750 Silent Valley Rd #48 · Lockhart, TX 78644

$52,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 61 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TAX SEASON IS HERE! STOP RENTING AND BUY A HOME TODAY! Stunning 3 Bedroom Home For Rent! 3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | 1,216 Sq Ft This modern home has it all: Large master bathroom Vinyl wood flooring throughout Spacious family room with dining area Big kitchen, perfect for entertaining Spacious laundry room with extra storage Move In ready condition Community Perks: Basketball court Brand new playground Designated parking Pet Friendly community Fresh new roads This home is available for rent at $1,399 per month and yes, you can own it for just $52,900. Message us today to schedule your tour. Your future home is waiting. Photos may be virtually staged. Visit in person to see the home for yourself.

Key facts

• Vinyl wood flooring
• Extra storage
• Big kitchen

Tags

• LARGE MASTER BATHROOM
• VINYL WOOD FLOORING
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• BIG KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• EXTRA STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $53k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $896 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $53k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.6% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 452 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 3681% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,726 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.57%
• DSCR: 4.23
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $48,502
• Equity at exit: $7,888

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.82×
• Total profit: $115,793
• Equity at exit: $4,574

Cash invested: $14,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,597 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$277
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$66 /mo · $794/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $896

Break-even live

Break-even rent $463

Max offer price $52,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,225
• Closing costs: $1,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Tonkawa Trl Unit 150 Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,499	$1.23	43d	1	0.11mi
606 Guadalimar St Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1036	$1,700	$1.64	43d	1	0.55mi
1100 Monte Vista Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,850	$1.60	17d	1	0.57mi
1309 Monte Vista Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,550	$1.15	43d	1	0.71mi
329 Flores St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	43d	1	0.73mi
1320 Wilson St Unit 236 Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	853	$759	$0.89	43d	1	0.78mi
518 Laredo St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$1,050	$1.46	43d	1	0.80mi
1015 Fir Ln Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	11d	1	0.84mi
1015 Fir Ln Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	4d	1	0.84mi
728 W San Antonio St Unit 730 A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	944	$1,000	$1.06	4d	1	0.89mi
728 W San Antonio St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	944	$1,125	$1.19	4d	1	0.89mi
115 S Frio St Unit H Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.5	959	$1,125	$1.17	43d	1	0.94mi
115 S Frio St Unit A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.5	959	$1,125	$1.17	4d	1	0.94mi
100 N Brazos St Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	1299	$1,600	$1.23	23d	1	1.11mi
117 Quail Cv Unit A Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,575	$1.26	17d	1	1.23mi
331 N Richland Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,800	$1.41	43d	1	1.31mi
1702 Miller Ter Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,895	$1.51	43d	1	1.34mi
413 Abbey Ln Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,750	$1.35	23d	1	1.40mi
903 E Live Oak St Unit A Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	43d	1	1.41mi
903 E Live Oak St Unit B Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,900 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $52,900 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $52,900 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $52,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $52,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $52,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $52,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $52,900 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-05-16
   price $1,509
10. 2026-04-10
    listed $1,399
11. 2026-04-09
    listed $52,900 Active 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    TAX SEASON IS HERE! STOP RENTING AND BUY A HOME TODAY! Stunning 3 Bedroom Home For Rent! 3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | 1,216 Sq Ft This modern home has it all: Large master bathroom Vinyl wood flooring throughout Spacious family room with dining area Big kitchen, perfect for entertaining Spacious laundry room with extra storage Move In ready condition Community Perks: Basketball court Brand new playground Designated parking Pet Friendly community Fresh new roads This home is available for rent at $1,399 per month and yes, you can own it for just $52,900. Message us today to schedule your tour. Your future home is waiting. Photos may be virtually staged. Visit in person to see the home for yourself.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,963
• − Property taxes: −$794
• − Insurance: −$264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,533
• − Management: −$1,533
• − Depreciation: −$1,539
• Taxable income: $10,534
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,528
• After-tax cash flow: $8,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 324.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $1,509 ZUMPER1
• 2026-04-10 Listed for Rent $1,399 ZUMPER1
• 2026-04-09 Listed $52,900 Zillow