14851 Jeffrey #7 · Irvine, CA 92618

$215,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $228k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great potential awaits in this lovely and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,440 sq ft home located in the highly sought-after 55+ community of The Meadows in the heart of Irvine. Featuring an open-concept floor plan ideal for entertaining, this home offers a beautifully remodeled kitchen with granite countertops, rich wood cabinetry, soft-close drawers, and a skylight that fills the space with abundant natural light. An enclosed sunroom provides additional versatile living space, perfect for relaxing, hobbies, or a home office. The generous primary suite features a wall-to-wall closet with closet organizers, while the primary bath boasts granite countertops, rich wood cabinetry, a walk-in showe

Key facts

• Enclosed sunroom
• Remodeled kitchen
• Wall-to-wall closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• WALL-TO-WALL CLOSET
• CLOSET ORGANIZERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: The Meadows (Meadows Trailer Park); Manager approval required for occupancy; Pets allowed with number limits
• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $1,650 (park-managed)
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Senior community; Association amenities include: pool, spa, clubhouse, meeting room, billiard room, gym/exercise room, picnic area, barbecue, multipurpose/recreational room; call for rules; pet rules

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-story; Entry on level 1; Mobile home model Greenbrier (24' x 60'); Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Pier jacks foundation; One story
• Exterior features: Front porch (enclosed); Rear porch; Deck; Patio; Shed; Close to clubhouse; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Water heater unit
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom; Bathtub; Walk-in shower; Bidet; Granite counters
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Granite counters; Gated community; Side entry
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 1.2% in Irvine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#100 in CA, #3,537 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Irvine Unified (urban): math 74% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #31 of 517 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($146k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,775 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.24%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $227,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14851 Jeffrey Rd #241	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$140,000	$97	98
14851 Jeffrey Rd #135	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$205,000	$142	95
14851 Jeffrey #334	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$178,000	$124	94
14851 Jeffrey #222	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$227,500	$158	91
14851 Jeffrey Rd #17	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$297,000	$206	88
14851 Jeffrey Rd #66	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$263,000	$183	88
14851 Jeffrey Rd #298	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,396 (-3%)	12mo	$180,000	$129	85
14851 Jeffery Rd #72	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	9mo	$214,000	$142	84
14851 Jeffrey Rd #25	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	6mo	$195,000	$127	84
14851 Jeffrey Rd #38	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (+7%)	3mo	$268,000	$174	81
14851 Jeffrey Rd #352	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	7mo	$302,500	$200	81
14851 Jeffrey #269	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (+12%)	0mo	$356,000	$221	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.64% appreciation · 2.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $96,832
• Equity at exit: $69,424

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $235,542
• Equity at exit: $89,261

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92618

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,864 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$812
• Net cashflow: $1,567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Locust Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1517	$4,495	$2.96	20d	1	0.27mi
34 Elksford Ave Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1078	$3,280	$3.04	43d	1	0.27mi
4 Austin Irvine, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$2,950	$3.67	1d	5	0.30mi
5011 Greencap Ave Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1216	$4,400	$3.62	4d	1	0.31mi
51 Golden Glen St #1 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1048	$3,700	$3.53	7d	1	0.32mi
31 Golden Glen St Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$3,250	$3.10	11d	1	0.35mi
5151 Walnut Ave #29 Irvine, CA	2.0	3.0	1142	$3,400	$2.98	43d	1	0.43mi
5101 Chateau Cir Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$4,800	$2.91	24d	1	0.44mi
11 Eccelstone Cir Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1480	$4,795	$3.24	24d	1	0.50mi
15431 Lorraine Way Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,500	$3.10	24d	1	0.52mi
8 Albany Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1011	$3,100	$3.07	7d	1	0.53mi
1300 Hayes St Irvine, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$3,122	$3.26	2d	23	0.59mi
43 Alderwood #69 Irvine, CA	3.0	1.5	1220	$3,700	$3.03	20d	1	0.62mi
26 Elderglen Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1104	$4,150	$3.76	20d	1	0.64mi
78 Rose Arch #21 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,950	$3.04	43d	1	0.72mi
1 Autumn Oak Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1538	$5,200	$3.38	18d	1	0.72mi
63 Wildwood Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$2,850	$3.07	43d	1	0.72mi
19 Wildwood #6 Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$3,000	$3.23	3d	1	0.75mi
88 Painted Trellis Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1559	$4,500	$2.89	43d	1	0.75mi
145 Huntington Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1224	$3,900	$3.19	43d	1	0.76mi
317 Huntington Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,100	$3.10	13d	1	0.77mi
30 Dragonfly Irvine, CA	2.0	2.5	1068	$3,800	$3.56	24d	1	0.77mi
86 Strawberry Grv Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	1658	$4,500	$2.71	43d	1	0.78mi
86 Strawberry Grv Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	1658	$4,450	$2.68	18d	1	0.78mi
49 E Yale Loop #26 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1471	$4,300	$2.92	24d	1	0.79mi
365 Huntington #189 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1224	$3,750	$3.06	43d	1	0.79mi
94 Strawberry Grv Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1559	$4,500	$2.89	43d	1	0.80mi
72 Cartier Aisle Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1764	$4,200	$2.38	11d	1	0.80mi
4 Van Buren #313 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	903	$3,300	$3.65	12d	1	0.82mi
29 Autumn Oak Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$2,950	$3.18	7d	1	0.82mi
104 Cartier Aisle Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1764	$4,350	$2.47	3d	1	0.86mi
16 Brookmont #85 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1194	$4,000	$3.35	18d	1	0.87mi
62 Emerald Clover Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1611	$4,800	$2.98	7d	1	0.88mi
30 Sunfish #44 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$4,000	$4.04	3d	1	0.88mi
8 Hollowglen Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$3,345	$3.23	43d	1	0.88mi
144 Velvet Flower Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1611	$5,000	$3.10	7d	1	0.89mi
13 Brookmont #60 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1230	$4,300	$3.50	7d	1	0.90mi
21 Tarocco Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$3,200	$3.36	19d	1	0.90mi
130 Cartier Aisle Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1764	$12,000	$6.80	1d	1	0.91mi
14602 Bel Aire St Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1830	$4,900	$2.68	13d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,710
• − Management: −$3,710
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $16,354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,925
• After-tax cash flow: $14,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Irvine Unified
• NCES district ID: 0684500
• Math proficiency: 74% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $92,078
• Composite: 69.17/100
• National rank: #319
• State rank: #31 of 517 in CA

Livability — Irvine

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #3537

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Irvine, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 287,839
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 66,126
• Household income: $145,731
• Rent vs Own: 59.5% rent · 40.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 4078.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 48% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Chinese 15% Other Indo-European 10% Korean 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.64%
• Current HPI: 441.9409
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $215,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $15 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.