39 Magnolia Creek Walk · Nocatee, FL 32081

$499,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,107 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2014 2,613 sqft lot $237/sqft · 23% below area Est $651k · 23% under $300/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience elevated living in this beautifully upgraded 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome located in Willowcove at Nocatee, one of Ponte Vedra's most sought-after master-planned communities, zoned for top-rated Palm Valley Academy. Designed with both style and functionality in mind, this residence features an open-concept floor plan enhanced by wood-look tile flooring, designer trim details, and a cozy gas fireplace that anchors the main living and dining spaces. The chef-inspired kitchen showcases granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, natural gas cooking, 42-inch custom cabinetry, and a spacious walk-in pantry -- ideal for everyday living and effortless entertaining. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for a home office, media lounge, or play area. The spacious primary suite offers tray ceilings, a spa-like ensuite bath with soaking tub, separate walk-in shower, and a large custom walk-in closet system. Two additional bedrooms and a well-appointed laundry room with built-in cabinetry, washer, and dryer included complete the second level. Enjoy private outdoor living from the screened lanai overlooking a serene park setting with walking trails and a playground, creating a rare sense of privacy and green space. Additional highlights include a two-car garage, extended driveway parking, and an installed Tesla charging port. Ideally positioned within walking distance or a short golf cart ride to Nocatee Town Center, Splash and Spray Water Parks, community parks, dining, shopping, and fitness amenities, this home offers a true resort-style lifestyle in Northeast Florida's premier community.

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Upgraded townhome
• Granite countertops

Tags

• UPGRADED TOWNHOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GAS FIREPLACE
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (41.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (41.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Valley Ridge Academy (math 87% / reading 81%, grade A+, #55 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 1,306 students, 14% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 648 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $295k; list at $499k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,610 (41.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.08%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $650,785
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -23.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Paradise Valley Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5	2,109 (+0%)	2mo	$599,000	$284	83
208 Cool Spgs Ave	0.44mi	3/3.0	2,167 (+3%)	0mo	$560,000	$258	75
139 Rialto Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,150 (+2%)	3mo	$615,000	$286	69
216 Cool Springs Ave	0.44mi	3/3.0	2,281 (+8%)	1mo	$595,000	$261	65
56 Bloom Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-11%)	1mo	$490,000	$261	62
206 Park Lake Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,013 (-4%)	2mo	$555,000	$276	58
100 Castlebrook Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,224 (+6%)	2mo	$705,000	$317	57
144 Tavernier Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	2,232 (+6%)	0mo	$579,000	$259	56
88 Cabana Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-15%)	2mo	$522,500	$290	53
174 Treasure Harbor Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,317 (+10%)	1mo	$610,000	$263	50
807 Nocatee Village Dr	0.38mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,400 (+14%)	3mo	$640,000	$267	50
57 Seaport Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,815 (-14%)	3mo	$519,000	$286	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-106,528
• Equity at exit: $132,812

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-159,030
• Equity at exit: $150,299

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,270 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$633 /mo · $7,593/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $-1,174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,756

Max offer price $291,610

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-892	-5% $-1,033	+0% $-1,174	+5% $-1,315	+10% $-1,456
Rent	-10% $-1,432	-5% $-1,303	+0% $-1,174	+5% $-1,045	+10% $-916
Rate	-1.0pp $-923	-0.5pp $-1,047	base $-1,174	+0.5pp $-1,303	+1.0pp $-1,435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
229 Cool Springs Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	3.0	2207	$3,700	$1.68	25d	1	0.47mi
36 Banfield Ln Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,200	$1.90	9d	1	0.51mi
48 Pine Shadow Pkwy Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.5	1134	$3,887	$3.43	5d	46	0.55mi
440 Burbank Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1141	$2,807	$2.46	4d	25	1.16mi
78 Wayfare Ln Ponte Vedra, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$3,100	$1.70	25d	1	1.34mi
82 White Cypress Dr Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.5	2322	$3,450	$1.49	25d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $499,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $499,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $499,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $499,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $499,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-05-15
   price $499,000 1641-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1641 chars)

   Experience elevated living in this beautifully upgraded 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome located in Willowcove at Nocatee, one of Ponte Vedra's most sought-after master-planned communities, zoned for top-rated Palm Valley Academy. Designed with both style and functionality in mind, this residence features an open-concept floor plan enhanced by wood-look tile flooring, designer trim details, and a cozy gas fireplace that anchors the main living and dining spaces. The chef-inspired kitchen showcases granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, natural gas cooking, 42-inch custom cabinetry, and a spacious walk-in pantry -- ideal for everyday living and effortless entertaining. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for a home office, media lounge, or play area. The spacious primary suite offers tray ceilings, a spa-like ensuite bath with soaking tub, separate walk-in shower, and a large custom walk-in closet system. Two additional bedrooms and a well-appointed laundry room with built-in cabinetry, washer, and dryer included complete the second level. Enjoy private outdoor living from the screened lanai overlooking a serene park setting with walking trails and a playground, creating a rare sense of privacy and green space. Additional highlights include a two-car garage, extended driveway parking, and an installed Tesla charging port. Ideally positioned within walking distance or a short golf cart ride to Nocatee Town Center, Splash and Spray Water Parks, community parks, dining, shopping, and fitness amenities, this home offers a true resort-style lifestyle in Northeast Florida's premier community.

9. 2026-03-31
   listed $519,000 Active 1641-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1641 chars)

   Experience elevated living in this beautifully upgraded 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome located in Willowcove at Nocatee, one of Ponte Vedra's most sought-after master-planned communities, zoned for top-rated Palm Valley Academy. Designed with both style and functionality in mind, this residence features an open-concept floor plan enhanced by wood-look tile flooring, designer trim details, and a cozy gas fireplace that anchors the main living and dining spaces. The chef-inspired kitchen showcases granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, natural gas cooking, 42-inch custom cabinetry, and a spacious walk-in pantry -- ideal for everyday living and effortless entertaining. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for a home office, media lounge, or play area. The spacious primary suite offers tray ceilings, a spa-like ensuite bath with soaking tub, separate walk-in shower, and a large custom walk-in closet system. Two additional bedrooms and a well-appointed laundry room with built-in cabinetry, washer, and dryer included complete the second level. Enjoy private outdoor living from the screened lanai overlooking a serene park setting with walking trails and a playground, creating a rare sense of privacy and green space. Additional highlights include a two-car garage, extended driveway parking, and an installed Tesla charging port. Ideally positioned within walking distance or a short golf cart ride to Nocatee Town Center, Splash and Spray Water Parks, community parks, dining, shopping, and fitness amenities, this home offers a true resort-style lifestyle in Northeast Florida's premier community.

10. 2024-05-21
    historical $3,400
11. 2024-04-23
    listed $3,400
12. 2023-12-24
    historical $3,400
13. 2023-12-20
    listed $3,400
14. 2023-12-20
    historical $3,400
15. 2023-12-12
    listed $3,400
16. 2019-08-27
    soldstatus $295,000
17. 2019-08-22
    soldstatus $295,000 Sold 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    Beautifully updated Willow Cove townhouse. You will be greeted by an immaculate paved driveway. Opening the door you will see beautiful wood looking tile throughout the main living area, open concept kitchen, Stainless steel appliances with natural gas, 42' custom cabinetry custom trim details throughout, extended outside entertaining area, neutral color pallet, granite counter tops, and designer features. Upstairs you will find a multi functional loft space and 3 large bedrooms. The master suite features double trey ceilings, a large walk-in shower, separate soaker tub, and a massive walk-in closet. Just behind the property you will find a beautiful and peaceful courtyard for relaxation or entertainment including a serene water fountain. St Johns Schools and access to Splash Park included included

18. 2019-08-09
    status Pending 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    Beautifully updated Willow Cove townhouse. You will be greeted by an immaculate paved driveway. Opening the door you will see beautiful wood looking tile throughout the main living area, open concept kitchen, Stainless steel appliances with natural gas, 42' custom cabinetry custom trim details throughout, extended outside entertaining area, neutral color pallet, granite counter tops, and designer features. Upstairs you will find a multi functional loft space and 3 large bedrooms. The master suite features double trey ceilings, a large walk-in shower, separate soaker tub, and a massive walk-in closet. Just behind the property you will find a beautiful and peaceful courtyard for relaxation or entertainment including a serene water fountain. St Johns Schools and access to Splash Park included included

19. 2019-07-31
    historical Active - Contingent 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    Beautifully updated Willow Cove townhouse. You will be greeted by an immaculate paved driveway. Opening the door you will see beautiful wood looking tile throughout the main living area, open concept kitchen, Stainless steel appliances with natural gas, 42' custom cabinetry custom trim details throughout, extended outside entertaining area, neutral color pallet, granite counter tops, and designer features. Upstairs you will find a multi functional loft space and 3 large bedrooms. The master suite features double trey ceilings, a large walk-in shower, separate soaker tub, and a massive walk-in closet. Just behind the property you will find a beautiful and peaceful courtyard for relaxation or entertainment including a serene water fountain. St Johns Schools and access to Splash Park included included

20. 2019-07-24
    listed $305,000 Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    Beautifully updated Willow Cove townhouse. You will be greeted by an immaculate paved driveway. Opening the door you will see beautiful wood looking tile throughout the main living area, open concept kitchen, Stainless steel appliances with natural gas, 42' custom cabinetry custom trim details throughout, extended outside entertaining area, neutral color pallet, granite counter tops, and designer features. Upstairs you will find a multi functional loft space and 3 large bedrooms. The master suite features double trey ceilings, a large walk-in shower, separate soaker tub, and a massive walk-in closet. Just behind the property you will find a beautiful and peaceful courtyard for relaxation or entertainment including a serene water fountain. St Johns Schools and access to Splash Park included included

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,593 · $633/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,593 · $633/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$7,593
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,139
• − Management: −$3,139
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$23,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,566
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+63.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $499,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $519,000 realMLS
• 2024-05-21 Rental Removed $3,400 NEFLMLS
• 2024-04-23 Listed for Rent $3,400 NEFLMLS
• 2023-12-24 Rental Removed $3,400 NEFLMLS
• 2023-12-20 Listed for Rent $3,400 NEFLMLS
• 2023-12-20 Rental Removed $3,400 NEFLMLS
• 2023-12-12 Listed for Rent $3,400 NEFLMLS
• 2019-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-22 Sold (MLS) $295,000 realMLS
• 2019-08-09 Pending — realMLS
• 2019-07-31 Contingent — realMLS
• 2019-07-24 Listed $305,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,593 · +46.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.