156 Hilldale Dr · Nederland, TX 77627

$139,678

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,938 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 322 Days on market

Built 1962 0.27 ac lot $72/sqft · 37% below area Est $228k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special on oversized lot. Great schools in Nederland ISD. New roads in Neighborhood with underground storm sewer lines. 2 Bedrooms and 2 bathroom downstairs with 1 Bedroom and 1 Bathroom upstairs. Potential for an additional large 22 x 23 room Upstairs has another living area that can be converted to more bedrooms. Foundation recently leveled. Newer metal roof. Two storage sheds. Large patio.

Key facts

• Large patio
• Two storage sheds
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• UNDERGROUND STORM SEWER LINES
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• LARGE PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.6% in Nederland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in TX, #3,906 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Nederland ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #138 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $966 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 322 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,916 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 322 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.00%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,804
• List price: $139,678
• Delta: -38.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2719 Avenue M	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,908 (-2%)	4mo	$229,900	$120	75
189 Hilldale Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,148 (+11%)	10mo	$185,000	$86	65
3003 Avenue O	0.16mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,051 (+6%)	14mo	$199,900	$97	60
1016 S 27th St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,198 (+13%)	2mo	$279,900	$127	51
2411 Avenue M	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (-5%)	13mo	$335,000	$182	50
1104 S 22nd St	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,923 (-1%)	14mo	$269,900	$140	50
912 S 21st St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-5%)	2mo	$251,500	$136	47
2777 Poydras Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,669 (-14%)	8mo	$370,000	$222	42
4100 Willow Bend Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,080 (+7%)	14mo	$269,900	$130	40
3849 Cobblestone Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-3%)	22mo	$201,500	$107	38
3920 Blackberry Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,136 (+10%)	11mo	$260,000	$122	34
919 S 22nd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,647 (-15%)	14mo	$199,900	$121	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $18,724
• Equity at exit: $20,826

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $103,132
• Equity at exit: $12,077

Cash invested: $39,110 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77627

• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,200/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,317

Max offer price $139,678

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,920
• Closing costs: $4,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
617 Hardy Ave Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,700	$1.31	23d	1	0.48mi
8849 Pinewood Dr Port Arthur, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,949	$1.97	13d	1	0.76mi
2512 Avenue A Unit A Nederland, TX	3.0	1.5	1387	$1,795	$1.29	23d	1	0.86mi
2640 Hickory Cove Ln Port Arthur, TX	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,600	$1.41	13d	1	1.00mi
7724 Golfhill Dr Unit 1514820P Port Arthur, TX	5.0	2.0	2389	$13,073	$5.47	23d	1	1.07mi
3119 Moor Dr Nederland, TX	3.0	1.5	1448	$1,795	$1.24	43d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,678 Active 322 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 417-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,678 Active 321 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,678 Active 320 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,678 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,678 Active 317 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,678 Active 315 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,678 Active 314 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,678 Active 313 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,678 Active 312 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,678 Active 309 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,678 Active 308 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,678 Active 307 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,678 Active 306 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,678 Active 305 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,678 Active 304 DOM
17. 2025-12-03
    price $139,678 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Investor special on oversized lot. Great schools in Nederland ISD. New roads in Neighborhood with underground storm sewer lines. 2 Bedrooms and 2 bathroom downstairs with 1 Bedroom and 1 Bathroom upstairs. Potential for an additional large 22 x 23 room Upstairs has another living area that can be converted to more bedrooms. Foundation recently leveled. Newer metal roof. Two storage sheds. Large patio.

18. 2025-08-05
    price $141,948 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Investor special on oversized lot. Great schools in Nederland ISD. New roads in Neighborhood with underground storm sewer lines. 2 Bedrooms and 2 bathroom downstairs with 1 Bedroom and 1 Bathroom upstairs. Potential for an additional large 22 x 23 room Upstairs has another living area that can be converted to more bedrooms. Foundation recently leveled. Newer metal roof. Two storage sheds. Large patio.

19. 2025-07-30
    listed $147,948 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Investor special on oversized lot. Great schools in Nederland ISD. New roads in Neighborhood with underground storm sewer lines. 2 Bedrooms and 2 bathroom downstairs with 1 Bedroom and 1 Bathroom upstairs. Potential for an additional large 22 x 23 room Upstairs has another living area that can be converted to more bedrooms. Foundation recently leveled. Newer metal roof. Two storage sheds. Large patio.

20. 2025-06-25
    historical
21. 2025-06-03
    price $146,900
22. 2024-12-13
    price $134,500
23. 2024-11-01
    price $145,500
24. 2024-10-04
    price $139,500
25. 2024-09-26
    price $144,500
26. 2024-09-05
    price $149,000
27. 2024-08-23
    listed $154,000 Active
28. 2024-08-13
    historical
29. 2023-04-13
    soldstatus
30. 2023-04-12
    soldstatus
31. 2023-04-06
    historical
32. 2023-03-08
    price $85,000
33. 2023-02-17
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,556 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$356/yr (+$30/mo · 16.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,824
• − Property taxes: −$2,200
• − Insurance: −$1,496
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$4,063
• Taxable income: $3,915
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$940
• After-tax cash flow: $4,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nederland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832280
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,647
• Composite: 44.95/100
• National rank: #2709
• State rank: #138 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nederland

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #3906

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nederland, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 22,357
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,357
• Household income: $78,001
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 572.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.91%
• Current HPI: 176.2132
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+27.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $139,678 HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $141,948 HARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $147,948 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $146,900 HARMLS
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $134,500 HARMLS
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $145,500 HARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $139,500 HARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $144,500 HARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-23 Listed $154,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-13 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2023-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-08 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-17 Listed $110,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,200 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.