5229 9th St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1959 7,732 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,732 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1959

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage facing front; Workshop in garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; See remarks foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Wood fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.65%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,232
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $14,017
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,545 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,726/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,217

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $292	+0% $259	+5% $226	+10% $194
Rent	-10% $137	-5% $198	+0% $259	+5% $320	+10% $381
Rate	-1.0pp $317	-0.5pp $288	base $259	+0.5pp $229	+1.0pp $199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5230 14th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,350	$0.93	15d	1	0.25mi
5414 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,299	$1.07	45d	1	0.29mi
5435 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,400	$1.17	22d	1	0.30mi
5424 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,150	$0.95	45d	1	0.30mi
4940 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	45d	1	0.30mi
5501 9th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$1,800	$0.96	22d	1	0.31mi
5216 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$1,695	$0.92	45d	1	0.32mi
5503 10th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,500	$1.14	22d	1	0.32mi
601 Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1570	$1,400	$0.89	22d	1	0.36mi
5209 15th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2193	$1,849	$0.84	22d	1	0.36mi
4914 11th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,650	$1.07	22d	1	0.36mi
5442 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,349	$1.05	15d	1	0.37mi
5221 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,450	$0.98	15d	1	0.40mi
5522 13th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	15d	1	0.43mi
5417 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2198	$1,600	$0.73	45d	1	0.50mi
5603 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,000	$1.28	15d	1	0.52mi
5518 16th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,700	$1.04	15d	1	0.55mi
4903 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,900	$1.00	15d	1	0.61mi
4803 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,600	$0.91	22d	1	0.68mi
4814 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,795	$1.10	15d	1	0.70mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	45d	1	0.70mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	22d	1	0.70mi
5540 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,350	$1.08	22d	1	0.76mi
5402 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1234	$1,050	$0.85	45d	1	0.85mi
5833 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,125	$0.97	22d	1	0.91mi
5834 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,125	$0.94	22d	1	0.92mi
5839 7th St Unit D Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,050	$0.91	45d	1	0.94mi
4802 Amherst St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	45d	1	0.94mi
5846 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,145	$0.99	22d	1	0.96mi
5713 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,600	$1.07	15d	1	1.00mi
5539 Auburn St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,325	$1.20	45d	1	1.00mi
5407 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,150	$0.95	15d	1	1.02mi
5863 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,325	$1.19	22d	1	1.05mi
305 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1294	$1,200	$0.93	45d	1	1.11mi
6112 7th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,375	$1.12	22d	1	1.11mi
6112 7th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,350	$1.10	45d	1	1.11mi
310 N Brentwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,250	$0.89	45d	1	1.11mi
307 N Clinton Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1435	$1,225	$0.85	45d	1	1.14mi
221 Grover Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,295	$1.09	15d	1	1.15mi
503 N Brentwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	45d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-09
   listed $115,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,726 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,726 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$3,726
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,483
• − Management: −$1,483
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,485
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$356
• After-tax cash flow: $2,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Listed $115,000 LARMLS
• 1984-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,726 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.