9633 Cobblebrook Dr · Warrington, FL 32506

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 943 sqft · Townhouse public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2005 5,327 sqft lot Est $179k · at est. $83/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently Renovated and Move-In Ready! Adorable Cottage Style attached END UNIT Overlooks "Hampton Lake". This 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Unit Features a Screened Patio to See Glorious Sunsets from your own Backyard! Spacious & Open Living/Dining Combo ~ Kitchen offers a Breakfast Counter facing the Living Areas ~ Master Bedroom has a Large Walk-In Closet ~ Inside Laundry Room PLUS an Attached Storage Room ~ All New Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring in the Living/Dining Areas, Bedrooms, Master Bath and Laundry ** Tile in the Kitchen and 2nd Bathroom ** Freshly Painted All Neutral ** Brand New Stainless Kitchen Appliances ** Brand New Central Heat and Air Unit ** Updated Light Fixtures Throughout among other updates Plus Front Porch and Easy to Maintain Vinyl Sided Exterior! Hampton Lake neighborhood has Much to Offer - So See It For Yourself! Listing Agent has taken all of the information from the County Property Appraiser's website. While the Listing Agent does believe that the acquired information is accurate, the Buyer and/or Buyer's Agent should verify all pertinent details related to this property, including but not limited to parcel dimensions, acreage, school zone, zoning classification, land use & any other information that may affect the Buyer's decision to purchase this property.

Key facts

• Lakefront community
• Water views
• Screened porch

Tags

• LAKEFRONT COMMUNITY
• WATER VIEWS
• SCREENED PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence at 9633 Cobblebrook Dr, Pensacola, FL 32506

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-274/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 53%, grade C+, #816 of 2,144 statewide, top 39%, 534 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Escambia average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $179k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,812 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,170
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9633 Cobblebrook Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	943 (0%)	1mo	$180,000	$191	99
9572 Cobblebrook Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0	888 (-6%)	3mo	$160,000	$180	81
9743 Cobblebrook Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0	960 (+2%)	12mo	$179,000	$186	78
9783 Cobblebrook Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	984 (+4%)	18mo	$186,500	$190	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-29,230
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-22,195
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32506

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,448 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $846/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,477

Max offer price $174,973

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9692 Cobblebrook Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	23d	1	0.10mi
2289 Dog Track Rd Unit b Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,850	$1.73	14d	1	0.26mi
1076 Antigua Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,400	$1.30	21d	1	0.41mi
2018 Marquesas Ln Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,400	$1.25	23d	1	0.51mi
2600 S Blue Angel Pkwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$1,796	$1.52	14d	18	1.01mi
8527 San Juan Calzada Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	786	$1,150	$1.46	23d	1	1.01mi
8584 Alvarado Calzada Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,200	$1.34	23d	1	1.09mi
9775 N Loop Rd #1 Pensacola, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,200	$2.00	23d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-04-01
   listed $179,000 Active
4. 2019-04-15
   soldstatus $110,000 1317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1317 chars)

   Recently Renovated and Move-In Ready! Adorable Cottage Style attached END UNIT Overlooks "Hampton Lake". This 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Unit Features a Screened Patio to See Glorious Sunsets from your own Backyard! Spacious & Open Living/Dining Combo ~ Kitchen offers a Breakfast Counter facing the Living Areas ~ Master Bedroom has a Large Walk-In Closet ~ Inside Laundry Room PLUS an Attached Storage Room ~ All New Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring in the Living/Dining Areas, Bedrooms, Master Bath and Laundry ** Tile in the Kitchen and 2nd Bathroom ** Freshly Painted All Neutral ** Brand New Stainless Kitchen Appliances ** Brand New Central Heat and Air Unit ** Updated Light Fixtures Throughout among other updates Plus Front Porch and Easy to Maintain Vinyl Sided Exterior! Hampton Lake neighborhood has Much to Offer - So See It For Yourself! Listing Agent has taken all of the information from the County Property Appraiser's website. While the Listing Agent does believe that the acquired information is accurate, the Buyer and/or Buyer's Agent should verify all pertinent details related to this property, including but not limited to parcel dimensions, acreage, school zone, zoning classification, land use & any other information that may affect the Buyer's decision to purchase this property.

5. 2019-02-22
   listed $107,000 1317-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1317 chars)

   Recently Renovated and Move-In Ready! Adorable Cottage Style attached END UNIT Overlooks "Hampton Lake". This 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Unit Features a Screened Patio to See Glorious Sunsets from your own Backyard! Spacious & Open Living/Dining Combo ~ Kitchen offers a Breakfast Counter facing the Living Areas ~ Master Bedroom has a Large Walk-In Closet ~ Inside Laundry Room PLUS an Attached Storage Room ~ All New Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring in the Living/Dining Areas, Bedrooms, Master Bath and Laundry ** Tile in the Kitchen and 2nd Bathroom ** Freshly Painted All Neutral ** Brand New Stainless Kitchen Appliances ** Brand New Central Heat and Air Unit ** Updated Light Fixtures Throughout among other updates Plus Front Porch and Easy to Maintain Vinyl Sided Exterior! Hampton Lake neighborhood has Much to Offer - So See It For Yourself! Listing Agent has taken all of the information from the County Property Appraiser's website. While the Listing Agent does believe that the acquired information is accurate, the Buyer and/or Buyer's Agent should verify all pertinent details related to this property, including but not limited to parcel dimensions, acreage, school zone, zoning classification, land use & any other information that may affect the Buyer's decision to purchase this property.

6. 2018-06-27
   historical
7. 2018-05-30
   listed $92,500
8. 2017-10-22
   historical
9. 2017-09-20
   listed $92,500
10. 2016-12-19
    historical
11. 2016-10-04
    listed $89,000
12. 2011-03-18
    historical
13. 2011-03-15
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $846 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$639/yr (+$53/mo · 75.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$846
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,390
• − Management: −$1,390
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$3,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$810
• After-tax cash flow: $536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,549
• Household income: $62,486
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.86%
• Current HPI: 247.6085
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+156.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $179,000 PARMLS
• 2019-04-15 Sold (MLS) $110,000 PARMLS
• 2019-02-22 Listed $107,000 PARMLS
• 2018-06-27 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2018-05-30 Listed $92,500 PARMLS
• 2017-10-22 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2017-09-20 Listed $92,500 PARMLS
• 2016-12-19 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2016-10-04 Listed $89,000 PARMLS
• 2011-03-18 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2011-03-15 Listed $69,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $846 · +22.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.