Is YORKTOWN J Plan in Aledo, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.2% cap rate and $-945/mo modeled cash flow at a $458,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for YORKTOWN J Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $3,498/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 34.26

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +6.5/10.0
Cash flow +6.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +3.6/5.0
Rent growth +3.5/5.0
1% rule +1.5/10.0
DSCR +0.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$458,990

YORKTOWN J Plan · Aledo, TX 76008

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,154 sqft · SingleFamily · 308 Days on market

Excellent condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Yorktown plan is a two-story home featuring 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, a powder bath, and a game room offering approximately 3,154 square feet of living space. The oversized 2-car garage with an additional 3rd bay is perfect for a growing family or golf cart storage, a favorite among Morningstar residents. The foyer features a mud bench and a ceiling that opens to the second floor. The kitchen includes an island with beautiful quartz countertops, built-in stainless steel appliances, built-in gas cooktop, and a walk-in corner pantry. The family room ceiling vaults to an impressive 19' height and opens to a large covered patio, spanning the width of the family room. The primary bedroom is tucked away at the back of the house with a massive walk-in closet, utilizing space under the stairs. Upstairs features a game room, three secondary bedrooms, and two full baths. Additional features include: 8' Stained Entry Door, 10' First Floor Ceiling Height (per plan), Tankless Gas Water Heater; Revwood flooring at Entry, Hallways (per plan), Kitchen/Breakfast, Living Room, Utility, and Bathrooms; full yard sod, landscaping, and irrigation. This home includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package with an industry-leading suite of smart home products.

Key facts

Open-concept kitchen
Covered patio
Gas cooking range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $459k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-945 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $400k (12.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (23.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $350k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.9% in Aledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 71/100 on livability (#328 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
Aledo ISD (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #11 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Mccall El (math 60% / reading 64%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 570 students, 15% FRL); Aledo Middle (math 69% / reading 72%, grade A, #57 of 1,662 statewide, top 3%, 944 students, 11% FRL); Aledo H S (math 87% / reading 50%, grade B, #147 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 1,622 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 1149 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $349,814 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.65% ✗
Cap rate: 4.18%
Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
DSCR: 0.66
GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $536,630
List price: $458,990
Delta: -15.40%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15212 Everly Ct	0.24mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,122 (-1%)	3mo	$485,000	$155	80
200 Welch Folly Ln	0.24mi	6/3.5 (+1)	3,091 (-2%)	3mo	$560,000	$181	78
14904 Gentry Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,004 (-5%)	1mo	$499,000	$166	69
15057 Ram Rock Dr	0.66mi	5/3.5	3,164 (+0%)	1mo	$468,080	$148	68
321 Windstream Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,137 (-0%)	3mo	$455,000	$145	67
701 Soaring Hawk Dr	0.68mi	5/3.5	3,164 (+0%)	2mo	$466,560	$147	66
237 Welch Folly Ln	0.33mi	5/3.5	3,510 (+11%)	2mo	$549,900	$157	64
120 Crimson Sky Ct	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,718 (-14%)	2mo	$350,000	$129	60
15113 Devonne Dr	0.49mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,918 (-8%)	3mo	$449,000	$154	57
417 Windstream Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,850 (-10%)	1mo	$449,000	$158	51
15165 Ram Rock Dr	0.71mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,984 (-5%)	3mo	$449,990	$151	50
15068 Green Bluff Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,861 (-9%)	2mo	$504,900	$176	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -28.6%
Equity multiple: 0.04×
Total profit: $-144,182
Equity at exit: $80,013

10-year hold

IRR: -25.1%
Equity multiple: -0.27×
Total profit: $-190,698
Equity at exit: $46,398

Cash invested: $150,257 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 48 active · 43 under contract
Months of supply: 5.3 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $459,240 ($159/sqft)
Median days on market: 72 d
This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +7.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76008

Home prices YoY: -16.5%
Rents YoY: 3.8%
Active inventory: 1149
Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $3,498 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,814
Tax est. 1.5%: −$671 /mo · $8,049/yr
Insurance: −$224
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
Net cashflow: $-945

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,694

Max offer price $399,887

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-574	-5% $-760	+0% $-945	+5% $-1,130	+10% $-1,316
Rent	-10% $-1,221	-5% $-1,083	+0% $-945	+5% $-807	+10% $-669
Rate	-1.0pp $-675	-0.5pp $-809	base $-945	+0.5pp $-1,084	+1.0pp $-1,226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $134,158
Closing costs: $16,099
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15105 Stargazer Dr Unit O15105 Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	3141	$3,595	$1.14	34d	1	0.18mi
228 Open Sky Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2555	$3,395	$1.33	41d	1	0.26mi
701 Brody Trl Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2639	$3,236	$1.23	4d	1	0.28mi
14829 Star Creek Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	3050	$3,580	$1.17	82d	1	0.33mi
14824 Brettridge Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2782	$3,321	$1.19	139d	1	0.35mi
14848 Complacent Way Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	2121	$2,995	$1.41	74d	1	0.37mi
253 Gill Point Ln Aledo, TX	4.0	2.5	2858	$3,650	$1.28	101d	1	0.37mi
14825 Complacent Way Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	3128	$3,600	$1.15	94d	1	0.40mi
15013 Gladstone Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	2.5	2820	$3,046	$1.08	12d	1	0.40mi
144 Peace Pl Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2780	$3,395	$1.22	6d	1	0.43mi
14800 Belclaire Ave Aledo, TX	5.0	3.0	3207	$3,500	$1.09	40d	1	0.45mi
15129 Ram Rock Dr Hudson Oaks, TX	4.0	2.0	2140	$3,500	$1.64	48d	1	0.70mi
14328 Capridge Rd Aledo, TX	4.0	4.5	3509	$5,000	$1.42	97d	1	1.12mi
1617 Purple Thistle Ln Aledo, TX	4.0	3.0	3164	$4,150	$1.31	0d	1	1.12mi
2013 Tolleson Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2687	$3,495	$1.30	18d	1	1.18mi
2165 Sandlin Dr Aledo, TX	4.0	3.5	2679	$3,825	$1.43	139d	1	1.24mi
1905 Barbette St Aledo, TX	4.0	4.0	3725	$5,250	$1.41	63d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $458,990 Active 308 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $458,990 Active 307 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $458,990 Active 306 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $458,990 Active 305 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $458,990 Active 304 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $458,990 Active 303 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $458,990 Active 302 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $458,990 Active 301 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $458,990 Active 300 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $458,990 Active 299 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $458,990 Active 298 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $458,990 Active 297 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $458,990 Active 296 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on market $458,990 Active 295 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $453,990 Active 289 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $453,990 Active 288 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $453,990 Active 286 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $453,990 Active 284 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $453,990 Active 282 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $453,990 Active 281 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $453,990 Active 280 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $453,990 Active 279 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $453,990 Active 278 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $453,990 Active 277 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $453,990 Active 276 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $453,990 Active 275 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $453,990 Active 274 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $453,990 Active 273 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $453,990 Active 272 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $453,990 Active 271 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $453,990 Active 270 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $453,990 Active 269 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $453,990 Active 268 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $453,990 Active 267 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $453,990 Active 266 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $453,990 Active 265 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $453,990 Active 264 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $453,990 Active 263 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $453,990 Active 262 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $453,990 Active 261 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $453,990 Active 259 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $453,990 Active 258 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $453,990 Active 257 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $453,990 Active 256 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $453,990 Active 253 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $453,990 Active 252 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $453,990 Active 251 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $453,990 Active 250 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $453,990 Active 248 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $453,990 Active 246 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $41,978
− Mortgage interest: −$30,060
− Property taxes: −$8,049
− Insurance: −$2,683
− Repairs & maintenance: −$3,358
− Management: −$3,358
− Depreciation: −$15,611
Taxable loss: −$21,142

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,074
After-tax cash flow: $-6,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great value with updates that can further enhance its resale and rental appeal.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Replace outdoor lighting fixtures — Modern lighting enhances curb appeal and safety ↑
Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities ↑
Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
Both Add smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern amenities ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 65/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mccall El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Mcanally Int High Aledo H S B TX #147/1,632 Nat'l #2,426/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Aledo ISD
NCES district ID: 4807780
Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $102,936
Composite: 61.94/100
National rank: #725
State rank: #11 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Aledo

Score: 71/100
State rank: #328
US rank: #7200

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Parker County · 147,426 people
City population: 25,165
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 25,165
Household income: $168,314
Rent vs Own: 8.2% rent · 91.8% own
Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 147,426 people
By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -48.05%
Current HPI: 242.9582
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.82%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-03-31 Price Changed $450,990 Zillow
2026-02-10 Price Changed $447,990 Zillow
2025-11-20 Listed $442,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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