1424 Yosemite Dr · Antioch, CA 94509

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1965 6,100 sqft lot $294/sqft · 28% below area Est $589k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,100 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (covered)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Seller-owned photovoltaic solar (panels); Electric: solar present / status unknown
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1965
• Construction: Brick and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Living area approximately 1,446 square feet
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard; Partial fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range / cooktop; Built-in oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Family room; Living room; One fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,930 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $588,587
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -27.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1820 Modoc Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+4%)	0mo	$527,000	$349	88
1251 Hillcrest Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	5mo	$523,040	$349	71
91 E Lake Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-5%)	4mo	$560,000	$406	69
117 S Lake Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,632 (+13%)	9mo	$562,000	$344	56
1508 Jacobsen St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-12%)	1mo	$481,000	$379	54
1405 Jacobsen St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-12%)	1mo	$560,000	$441	53
516 Kean Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (+6%)	10mo	$575,000	$376	52
2800 Harris Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	10mo	$570,000	$364	52
1925 Crestwood Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-6%)	9mo	$493,000	$363	48
2016 Glenwood Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,395 (-4%)	11mo	$518,000	$371	48
3031 Barmouth Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,609 (+11%)	10mo	$605,000	$376	46
3006 Windsor Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+12%)	10mo	$515,000	$319	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-90,771
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-122,234
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,869 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,398/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,193

Max offer price $379,845

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-15	-5% $-135	+0% $-256	+5% $-376	+10% $-496
Rent	-10% $-482	-5% $-369	+0% $-256	+5% $-142	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-42	-0.5pp $-148	base $-256	+0.5pp $-366	+1.0pp $-478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1704 Somerset Pl Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1190	$2,700	$2.27	17d	1	0.21mi
2283 Renwick Ln Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,500	$2.48	44d	1	0.27mi
2101 Biglow Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	1.0	1025	$2,900	$2.83	10d	1	0.42mi
2004 Cavallo Rd Unit A Antioch, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$3,450	$2.30	3d	1	0.60mi
600 Wilbur Ave Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,099	$2.56	0d	7	0.83mi
2432 Brazil Dr Antioch, CA	4.0	3.0	1527	$4,100	$2.69	4d	1	0.85mi
2700 Wildflower Station Pl #98 Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,995	$2.60	13d	1	0.87mi
2501 Brazil Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.5	1422	$3,100	$2.18	6d	1	0.88mi
31 Sunset Dr Unit B Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	25d	1	0.94mi
2912 Honeynut St Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1380	$3,275	$2.37	13d	1	1.10mi
30 W 17th St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1321	$2,750	$2.08	44d	1	1.20mi
22 Wightman Ct Antioch, CA	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,900	$2.07	6d	1	1.22mi
112 E 6th St Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,195	$2.44	44d	1	1.25mi
112 E 6th St Unit 6TH-7 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,195	$2.44	44d	1	1.25mi
370 Lawton St Unit Lawton-370B Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,099	$2.21	44d	1	1.38mi
141 El Capitan Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	2.5	1236	$2,500	$2.02	44d	1	1.43mi
304 Robert St Antioch, CA	4.0	2.0	1201	$3,069	$2.56	25d	1	1.45mi
108 El Capitan Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,695	$2.45	44d	1	1.48mi
24 Lawrence Ave Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1178	$2,200	$1.87	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 904-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $425,000 Active 904-char remark
3. 2026-05-05
   historical $425,000 904-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,398 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,230 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,832/yr (+$153/mo · 131.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$1,398
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,755
• − Management: −$2,755
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$10,771
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,585
• After-tax cash flow: $-482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $425,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $425,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,398 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.