	4.5	3522	$5,200	$1.48	0d	1	1.35mi
1905 Barbette St Aledo, TX	4.0	4.0	3725	$5,250	$1.41	108d	1	1.38mi
1905 Barbette St Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	3725	$5,500	$1.48	1d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $460,990 Active 353 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $460,990 Active 352 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $460,990 Active 351 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $460,990 Active 350 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $460,990 Active 349 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $460,990 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $460,990 Active 346 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $460,990 Active 345 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $460,990 Active 344 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $460,990 Active 343 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $460,990 Active 342 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $460,990 Active 341 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $460,990 Active 340 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $460,990 Active 339 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $460,990 Active 338 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $460,990 Active 337 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $460,990 Active 336 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $460,990 Active 335 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $460,990 Active 334 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $460,990 Active 333 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $460,990 Active 332 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $460,990 Active 331 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $460,990 Active 330 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $460,990 Active 329 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $460,990 Active 328 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $460,990 Active 327 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $460,990 Active 326 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $460,990 Active 325 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $460,990 Active 324 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $460,990 Active 323 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $460,990 Active 322 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $460,990 Active 321 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $460,990 Active 320 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $460,990 Active 319 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $460,990 Active 318 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    price $460,990 Active 317 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $458,990 Active 317 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $458,990 Active 316 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $458,990 Active 315 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $458,990 Active 314 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $458,990 Active 313 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $458,990 Active 312 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $458,990 Active 311 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $458,990 Active 310 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $458,990 Active 309 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $458,990 Active 308 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $458,990 Active 307 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $458,990 Active 306 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $458,990 Active 305 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $458,990 Active 304 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,793
• − Property taxes: −$7,978
• − Insurance: −$2,659
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,306
• − Management: −$3,306
• − Depreciation: −$15,473
• Taxable loss: −$21,187
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,085
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great value with updates that can further enhance its resale and rental appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace outdoor lighting fixtures — Modern lighting enhances curb appeal and safety ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern amenities ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 65/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mccall El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Mcanally Int High Aledo H S B TX #147/1,632 Nat'l #2,426/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aledo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807780
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $102,936
• Composite: 61.94/100
• National rank: #725
• State rank: #11 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Aledo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #328
• US rank: #7200

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 147,426 people
• City population: 25,165
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,165
• Household income: $168,314
• Rent vs Own: 8.2% rent · 91.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.05%
• Current HPI: 242.9582
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $450,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $447,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-20 Listed $442,990 Zillow