1222 Southerland Mill Rd · Henderson, NC 27537

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1955 1.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-bedroom, one-bathroom single-family residence in Henderson, NC sits on an expansive 45,738 square-foot lot, offering substantial outdoor space and privacy. The property provides a solid foundation for those seeking a straightforward residential opportunity in the area. With its generous lot size, this home presents flexibility for various uses and future possibilities. Located outside of a subdivision, this residence offers an independent setting for buyers looking to establish their presence in Henderson.

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Solid foundation
• 1.05 acre lot

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LOT
• SUBSTANTIAL OUTDOOR SPACE
• SOLID FOUNDATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.05 acres; Public maintained road access
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electricity connected; Water connected; Septic connected
• Home design: Site-built single-story home; One level; No common walls
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch; Rain gutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range / free‑standing range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range / free‑standing range; Electric water heater; Carpet flooring; Linoleum flooring
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.1% in Henderson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#583 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Vance County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #166 of 178 in NC (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Vance County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vance County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.92%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,306
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $13,573
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27537

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,476/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,015

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 520-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 45% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,476
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $778
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$187
• After-tax cash flow: $2,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vance County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704650
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,323
• Composite: 19.29/100
• National rank: #8801
• State rank: #166 of 178 in NC

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #21468

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,298
• Population (ZIP): 23,795

Population outlook (Vance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,985 people
• By 2030: 40,286 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 36,372 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 32,466 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 24,229 · -42.3%
• By 2100: 17,784 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Vance

• 2024 margin: D (+13.3) · D 56.3% · R 42.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: 13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.3 2020: D+19.2 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+28.3 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.06%
• Current HPI: 270.3424
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $119,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,476 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.